The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday only features one NBA Playoff game, but fear not, there are still ways to get your fix of daily fantasy basketball. FanDuel is offering a $300,000 guaranteed prize pool with a $100,000 payout for first place, and DraftKings is offering a $350,000 guaranteed prize pool with a $100,000 payout for first. The format is a little different: FanDuel rosters consist of one guard, one forward/center, two utilities, and one “MVP (which has 1.5x multiplier for scoring), while DraftKings rosters simply consist of six utility slots.
There can still be an edge on a one-game slate like this, so let’s dive into the matchup and strategy for each site.
Philadelphia 76ers (-4.5) at Boston Celtics | O/U: 205
8 p.m. ET | TNT
76ers (104.75 Implied Points)
The Celtics won the first three meetings between these two teams during the regular season, but their third matchup in London represented a bit of a turning point for the 76ers. They beat the Celtics in that final meeting and have undoubtedly been the better of the two teams since that point. Over the last 43 games of the regular season, the 76ers posted a Net Rating of +8.5 and carried that success into the NBA Playoffs, defeating the Miami Heat in the first round in five games. The 76ers are currently -450 favorites against the shorthanded Celtics — and deservedly so.
Joel Embiid returned in Game 3 of the Heat series, and the 76ers are now 3-0 with him in the lineup during the postseason. Embiid scored at least 40 DraftKings points in each game despite playing no more than 31 minutes in any of them. He was guarded primarily by both Aron Baynes and Al Horford when these teams met during the regular season, but that responsibility will likely fall more on Baynes this time around. Embiid handled that matchup well, exceeding his season average by 1.6 points per 100 possessions.
The reason Embiid will likely be guarded by Baynes is that as the season progressed, Horford spent more time guarding Ben Simmons. Horford was extremely effective in that matchup, and Simmons’ overall production against Boston was dismal (per the Trends tool):
Simmons failed to return value in any contest, which makes him an intriguing fade candidate in Monday’s contest. He’s the most expensive player on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and he’ll likely be a popular MVP choice on the latter.
That leaves Jayson Tatum to guard Dario Saric, and Saric absolutely destroyed Tatum during the regular season. Saric exceeded his season average by 9.2 points per 100 possessions in that matchup, shooting 8-of-11 from the field and 2-of-4 from 3-point range. He didn’t play well in Game 4 or 5 of the Miami series, which could make him an intriguing buy-low candidate Monday.
J.J. Redick has exploded for at least 31.5 DraftKings points in each of his past two games, and Redick could be in for a big Game 1 with Jaylen Brown not expected to play for Boston. Brown was by far the team’s best perimeter defender this season according to ESPN’s Defensive Real Plus-Minus, and he held Redick below his normal usage rate when matched up on him during the regular season.
Robert Covington has been pretty quiet during the postseason, but he’s always capable of putting up a big game. Unfortunately, Covington was brutal in four matchups against the Celtics during the regular season:
For that reason, it might make sense to target Marco Belinelli, especially on DraftKings at just $4,200.
Celtics (100.25 Implied Points)
If Brown does in fact miss Game 1, the Celtics could be a strong team to target. The majority of their players have seen bumps in usage with both Brown and Kyrie Irving off the court this season:
Marcus Smart has seen the largest bump in usage, resulting in an average of 0.93 DraftKings points per minute. Smart played 32 minutes in Game 7 against the Bucks and is an interesting target at his current price point across the industry. He could even be worth some consideration for the MVP slot on FanDuel, where most entrants will likely opt for a higher-priced option.
Jayson Tatum played 39 minutes in Game 7 against Milwaukee and could be in line for a similar workload today. Unfortunately, he’ll have to deal with the elite on-ball defense of Covington, who graded out as the best defensive wing in the league in Defensive Real Plus-Minus by a significant margin.
Only two members of the Celtics posted a positive DraftKings Plus/Minus against the 76ers during the regular season: Marcus Morris and Al Horford.
Morris was by far the Celtics’ best option and could see a few additional minutes if Brown is inactive. He’s only been seeing approximately 26 minutes per game in the postseason, but he could still be a nice value at his current salary given his average of 0.99 DraftKings points per minute with Brown and Irving off the court:
Horford seems like a very safe option given his current role on offense and on defense. He exceeded his season average in points per 100 possessions when defended by Saric and Embiid, so he could be in line for a nice series.
Lastly, there’s Game 7 hero Terry Rozier. Rozier posted 52.5 DraftKings points in that contest but was the beneficiary of some extremely hot shooting (10-of-16 from the field and 5-of-8 from 3-point range), so he could be due for some regression in today’s contest. He was guarded primarily by Redick during the regular season matchups with Philly, and Redick held him to 4.9 fewer points per 100 possessions than his season average.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA News Feed.
Pictured above: Jayson Tatum
Photo credit: Paul Rutherford – USA Today Sports
