The PGA TOUR is on the tee for the second Signature Event of the 2025 season, as the top names in golf head to Pebble Beach for this week’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. It’s the season debut for Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth, and the event should give us a great finish on an iconic course if the weather cooperates this year. Last year, Wyndham Clark won a weather-shortened version of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am by one stroke over Ludvig Aberg.
Last year’s abbreviated edition was the first year that the event used the current format. For the first two rounds, 80 pros and 80 amateurs play one round at Pebble Beach and one round at Spyglass Hill. Just the pros play the weekend, with the final two rounds each taking place at Pebble Beach. Since there will be no cut for this event, all 80 pros will play four rounds, barring injury or withdrawal.
For more info on the field, the course, the weather, and some key stats, check out this First Look from RotoGrinders.
The focus of this post is strong GPP options who have lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding high-leverage plays is critical for GPP success, so the picks here go against the grain, looking for under-owned options.
All Strokes Gained metrics referenced are from the Rabbit Hole.
Usually, I rely heavily on the Stroked Gained Model in FantasyLabs, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean toward players who excel in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is more sustainable week-to-week than a hot putter.
Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk in exchange for getting a higher ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that often lead to large-field success. To find guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editors note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
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Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.
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Rory McIlroy $10,700
While the mainstream storyline around Rory is his inability to win the majors, he continues to be a strong DFS play and brings lots of leverage this week since his ownership projection is much lower than the other big names. Part of that may be due to his lack of much history at Pebble Beach, but when he’s at his best, he can win anywhere.
This week, Rory has the second-highest SimLeverage in the field since his ownership projection is under 15%. He has the fourth-highest ceiling, median and floor projections along with the fourth-highest Perfect%, but his ownership projection is barely in the top 10.
Last year on the PGA TOUR, Rory had 15 top 25s in 19 events, including wins at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans and the Wells Fargo Championship, along with his runner-up finish at the U.S. Open. Rory finished 2024 with a win at the DP World Tour Championship in November, and he started his DP World Tour season at the Hero Dubai Desert Classic earlier this month, where he was the two-time defending champion. He had a slow start before an excellent Final Round that saw him climb to a T4.
If he carries over that form, he definitely has a chance to compete this week, and getting him at low ownership is a good way to help your lineup stand out with some leverage at the top. You can either partner Rory with your other favorite star play or use him with chalky value plays and still have some solid differentiation for tournament contests.
Justin Thomas $9,800
The other player who brings huge leverage near the top of the salary structure is Justin Thomas, who has the third-highest SimLeverage in the field. Thomas ranks just behind Rory with the fifth-highest Perfect% and just behind him in ownership projection at just under 15%. The public seems to be fading him and Rory since they haven’t won big in a while, with Thomas’s last win coming at the 2022 PGA Championship. However, both stars’ lower ownership makes them perfect tournament targets.
Thomas comes in with excellent form after finishing second at The American Express two weeks ago. He also finished runner-up last fall at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP in Japan and in third place at the unofficial Hero World Challenge in December.
Over the last 16 rounds, Thomas leads this elite field in Total Strokes Gained, ranks second in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and third in Strokes Gained: Approach.
JT is also the focus of converging trends due to his course history. Last year, he returned to the Pebble Beach Pro-Am for the first time in 10 years and finished T6 with three rounds under 69. He’ll look to stay hot overall and on these courses, and since people are playing the other big names, it looks like his ownership will not be nearly as high as his track record and current form merits.
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