After getting the Florida Swing off to a great start at the Cognizant Classic, the PGA TOUR moves from Palm Beach Gardens to Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club & Lodge for this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational. The API has a little extra juice this season since it’s one of the PGA TOUR’s Signature Events. Coupled with THE PLAYERS Championship it sets up a great two weeks of golf in the Sunshine State that golfers hope will give them great momentum through the Spring leading up to the Masters.
As a Signature Event, this week’s tournament will have a limited field that includes the biggest names in golf. To show how important this week is, 69 of the 70 qualified pros will tee it up this week, with the lone exception being Tony Finau. Big names like Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland, Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, and Max Homa are all back in action this week.
Those superstars will be joined by the top players so far this season who rank highly in the current FedExCup standings. Mattieu Pavon, Chris Kirk, Hideki Matsuyama, and Jake Knapp are some of the players who have had good recent results. Austin Eckroat is set to make his debut at Bay Hill after winning in Monday’s finish at PGA National, while runner-ups Min Woo Lee and Erik Van Rooyen also played their way into this week’s elite field.
The cut rules for this week’s Signature Event are the same as the one at The Genesis Invitational a few weeks ago out West. The top 50 and ties will make the weekend in addition to any players within 10 shots of the lead at the end of Round 2. It should be a slightly gentler cut for DFS players than usual, but it also depends on how tough Bay Hill plays and if anyone can run away to a big lead on the rest of the field.
The course at Bay Hill is one of the most well-known and difficult on the PGA TOUR. It plays as a par 72, and typically, the rough is grown thick to bring a “major championship” feel to the venue. Don’t expect super-low scores this week, especially if things get windy. Even though it is a long course, typically Strokes Gained: Approach ends up being the key to success along with strong putting on the Bermuda greens, which are typical for Florida layouts.
In this post each week, we’ll focus on players who are strong GPP options. That means they have lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding this kind of high-leverage play is critical for GPP success. The picks here go against the grain to take advantage of players who may be overlooked and under-owned.
Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk if it raises the lineup’s ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that can lead to large-field success.
GPP contests are contests that have large numbers of entries and pay out huge prizes to the top few percent. This week, the largest GPP on DraftKings is the $1M Spring Sand Trap, which awards $200,000 to first place.
The players highlighted below will be good options in all formats if they deliver, but they come with risk factors that usually keep them from being safe plays. Consistency and reliability should be the focus of lineups in cash and double-up contests, where finishing in the top spot isn’t quite as important as in GPP tournaments. To find specific guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
Usually, I rely on the Stroked Gained Model, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean into players that gain shots on approach since week-to-week putting performance can be highly volatile, even for the best players on the PGA TOUR.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools that FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editors note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Xander Schauffele $9,800
At the top of this elite field are 11 players with salaries of $9,000 or higher. Scottie Scheffler has the highest salary and ownership projection in the field, but if you’re looking to go against the flow and get some high-salary leverage, Xander Schauffele is an intriguing alternative. Schauffele’s ownership projection is under 15%, which puts his SimLeverage at almost 5%, which is the third highest of any player in the field and the highest of players with salaries over $8,000. He also ranks in the top five in the field in Perfect%.
I’m not sure why Schauffele is getting overlooked unless it’s just his lack of recent wins. While he hasn’t won on the PGA TOUR since the 2022 Scottish Open, he has been playing well. He has four top 10s in his five events in 2024, including a T4 at The Genesis Invitational, which was the last Signature Event. He and Patrick Cantlay both had a good shot before struggling in the final pairing at Riviera, and Hideki Matsuyama passed them.
Schauffele hasn’t played in the last two weeks, but he does have a decent history at Bay Hill. He finished in the top 25 in 2020 and finished T39 after making the cut last season. His versatile all-around game is a good fit anywhere, but he is specifically a good fit on this track that emphasizes longer approach shots and bogey avoidance, which are two of his strongest statistical categories. Getting him at such low ownership and a salary under $10,000 gives you plenty of ways to go with the rest of your roster this week.
Ludvig Aberg $9,500
Aberg is another very strong option to consider in the top tier. He has the third-highest median, ceiling and floor projections in the field behind only Scheffler and Rory McIlroy. His SimLeverage is just a little lower than Xander’s since his ownership projection is a little bit higher, but he still offers a top-five SimLeverage and a top-five Perfect%. Aberg also matches 10 Pro Trends, trailing only Rory and Scheffler in that category.
For the most part, Aberg has been making his debut at courses this Spring but has still been able to post very good results. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in 13 straight tournaments on the PGA TOUR and DP World Tour dating back to last August. During that run, he won the European Masters and the RSM Classic and finished in the top 20 at the Farmers Insurance Open, AT&T Pebble Beach and Genesis Invitational.
Aberg played at Bay Hill last year and finished in the top 25 in one of his first PGA TOUR appearances. His accuracy off the tee usually makes him a great fit on courses where the rough is especially penalizing. His long approach game should also serve him well this week, and he showed he can figure out Bay Hill greens last season, gaining five strokes with the flat stick. In his small sample size, Bermuda greens seem to be his preferred surface, and I expect his impressive emergence to continue over the next several weeks in the run-up to Augusta.
Now in beta testing: our PGA DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Justin Thomas $9,000
Just under $9,000 are some strong and popular options whose ownership projections look oversaturated. If you can save salary with Xander or Aberg, though, you may be able to have enough salary cap space to spend just a little more and go with Thomas in the mid-priced tier to gain better leverage. His ownership projection is just over 15%, while his ceiling, median, and floor projections are each just barely in the top 10 in the field.
After a disappointing 2023, Thomas has looked much better to start 2024. He finished in the top 12 at the American Express, the AT&T Pebble Beach, and the Phoenix Open before missing the cut at the Genesis Invitational. He doesn’t have extensive course history at Bay Hill but did finish in the top 25 last year at this event, his first appearance on this track in eight years.
Thomas has the tee-to-green game to compete and contend at tough tracks like Bay Hill, and as soon as his putter cooperates even a little bit, he should be able to get back in the winner’s circle. The switch to Bermuda greens should benefit Thomas, who has won eight of his 10 tournaments in the US on that surface.
Jason Day $8,200
While Day doesn’t have quite the form that Thomas brings, he does have a very strong course history at Bay Hill. He won this event in 2016 and has five top 25s in his seven career appearances, including a top 10 last year during his career resurgence.
Day has the highest Perfect% of all players with salaries under $9,000 and the second-highest ceiling, median, and floor projections in that price range. His ownership projection is even lower than Schauffele’s, even though his salary is lower than others with similar Vegas odds.
He surprisingly missed the cut at Torrey Pines, where he has a good history, but has exceeded salary-based expectations in his other four tournaments in 2024. He finished in the top 10 at each of the past two Signature Events at the AT&T Pebble Beach and the Genesis Invitational. The Aussie has proven he can post high finishes on this track and in similar fields, making him a relatively safe play with a great ceiling and leverage at this salary.
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Value PGA DFS Picks
Matthieu Pavon $7,900
Since arriving on the PGA TOUR, Matthieu Pavon has been a great fantasy asset even though he has been making his course debut at every venue. He has made the cut in each of his five tournaments on the PGA TOUR in 2024 with a win at the Farmers Insurance Open and top 10s at the Sony Open in Hawaii and the AT&T Pebble Beach. He looked just fine after moving from California to Florida as well, finishing T28 last week at PGA National.
The 31-year-old Frenchman broke through last fall on the DP World Tour with a win at the Open de Espana and top 10s at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, the Andalucia Masters, and the DP World Tour Championship. He has historically putted better on Bermuda than any other surface, so even though he’s making his debut, he’s a nice play for a strong finish this week. He enters this week as one of the hottest players in golf and has continued to post high finishes in his first tournaments at iconic venues like this one.
Of all the players with salaries under $8,000, Pavon has the second-highest ceiling, median and floor projections. He has the fifth-highest Perfect% in that price range and only a 10% ownership projection.
Rickie Fowler $7,100
Even with so many options in the $7,000 range, it’s still surprising to see Fowler’s ownership projection under 3%. Rickie is always a popular play due to his name recognition and avid following, but he’s coming into Bay Hill flying a little under the radar.
Fowler looked good last week at PGA National, making the cut and finishing T41 after a bit of a fade in the Final Round. He also made the cut at the Genesis Invitational and finished T35 after starting the year with missed cuts at the WM Phoenix Open and The American Express. Fowler switched to a new driver last week and improved significantly off the tee. If he can continue that trend and get his putter to cooperate, he seems to be trending in the right direction.
Historically, Rickie loves playing the Palmer. He has made the cut in seven straight years at Bay Hill with three top 20s. Even when he was struggling the most with his game, he played well enough to make the weekend at Arnie’s place.
Sleeper PGA DFS Picks
Emiliano Grillo $6,800
Min Woo Lee and Erik Van Rooyen are two of my personal favorites who earned their way into this event with strong showings last week, but both have very high ownership projections this week. To get more leverage in this price range, Grillo is a strong option to consider, with his ownership projection under 4%.
Grillo took last week off after finishing T33 in Mexico. He fell short of salary-based expectations in that tournament for the first time in 2024 after six straight strong showings to start the year. He posted four top 25s in those six tournaments with his best result a top 10 at the Sony Open in Hawaii.
In his career at Bay Hill, Grillo has made the cut in six of seven appearances with three top 25s. He finished in the top 10 back in 2017 and made the cut with a T39 last season. He ranks in the top 10 in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green per round at this course, and he brings great upside for a play under $7,000 with such low ownership.
Taylor Moore $6,300
Moore is another cheap option that offers good leverage with low ownership and a good course history at Bay Hill. The 30-year-old from the University of Arkansas has made the cut in each of the last two years, finishing T42 and T39. He proved he can win at difficult Florida venues with his 2023 Valspar Championship victory, which he’ll defend in a few weeks.
Moore comes back to the Sunshine State with good momentum as well after five ceiling performances in his last 10 tournaments. He had made 10 straight cuts on the PGA TOUR dating back to last August and finished T31 at The Genesis Invitational in his most recent appearance. For a player who brings both strong form and solid history, getting him at under 5% projected ownership is a great value leverage play.
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