The second major of the golf season is on the horizon next week as the PGA Championship gets ready to get fired up at Oak Hill in Rochester, New York. Before that event begins, though, there’s one more tournament as part of the regular PGA TOUR season. The pros will be teeing it up in Texas for the AT&T Byron Nelson just outside of Dallas at TPC Craig Ranch.
For each of the last two years since being canceled during COVID, this event has been held at this venue, and K.H. Lee has emerged victorious. Lee will be back looking for a three-peat this year, but he’ll be up against a tough field that includes Texas native Scottie Scheffler and top international names like Tyrell Hatton and Hideki Matsuyama, who will be returning from a neck injury. Jordan Spieth was originally planning to play but was forced to withdraw due to a wrist injury.
This week is a full-field event with normal cut rules, so there will be 156 golfers teeing it up and looking to earn value FedExCup points. It’s a great chance for young golfers on the rise or fringe players trying to stay on the PGA TOUR to get important points and for fantasy players to get to know some of the newer names in this sport.
The course has been adjusted from a par 72 to a par 71, and the 17th hole has been reimagined as a stadium hole. Don’t worry, though–scores are expected to be relatively low as long as the weather doesn’t become too much of an issue. For more on what stats to pay special attention to and what golfers fit the profile, check out Matt Vincenzi’s stats preview.
In this post, we focus on players with lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding these high-leverage plays with low ownership is critical for GPP lineups. I’ll try to highlight ways to go against the grain and take advantage of golfers who many fantasy players may overlook or pass by due to risk factors.
Since these are GPP picks, we also can accept a little more risk if it raises the ceiling of the lineup. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownerships create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that usually lead to large-field success.
This weekly post focuses on players who are strong plays in GPP contests. These contests usually have large numbers of entries and pay out big prizes to the top few percent. The biggest example this week is the DraftKings $700K Pitch and Putt, which pays out $200K to the winner. In large contests like this one, it is critical to try and target players who have a chance to outperform salary expectations and come with low projected ownership.
The players highlighted will be good options if they deliver in all formats, but they come with risk factors that usually keep them from being the safest plays. Safety and reliability should be the focus of lineups in cash and double-up contests, where finishing in the top spot isn’t quite as important. On the other hand, GPPs call for high-risk, high-reward options with high ceilings and low projected ownership. To find specific guidance for all the different kinds of contests, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A couple of key new stats to specifically use for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
Usually, I rely on the Stroked Gained Model, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean into players that gain shots on approach since week-to-week putting performance can be extremely volatile, even for the best players on the PGA TOUR.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools that FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editors note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
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High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Tyrrell Hatton $10,100
At the top of the salary structure, Scheffler stands alone with an impressive 42.7% projected ownership and comes in with outstanding form and with the most proven pedigree in the field by a wide margin. If you do decide to pivot in some of your GPP lineups, though, Hatton has a strong case as the best alternative.
Hatton is in the second-most optimal lineups in our sims and comes with a +1.4% SimLeverage compared to Scheffler’s -2.5% SimLeverage. While he does bring the second-highest projected ownership in the field, he also has the second-best odds to win the tournament and finish in the top 10, according to sportsbooks.
Earlier this year, Hatton had three top 10s at the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and THE PLAYERS Championship. At THE PLAYERS, he finished solo second behind only Scheffler. He added another top 10 last week at the Wells Fargo Championship, clawing his way to a tie for third after sharing the lead after Round 2.
Hatton will be getting his first look at this course, but he ranks in the top 10 on the PGA TOUR in SG: Off The Tee and SG: Approach. He has the game to contend again this week and can make sense as a pay-up pair for Scheffler surrounded by cheap differentiators or as an alternative to Scottie if you think he may be caught looking ahead to next week’s major.
Of all the players priced at over $9K, Hatton has the second-highest SimLeverage.
Si Woo Kim $9,100
The only player with higher SimLeverage than Hatton with a salary of $9K or more is Si Woo Kim, who actually has the third-highest SimLeverage in the entire field thanks to his projected ownership of just under 11%.
Kim missed the cut last year after finishing T55 two years ago on this track. He missed the cut at the RBC Heritage two weeks ago, but he bounce back with a made cut last week at Quail Hollow. His T43 gave him nine made cuts in 11 tournaments dating back to when he won the Sony Open in Hawaii in January.
In his career, Kim has proven to be a streaky producer, and if he gets things rolling, he can contend in these low-scoring events. He is a high-risk play, but he’s one of the few options that offer leverage in this price range.
He comes in under the radar, but that actually makes him a nice against-the-grain option since every other player with a salary of at least $9K is projected for over 15% ownership in this shallower field.
Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Seamus Power $8,900
Power is one of the two players in the field that have better SimLeverage than Si Woo. He is projected for just under 10% ownership but has a 14.4% Perfect%. Power has the best Perfect% of all the players under $9K in the entire field but is barely in the top 10 in projected ownership of the players in that price range.
Power was in my picks last week and finished in the top 20 the Wells Fargo Championship, but he may be less popular this week after a salary bump of almost $2K. Although it had been a while, his finish last week was his eighth top 25 of the season, including a win at the Bermuda Championship last fall.
There are some parallels between that victory in a low-scoring event and what seems to be the likely scoring average this week at TPC Craig Ranch. Power has also enjoyed his two trips to the Nelson over the past few seasons. He finished T9 and T17 with an impressive scoring average of 67.50.
With such a low ownership projection, he is one of my favorite plays of the week since he brings such good upside.
Tom Hoge $8,500
With so much ownership concentration expected above $9K, there are actually several players in the $8K-$9K range that offer good leverage. Min Woo Lee, in his quest for special temporary membership, and Aaron Wise, in his return from a mental health hiatus, both perform well in our sims. However, I like the ceiling of Hoge as a better option from this price range for GPP play.
Hoge is a boom-or-bust producer, but he can go low in a hurry when he’s on his game. He has not played in the past two weeks after a top-15 finish at the Zurich Classic, playing alongside Harris English. Hoge finished tied for third at both THE PLAYERS and the Sentry Tournament of Champions earlier this year after winning the QBE Shootout as part of a team with Sahith Theegala.
Despite a pair of missed cuts in his two most recent individual stroke play events, Hoge has a game that fits this kind of event and should be able to contend this week. He finished in the top 20 last year at the Nelson after scoring 68 or lower in each of his four rounds.
As a result of his scoring prowess, he has the second-highest ceiling projection of all players under $9K.
Value PGA DFS Picks
Scott Stallings $7,700
Stallings finished third at TPC Craig Ranch two seasons ago and followed that up with another top 25 at the venue last year. The 38-year-old typically does better on Bentgrass greens like the ones on this track and has proven he can excel in low-scoring events. He hasn’t won since 2014, but he has made the cut in 11 of 15 events this season with four top 25s.
In his past seven events, he has exceeded salary-based expectations five times, including each of his past three events with made cuts and an average Plus/Minus of 16.3 DraftKings points.
Coming to this venue with this form appears to be a nice set of converging trends for Stallings, who has a positive SimLeverage and the third-highest leverage of all players with salaries in the $7,000s.
Ryan Palmer $7,100
Palmer is another veteran option in this price range with a positive SimLeverage and a good ceiling. Like Stallings, he has made the cut both years that the tournament has been held at TPC Craig Ranch. Last year, the Texas native posted his only top 10 of the season at this event, riding a 62 in the second round to a tie for fifth.
It has been an unspectacular season for Palmer to this point, with nine missed cuts in 15 events. However, he did snap a string of four straight missed cuts last week at Quail Hollow, where he ended up T35 after a final-round fade. His ball-striking numbers are trending the right way, though, and that, along with his return to the Lone Star State for a home game, could be enough to help him outproduce salary-based expectations.
Palmer has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of any player under $7.5K and is only projected for ownership of just over 5%. With such low ownership projections, I have to go with veterans Stallings and Palmer even though I also really like both Brandon Wu and Dylan Wu, who are also in this price range but come with much higher expected ownership.
Sleeper PGA DFS Picks
James Hahn $6,900
Hahn is another veteran who took advantage of the scoring opportunities at TPC Craig Ranch and notched a top 10 here last year. It was one of his three top 10s last season and came mostly due to an impressive 61 on Saturday. One of those other top 10s came at the Wells Fargo Championship last year, but Hahn missed the cut last week as the event returned to Quail Hollow.
Hahn is projected for under 1% ownership this week despite his success on this track last season. Before missing the cut last week, he played the weekend at the Mexico Open and the RBC Heritage, which was an elevated event. While that’s not a lot of great recent form, it’s better than many of the other options under $7K in this lighter field.
Among players under $7K, Hahn offers the fifth-highest leverage and the sixth-highest SimLeverage. The veteran is a nice way to play a cheap option with the potential to get a made cut and decent finish if he can pick up where he left off on this track last season.
Vincent Whaley $6,500
Whaley has the highest SimLeverage of any player under $7K, but there is obviously a lot of risk at the bottom of this field, where many of the players aren’t even PGA TOUR regulars. Whaley hasn’t played since the Shriners last fall, so it’s hard to know what kind of form to expect from the 28-year-old.
It makes sense that he’d look to return from his wrist injury at this course, where he finished T26 and T25 the past two seasons. It’s in his home town according to reporting from Georgia Tech blogs, and the former Yellowjacket will hope some home cooking is enough to get him back into the mix. Last year, Whaley made 16 cuts on the PGA TOUR and posted six top-25 and two top-10 finishes.
There’s definitely risk, given his unknown health and form, but there’s plenty of upside, which the sims help identify as well for a player who comes with an ownership projection under 2%.
Some other bargain longshot plays worth a look if you want to go even cheaper are Ryan Armour ($6,400), Satoshi Kodaira ($6,400), and Roger Sloan ($6,200).
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