The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Here’s a game-by-game breakdown of the four-game Sunday playoff slate that tips off on DraftKings with Bucks-Celtics at 1 p.m. ET and on FanDuel with Warriors-Spurs at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Boston Celtics (-4.5) at Milwaukee Bucks | O/U: 204.5
Bucks (104.5)
Giannis Antetokounmpo managed over 40 DraftKings points Friday despite playing only 27 minutes in the blowout win. He played over 40 minutes in each of the first two games, and his ceiling will rival LeBron’s if he gets his usual share of minutes Sunday. The Greek Freak is a top-three ceiling play on the slate.
Khris Middleton has been a high-floor, high-ceiling play against Boston this season:
Middleton is one of the top ceiling/floor combos in his price range.
John Henson (back) is doubtful for Game 4 after missing Game 3, in which Thon Maker exploded for 14 points, five boards, and five blocks in 24 minutes. Tyler Zeller started the game at center and was +2 in 19 minutes, but Maker was +23, and I’d expect head coach Joe Prunty to favor Maker going forward due to the superior floor spacing he provides. Maker won’t be able to sustain shooting 3-of-4 from downtown or swatting five shots as he did in Game 3, but at 0.76 DraftKings points per minute over the past year he’d need around 22 minutes on average to hit value, which is certainly a reasonable expectation after the night he had Friday. Jabari Parker also got a bump in playing time with Henson out, logging 30 minutes. Parker is averaging 0.97 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which at $5,700 would make him one of the better mid-range value plays if he pushes for 30 minutes again.
In last Friday’s NBA props piece I talked about why we should keep hammering the under on Eric Bledsoe‘s assist prop, and his lack of assists is hurting his DFS production. He’s yet to top four assists in a game this series, which has limited him to 0.84 DraftKings points per minute, well below his average of 1.19 over the last month. Bledsoe is a low-floor, high-ceiling contrarian regression play.
Malcolm Brogdon‘s minutes have fluctuated from 32 (overtime) to 19 to 29 in this series, but like Bledsoe he’s struggled to put numbers up, averaging just 0.65 DraftKings points per minute.
Celtics (100)
Al Horford is second on the Celtics in per-game points (18.7), rebounds (6.7) and assists (3.0) this series and is the highest-floor play on Boston. Horford’s been excellent over his last 10 games:
The other mainstays in the Boston rotation are Terry Rozier, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Marcus Morris, who are each averaging over 30 minutes per game in the series. In terms of DraftKings points per minute through the three games, Rozier is averaging 0.98, Tatum 0.93, Brown 0.85, and Morris 0.79, and those numbers serve as a solid foundation by which to rank their prospects heading into Game 4.
Greg Monroe is averaging 16.7 minutes per game in the series and is the highest-upside play on Boston’s bench. Shane Larkin is averaging 18.5 minutes per game in the series and is only $3,100 if you need a punt play in that range. The same goes for Aron Baynes at $3,600.
Golden State Warriors (-7) at San Antonio Spurs | O/U: 203.5
Warriors (105.25)
Kevin Durant has done just fine in this series, but it hasn’t translated into value at his five-figure salary:
If you’re stuck between Durant and Wall, the latter has provided more value this postseason. Warriors-Spurs is the biggest mismatch on the board while Wizards-Raptors is expected to be a much closer game, meaning Wall is less likely to suffer from a blowout and more likely to benefit from any potential overtime.
JaVale McGee is averaging 16.8 minutes per game this series, which is more than enough to pay off his $3,800 DraftKings salary and $4,200 FanDuel salary should he average his usual 1.2 fantasy points per minute. He’s up there with Scott as one of the top value plays on the slate.
Klay Thompson is a nice compromise between paying up at shooting guard and punting the position with the various wings on the Spurs and Cavs.
Andre Iguodala is starting at point-forward and playing 26 minutes per game in the series. He’s a much better minutes play on FanDuel ($4,700), where he’s cheaper than he is on DraftKings ($4,800). The same is true for Draymond Green ($7,600/$7,000). The Michigan State product has stuffed the box score with 10.3 points, 8.0 assists, 6.3 rebounds, 2.0 steals, and 1.7 blocks in 35.5 minutes per game this series.
David West, Kevin Looney, Shaun Livingston, and Quinn Cook are in play as tournament options on a short slate. Of the four, West is tagged with the most Pro Trends in our Models and averaging 0.14 DraftKings points per minute more than any of the other three.
Spurs (98.25)
If they want to stave off elimination, the Spurs ought to hope that LaMarcus Aldridge gives them more than the eight points and seven boards he posted with his team down 3-0 to the Warriors in the Western Conference Finals last season. He’s a tournament-only option after falling eight or more points below salary-based expectations on DraftKings in two of three games in the series thus far.
Rudy Gay is second on the team with 11.7 field goal attempts per game in the series, and he’s contributing 12.7 points, 5.7 rebounds, 2.3 steals, and 2.0 assists. He’s one of the top mid-range plays on the board.
Patty Mills is averaging 13.3 points in 30.8 minutes per game this series, but the peripheral stats haven’t been there. Still, he has been able to hit value both of the past two games and is a solid but unspectacular value. Meanwhile, Dejounte Murray hasn’t logged more than 16 minutes since Game 1.
Paul Gasol and Manu Ginoboli are both averaging right around 18 minutes per game in the series but can score fantasy points at a high rate when they’re out there and are in play in tournaments.
Davis Bertans has been on the floor for 21.4 minutes per game this series. He’s scoring fantasy points per minute in only the 0.6 range over the last month and in the 0.5 range in this series, but any positive variance in those figures would produce value at a salary of just $2,700 on DraftKings and the $3,500 minimum on FanDuel.
Toronto Raptors (-2) at Washington Wizards | O/U: 218
Raptors (110)
DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry are both averaging fantasy points per game in the mid-30s against Washington through three games, but neither is necessary to pay up for in cash games. Both have a Consistency of 30% or below on DraftKings over their last 10 games.
Serge Ibaka‘s field goal attempts have gone 8, 4, 1 in the past three games, but he’s still averaging a +4.59 Plus/Minus and 80% Consistency over his last 10.
Jonas Valanciunas played 23 minutes in each of the first three games, scoring over 40 DraftKings points once and in the mid-20s in the other two. He’s likely to be in the mid-20s again on the road, where Jo-Val’s average Plus/Minus has dropped by 2.3 points and his Consistency by 12% since 2014-15.
Delon Wright, OG Anunoby, and CJ Miles are all averaging between 21 and 24 minutes per game in the series and are punt options at their respective positions.
Wizards (108)
John Wall has played only seven games over the past 30 days, but he’s averaging a ridiculous 53.3 DraftKings points per game and 1.51 per minute during that span. And he’s been even better in this series. Through three games, Wall is averaging 58.5 DraftKings points per game and 1.64 per minute against Toronto. Per our Trends tool, he’s been an absolute smash at home dating back to the 2014-15 season:
Mike Scott is averaging 15.3 points per game on 75% shooting in the series. That percentage is unsustainable, but Scott comes cheap at $3,800 on FanDuel and $4,100 on DraftKings, so he shouldn’t need to average much more than his usual 0.8 fantasy points per minute to hit value assuming he continues to get 27.5 minutes per game. He’s one of the top value plays on the slate, and using him alongside McGee allows you to lock in LeBron James and Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Bradley Beal unsurprisingly came out more aggressive in Game 3, jacking up a series-high 19 shots en route to 28 points. Beal is more likely to hit his ceiling than Otto Porter or Markieff Morris in this spot, but all three of them tend to be unpredictable. Speaking of unpredictable: Marcin Gortat rose from the ashes again in Game 3 for 16 points on 8-of-10 shooting in 25 minutes. He offers decent upside at a price tag in the low $4,000s. Kelly Oubre and Ty Lawson are both averaging right around 24 minutes in the series and are in the tournament mix.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Indiana Pacers (-1) | O/U: 204.5
Pacers (102.25)
Victor Oladipo‘s DraftKings points-per-minute production in this series is on a downward trajectory:
- Game 1: 1.53
- Game 2: 1.31
- Game 3: 1.03
JR Smith and George Hill have been on Oladipo the most in this series, and they’ve combined to hold him to 7-of-21 shooting with seven turnovers. His Game 3 floor and downward-trending rate production aren’t ideal for cash games, but his Game 1 ceiling makes him an ideal pivot off the more expensive studs in tournaments.
Darren Collison is playing 31.3 minutes per game in this series and has a 93% Bargain Rating on DraftKings. In terms of statistical production, Collison is capable of doing a little bit of everything or a whole lot of nothing in any given game.
Speaking of doing a whole lot of nothing: What’s the line on Thaddeus Young‘s usage rate in Game 4? It’s plummeted from 17.3% in the regular season to 10.9% in the postseason. Still, Young is putting the energy he conserves on offense to good use on defense, averaging 2.0 steals and 1.0 blocks per game in the series. He’s a solid tourney play with his 99% Bargain Rating and $5,000 salary on DraftKings.
Myles Turner has put up a solid 14.0 points and 7.7 rebounds in the series but is still yet to flash the upside we saw from him earlier in the season. He does have one trend working in his favor, though: Per the Trends tool, home-favorite centers have averaged a +0.56 Plus/Minus and 48.2% Consistency compared to -0.40 and 44.7% for non-home-favorite centers since 2014-15.
Bojan Bogdanovic dropped in 30 points on 7-of-9 shooting from 3 in Game 3, which screams regression for a player who scores fantasy points per minute in the 0.7 range.
Cory Joseph and Lance Stephenson are solid punt options. Both are seeing just under 22 minutes per game, although Stephenson outscores Joseph by roughly 0.2 fantasy points per minute.
Cavaliers (101.75)
LeBron James had a streak of six straight games against Indiana with 60-plus DraftKings points broken last game. Some would say he was bound to regress eventually. The thing is that he still finished with 59.5 in that game. LeBron regressing to the mean is usually a non-issue because his mean is higher than almost everyone else’s ceiling. (I’m not exaggerating: In our DraftKings Models, only three players have projected ceilings higher than LeBron’s median projection.)
Kevin Love scored 16 points in the first half of Game 3 but has been bothered by Young overall this series. Young’s been on Love for 117 possessions, limiting him to 4-of-18 shooting while forcing six turnovers.
JR Smith has played 34 or more minutes in each of the past two games and is the best bet for value because he’s the best bet for court time. Larry Nance‘s minutes have gone from 30 to 24 to 18 in the series; Kyle Korver‘s from 31 in Game 2 to 21 in Game 3; Jordan Clarkson‘s gone from 20 to 14 to 20; Rodney Hood‘s 21, 16, 28; and Jeff Green‘s 27, 13, 17. George Hill is questionable with back spasms and would open up about 20 minutes if he sat, with Clarkson being the most likely beneficiary after Jose Calderon was a DNP-CD in Game 3.
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
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Pictured above: John Wall
Photo credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
