Last week was fun. We got to see Jason Day dominate a packed field and survive a weekend’s worth of putting on greens that rolled as if they were made of cement. This week, the Tour heads back to Texas for the AT&T Byron Nelson Championship. The event is held at TPC Four Seasons in Dallas, which underwent a major makeover in 2007, now setting up as a Par-70, 7,200-yard course complete with 12 Par-4s, two Par-5s, four Par-3s.
Don’t let the lack of Par-5s mislead you, as this course sets up better for the long ball than you may think, despite its short stature. I have a stock Player Model that I tweak week to week, and I weight Long-Term Driving Distance (LTDD) fairly high to begin with, so I won’t be making many changes. Weather is likely to play a large part in this event and needs to be monitored closely: There have been some early reports that round one could be in jeopardy due to thunderstorms.
Let’s look at some of the course history at the Byron Nelson. Here are the top-25 finishes dating back to 2011:
We have a decent amount of repeat top finishers, eight of whom are in the field again this week:
My man Keegan Bradley makes yet another appearance in the weekly article, and he will be dealt with later. [Editor’s Note: That sounds ominous.]
Also present are Dustin Johnson and Matt Kuchar, both of whom had solid showings last week at The Players Championship and are likely to be popular selections this week.
$9,000 – $12,500
We have to talk about Kuchar ($10,500). There is nothing flashy about Kuch’s game, but time and again he has shown an ability to overcome his 286.2-yard LTDD. His history at this course (making the cut each year since the course redesign) is among, if not, the best we have to pick from this week. The problem with Kuchar is that he played incredibly well last week, resulting in a third-place finish. In theory that’s good, but it’s also likely to lead to high tournament exposure. Still, his history here and recent form are enough to warrant serious consideration in both cash games and tournaments this week.
Charley Hoffman ($10,800) is strictly a tournament option. He missed the cut last week and is $300 more expensive than Kuch. As a result, most DFS players will likely pivot away from Hoffman and toward Kuch because of the perceived safety and salary savings. As a result, Hoffman will likely be under-rostered. Driving Accuracy (DA) hurt Hoffman at The Players, where he hit only 35.7 pecent of his fairways but surprisingly managed to hit 25 of 36 Greens in Regulation (GIR) on his way to missing the cut by only a single stroke. His putting hurt him as well, as he averaged nearly two putts per GIR. Given the randomness of putting and the relative unimportance of DA this week, we shouldn’t hold his missed cut last week against him.
If neither Kuch nor Hoffman gets your juices flowing, take a look at Brooks Koepka ($9,600). His Adjusted Round Score (Adj Rd Score) has seen a slight increase throughout his last three events, despite averaging over a putt per round more than he has over the past 72 weeks. He has the length (306.3-yard average LTDD) to take full advantage of some of the shorter Par-4s and his 10 Pro Trends are the second-highest in this week’s slate.
The only golfer with more Pro Trends than Koepka is Dustin Johnson ($11,900), who is the high-priced chalk. He has the highest LTDD and Recent Adj Rd Score in the slate. DJ is excellent, but there’s nothing sneaky about playing him. If you do so, you will want to differentiate elsewhere in your lineup if your goal is to take down a large-field guaranteed prize pool.
$7,000 – $8,900
Keegan Bradley’s ($7900) Course Adj Rd Score of 68.7 is the highest of any golfer in this price range with at least two appearances at the Byron Nelson. After winning this event in 2011, Keegan has made four consecutive cuts and hasn’t finished outside of the top 30. But a large majority of his past events were played with an anchored putter, which has since been banned by the PGA Tour. He ranked in the top half of the field in strokes gained putting last week, and his recent putts per round is 0.5 putts lower than his long-term average. I’m on board with some exposure to Bradley in tournaments, but until he shows more Consistency he will remain strictly a tournament option.
Gary Woodland ($8,500) has made the cut in six consecutive appearances at this event. He managed to play into the weekend despite averaging over 30 putts per round in four of those six appearances. He had his best finish (T7) in 2014, when he finally got the flat stick working to an average of 27.8 PPR. He can let it rip as well, as shown in his LTDD of 305.5 yards. His Recent Adj Rd Score of 69.3 indicates that he’s coming into this event in solid form.
Only $400 more than Woodland, Ryan Palmer ($8,900) is an equally intriguing option. With nearly similar LTDD and Adj Rd Scores, Palmer has also managed to make five straight cuts at this event and will come into this year’s tournament with a streak of twelve straight made cuts. He has broken into the top 10 in only one of those 12 occasions (4th place at the Texas Open), but he is as solid of a play this week as Woodland. Both golfers serve as excellent options in a balanced approach to roster construction.
Things aren’t pretty near the bottom of this salary range, but there is one golfer who catches my eye, and that is Lucas Glover ($7,500). Remember, this course features 12 Par-4s, and Glover is seventh on Tour in Par-4 scoring this season. This will be his first appearance at the Byron Nelson, but he is in great form, evidenced in his Recent Adj Score of 68.4. For more on Glover, check out this week’s PGA Plays of the Week, which will be out later today.
$5,400 – $6,900
This bottom tier is especially thin because of the weaker field, but there are a few golfers I may be willing to roster in tournament lineups. Basically, I just want anyone I roster in this salary range to make the cut. Anything past that is gravy.
Scott Stallings ($6,900) has made the cut in three straight PGA Tour events, and his Recent Adj Rd Score of 68.7 is among the best in this range of salaries. His recent form is much better than his long-term average, so it’s possible that he could regress to his mean. His putting has been great recently, so which will win out: His recent form on the greens or his prior Byron Nelson performances in which he averaged over 30 putts per round? The fear of regression will keep him far from my cash game lineups, but I will give him some exposure as a punt play in tournaments.
By LT Adj Rd Score, Jerry Kelly ($6,700) is a top-three golfer in this tier. He is also coming off of an incredible performance at The Players Championship, where he led the field in DA and GIR on his way to a top-20 finish. Kelly’s lack of length off of the tee is cause for concern, but if he can carry his ball striking from last week into the Byron Nelson then he has a good chance of playing into the weekend.
Long Off Of The Tee
It’s not a great field, and it’s not the greatest of tournaments, but d*mn right we are going to play it.
In case you actually went outside this weekend and don’t live your life scrolling through Twitter, I’m going to leave you with a highlight from last week’s tournament. DFS favorite Will Wilcox made an ace on the famous 17th hole and celebrated just how any of us would in that situation. It was an awesome sight. For you losers normal people who went outside this weekend, check it out.
Side note: I got stuck in a YouTube wormhole when grabbing this video and stumbled across a random Will Wilcox interview in which he was asked what he would do if he were president for a day. His answer: Lower taxes and let a lot of people out of prison. Wilcox for president!
Good luck this weekend!
