The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a two-game slate starting at 1 p.m. ET.
Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers (-5.5) | O/U: 199
Cavaliers (102.25)
The Cavs enter Sunday afternoon’s elimination game as a clear favorite, but with an implied team total over six points lower than the other favorite on the day’s slate, the Houston Rockets. That’s because implying that the Cavs are a “team” is somewhat of a stretch at this point, but, per NBA rules and regulations, LeBron James is required to have four other guys out on the floor with him.
On Friday I mentioned that LeBron wasn’t the top stud in our Models (that’s usually noteworthy on a small slate, especially in the playoffs), but that’s not the case Sunday. LeBron is priced at $12,500 to James Harden‘s $12,000 on FanDuel and $12,100 to Harden’s $10,800 on DraftKings, but he comes with a double-digit advantage in floor projection and a near double-digit advantage in ceiling projection as well (both of which use a PECOTA-style sim score model to analyze how the 30 most comparable players have performed in the past).
The home-court advantage the Cavs secured for this series by holding onto the No. 4 seed doesn’t just improve the Cavs’ chances of winning (would they even be a favorite on the road in this spot?), but it also turns LeBron from a good DFS play to a great one:
(DraftKings scoring, via FantasyLabs’ NBA Trends tool)
Speaking of home court, this nugget from The Action Network’s Matt Moore is worth noting as we scour for value on a small slate:
But, in reality, this is the best way to think about it: Home teams in Game 7s since 2000-2001 have shot 46% from the field and 37% from 3-point range. Road teams have shot under 42% from the field and just 33% from deep.
No player on the Cavs is more reliant on shooting than Kyle Korver, who is projected for the top Plus/Minus on the team outside of LeBron. Korver is a great shooter no matter the venue, but his shooting percentage at home from the field overall (47.2%) and from 3 (45.3%) was better than his road marks (44.6% and 42.1%, respectively) during the regular season.
Kevin Love has been held to seven points or fewer in two of the three road games in this series, and that’s been a trend all season:
It’s not like Love has been great at home in this series either, but Game 1 at home was the only time he’s hit value on DraftKings in this series. He’s a shaky play but has a Bargain Rating of 90% on DraftKings and an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.69.
J.R. Smith is a low-upside punt play whose biggest positive is his 35.1 projected minutes. Jordan Clarkson, Larry Nance Jr., George Hill, Rodney Hood, and Jeff Green are all projected to play between 18 and 20 minutes, which caps their upside even at bargain-basement prices. For what it’s worth, Nance has the best matchup of the bunch according to Opponent Plus/Minus.
Pacers (96.75)
Victor Oladipo broke out of his slump in a big way in Game 6, posting a 28-point, 13-rebound, 10-assist triple-double along with four steals. Oladipo has had a wide range of outcomes in this series, scoring between 36 and 37 DraftKings points three times but also going over 55 twice and over 70 in the aforementioned Game 6. He has a Bargain Rating of 90% on DraftKings.
Domantas Sabonis has emerged as the Pacers’ leading scorer over the past three games at 20.0 points per game. In each of those games, Sabonis has scored between 19 and 22 points and pulled down between five and six rebounds. He’s outscored and out-rebounded Myles Turner for three straight games, and Turner has also seen a reduction in minutes during that span.
Forwards Bojan Bogdanovic and Thaddeus Young have the top matchups of the day according to Opponent Plus/Minus; they’re the only two players whose DraftKings Opponent Plus/Minus clears +6.0. Both players have put up big games in this series, with Bogdanovic topping out at 37.5 DraftKings points and Young’s high mark even better at 43.5. Because Young is more capable of filling it up in all areas of the box score while Bogdanovic relies mostly on shooting for his fantasy production, Young has the higher projected floor on the road. Lance Stephenson also benefits from the matchup here. He’s projected to play about half the game and has scored fantasy points in the teens or 20s in all six games.
Both Indiana point guards, Darren Collison and Cory Joseph, are mediocre value options that likely wouldn’t be considered outside of the small slate. With Ricky Rubio out, you’re essentially forced to roster one of these guys on FanDuel unless you’re willing to get really adventurous. Collison is projected for more minutes than Joseph and has the edge over him in Projected Plus/Minus, while Joseph has the edge over Collison in Pro Trends.
Utah Jazz at Houston Rockets (-11) | O/U: 206.5
Rockets (108.75)
Even against Utah’s top-rated defense, the Rockets’ implied team total is pushing 110 points. Per our NBA Trends tool, the Rockets collectively had the highest DraftKings Plus/Minus of any team against the Jazz this season and were one of only three teams to finish with a positive Plus/Minus against them. The high-powered Houston offense hammered Utah for 112 or more points in each of the first three meetings this season, though they did score just 96 in the teams’ only meeting in the 2018 calendar year.
I mentioned James Harden‘s salaries earlier, and the $1,200 premium you have to pay for him on FanDuel compared to DraftKings gives him a 1% Bargain Rating there but a 99% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, where Harden averaged 56.5 DraftKings points per game against the Jazz during the regular season. Utah threw a multitude of defenders on Harden, with Donovan Mitchell and Joe Ingles getting the most time. Harden had equal success against them from a shooting perspective, but was more aggressive against Mitchell, shooting more but also turning the ball over more.
With Harden’s Bargain Rating in the gutter on FanDuel, Chris Paul is actually the highest-rated player on that site in the Phan Model. CP3’s Bargain Rating isn’t good on FanDuel either, but you’re forced to roster two point guards there, and Paul’s ceiling and floor are nearly 15 points higher than any other option. He averaged 49.6 FanDuel points per game against the Jazz during the regular season, also leading the Rockets with a +9.7 average Plus/Minus against Utah. He did all that despite being limited from a scoring perspective when guarded by Rubio, who won’t play in Game 1 with a hamstring injury. When guarded by Rubio, Paul shot only 30.8% from the field and scored 16.8 fewer points per 100 possessions than he normally does on average.
Clint Capela has to go from being against the defensively-challenged Karl-Anthony Towns to Defensive Player of the Year frontrunner Rudy Gobert, so it would be unrealistic to expect Capela to put up the 20-plus point performances he bookended the Round 1 series against Minnesota with. Capela will be a riskier play in this series than he ever was last series, so if you’re going to target him it’s probably a better idea on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Outside of Houston’s Big 3, Eric Gordon is rated as the top value on DraftKings. Gordon averaged 31.33 DraftKings points against the Jazz this season — the highest mark outside of Harden, CP3, and Capela — and it resulted in a +6.5 Plus/Minus.
Trevor Ariza is projected to play 33.6 minutes and P.J. Tucker is projected to play 24.6, and both are low-cost punt options despite negative Projected Plus/Minuses given the small slate. The same goes for Luc Mbah a Moute assuming he returns. He’s projected for 19.5 minutes but costs under $3,000 on both sites. His return could cut into the minutes of Gerald Green and Ryan Anderson, who are nothing more than dart throws who would likely pay off only in the event of a blowout.
Jazz (97.75)
Per our NBA On/Off tool, Donovan Mitchell‘s usage rate during the regular season and playoffs climbed over five points with Rubio off the floor. Even with Rubio in action more often than not over the past month, Mitchell has been a smash play over that span:
Mitchell is the highest-ceiling Jazz player.
The second-highest ceiling player on Utah is Rudy Gobert, but it’s worth noting that he’s struggled against Houston this season, averaging only 24.8 DraftKings points per game in three games during the regular season, which resulted in an ugly -8.2 Plus/Minus.
Joe Ingles will likely have to take on more ball-handling responsibility with Rubio out, which would be a boon to his value. Ingles averaged 4.8 assists for the season, but averaged 7.3 in six games in April and 6.4 the month before with Rubio in and out of the lineup.
Derrick Favors and Joe Crowder are the two top-rated power forwards in the Phan Model on FanDuel. Both project to play over 30 minutes and could benefit from the +1.9 Pace Differential that comes with playing against Houston.
Royce O’Neale, Alec Burks, and Dante Exum will all see additional playing time in the absence of Rubio. O’Neale gets the biggest bump and has the top Projected Plus/Minus of any player under $4,000 on both sites.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA News Feed.
Pictured above: LeBron James
Photo credit: Trevor Ruszkowski – USA TODAY Sports
