The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Here’s a game-by-game breakdown of the four-game Saturday playoff slate that tips off with 76ers-Heat at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Philadelphia 76ers (-3) at Miami Heat | O/U 214.5
76ers (108.5 implied points)
Whether with or without Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons has been a smash play against Miami this season, scoring more than one DraftKings point per minute in six of seven games against them this season, including all three in the playoffs thus far:
Speaking of Embiid, I used our On/Off tool to run the differential numbers with Embiid on the floor versus off:
Every player on the Sixers takes a usage hit with Embiid out there and the pace slows down, but he’s made nearly every Sixer a more efficient shooter outside of JJ Redick and Marco Belinelli. That played out in the box score Friday with the Sixers shooting a cool 50.6% from the field en route to piling up 128 points on the road.
Embiid posted 23 points, seven rebounds, and seven assists against Miami. Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra’s seemingly never-ending dilemma of how long to stick with a traditional center in Hassan Whiteside is magnified by Embiid’s +3.16 Opponent Rating, which is the highest of any Sixer starter. Embiid isn’t a priority cash play on a slate crowded with centers, though. He averages 1.5 DraftKings points per minute on the season, which is monstrous, but you’d like to see him play more than the 30:21 he played in Game 3 for that efficiency to truly pay off at a salary in the $9,000s.
As I alluded to before, Redick and Belinelli take the biggest hit with Embiid out there because he takes shots from them without improving their efficiency. Neither one stands out as a top value, but either player can be useful as a low-$5,000s player who ties a DFS lineup together.
Dario Saric will have to ensure he plays at maximum efficiency levels to fully pay off with Embiid on the floor, though it’s not out of the question. Saric has averaged 1.04 fantasy points per minute this season and 0.93 over the past month on FanDuel, where he’s a better bargain than on DraftKings. If Saric can score over a FanDuel point per minute he can still exceed his salary-based expectation of just under 30 FanDuel points. Saric’s game reminds me of Nikola Mirotic a bit, and if you look at his game logs against Miami you can see how he has the potential to be Mirotic arbitrage:
Pricing matters: Robert Covington has posted a Plus/Minus of -3 or worse on FanDuel in all three playoff games against Miami, but he’s hit value on DraftKings in two of those three. At $5,500, Covington comes with a Bargain Rating of 98% on DraftKings.
Heat (105 implied points)
The last time Miami was on the slate, I noted how Kelly Olynyk was probably the right play even though it would be uncomfortable with Whiteside still starting and with Embiid returning. The discomfort ended up being unwarranted. Olynyk played 35:35 in Game 3 — his most playing time yet through three games — and hit value for the third straight game. Olynyk has averaged more than a fantasy point per minute this season and still projects as one of the better values at his position with a salary of $6,300 on FanDuel and $5,800 on DraftKings. The same goes for starting power forward James Johnson, who costs $5,700 on both sites.
Dwyane Wade is a boom-or-bust option at shooting guard. When he’s in vintage form, he’ll give you a performance like Game 2, when he shot 11-of-16 and put up 28 points in 26 minutes. When he’s not, he’ll give you something more like Game 3’s eight points in 10 minutes on 2-of-10 shooting. Wade’s usage rate has been 29% or higher in each of the past two games, and he’ll always retain upside at his price point with that kind of usage.
Justise Winslow flashed with a 28% usage rate in Game 3, scoring 19 points to go along with 10 rebounds. Like Wade, Winslow is a boom-or-bust option, but he’ll normally rely more on defensive stats than high usage. Josh Richardson has failed to top 28 minutes in two of the three games in the series and averaged the fewest fantasy points per minute of any Miami starter during the regular season.
Goran Dragic has the highest projected ceiling in our Models among Miami players. He’s a nice tournament play as arbitrage on some of the more popular mid-tier point guards.
Portland Trail Blazers at New Orleans Pelicans (-6.5) | O/U 216
Pelicans (111.25 implied points)
Two Bulls castoffs lead the way in value for the series-leading Pelicans. On DraftKings, Nikola Mirotic has a 99% Bargain Rating at a price of only $7,500. Mirotic’s production over his past 10 games has been borderline unbelievable:
You don’t see +14.89 average Plus/Minuses over a 10-game span very often.
Rajon Rondo is a steal on FanDuel at only $7,100. Rondo is playing 35.5 minutes per night in the series and averaging a double-double at 12.7 points and 12.3 assists, while also adding an impressive 7.0 rebounds.
Anthony Davis has a 99% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, but he’s tough to fit in cash games on a crowded slate. That said, his home/road splits over the past two seasons are always worth noting:
The Pelicans are at home Saturday.
The fact that we’re three players in and I haven’t mentioned Jrue Holiday yet speaks to just how reliable New Orleans’ big four has been during these playoffs. In addition to bothering Damian Lillard on the defensive end, Holiday is averaging 23.3 points and 6.0 assists in the series and is yet to post fewer than 36 DraftKings points.
Trail Blazers (104.75 implied points)
Al-Farouq Aminu is $5,500 on both FanDuel and DraftKings and is the top dollar-for-dollar value on the Blazers. Aminu won’t always assert himself with a 24.3% usage rate and 15 field goal attempts like he did last game, but he offers double-double upside and is capable of filling up the defensive box score as well.
I just said Holiday was bothering Damian Lillard, and it’s led to nothing but downward-facing red arrows on DraftKings:
Lillard is shooting 4-of-24 in this series when Holiday is on him. Lillard is a top point guard in price only on this slate.
Jusuf Nurkic played only 20 minutes last game and is not a good fit for playing against the Pelicans. He’s all the way down to $5,000 on DraftKings, though, which gives him upside even in limited minutes, given his seasonal average of 1.28 DraftKings points per minute. Ed Davis has played 19.1 minutes per game in the series and Zach Collins 18.5; they’re both in play as punts with Davis getting the edge due to playing more minutes in the most recent game.
Despite Lillard’s struggles, C.J. McCollum has been just so-so as a DFS play, hitting value on DraftKings in only one of the series’ three games.
Keep an eye on the status of both Moe Harkless (knee) and Evan Turner (toe). If both can’t go Shabazz Napier and Pat Connaughton would be punt options. Napier would be the superior play as he averages more per-minute fantasy production of the two. If only one of Harkless and Turners sits, the other could be in line for big minutes and would also be in play.
Houston Rockets (-5.5) at Minnesota Timberwolves | O/U 214.5
Rockets (110.25 implied points)
Our Models have Clint Capela as the top value play on the Rockets after he averaged 16.0 points and 14.0 rebounds in the first two games of the series. Capela has a 93% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, but it’s also worth noting he has the highest projected ceiling on FanDuel despite two other players at the position costing at least $1,700 more.
James Harden is best used on DraftKings where he’s only $10,700 and has a 99% Bargain Rating. The chances of Houston blowing out Minnesota are lessened on the road, but Harden will hurt you if he only plays 31 minutes like last game, one in which he ended up with a -15.57 Plus/Minus.
Gerald Green is averaging 12.5 points and 9.5 rebounds in 23 minutes per game through two games — nice production for a player who costs only $4,000 on FanDuel. I’d target him there as a punt play but fade him on DraftKings at $4,700.
Like Green, the other Rockets’ wings are boom-or-bust plays. Trevor Ariza is the best of the bunch given that he’s averaging 33.8 minutes per game in the series to Eric Gordon‘s 29.3 and PJ Tucker‘s 26.8, though Gordon has the most upside because he’s capable of scoring a lot of points quickly if he gets hot from downtown.
Chris Paul has a 97% Bargain Rating on FanDuel and is a nice tournament play if you’re fading Harden, as the two have one of the stronger negative correlations on the slate.
Timberwolves (104.5 implied points)
Here are the Timberwolves’ stats through two games in the series, sorted by points per game. Keep scrolling. You’ll eventually find Karl-Anthony Towns:
By not showing up for two games,Towns has caused DraftKings to drop him all the way down to $8,300. With it being Minnesota’s first home game, Towns’ positive regression likely starts now. He’s been a much better DFS play at home so far in his career:
Jimmy Butler also has also been priced down and has a 99% Bargain Rating on DraftKings. He too has been better at home in his Timberwolves career:
Andrew Wiggins and Jeff Teague are both mid-priced options who have upside if Minnesota plays better at home, but neither stands out as a top value play. Jamal Crawford and Derrick Rose are projected as better values and average 27.6 and 20.7 minutes per game in the series, respectively, but both could see their playing time drop if Minnesota is able to be more competitive at home.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Utah Jazz (-4.5) | O/U 206.5
Jazz (105.5 implied points)
Ricky Rubio continues to be a go-to mid-range DFS play at the point guard position at $6,800 on DraftKings and $7,400 on FanDuel. Rubio averages 17.5 points, 7.0 assists, and 7.0 rebounds per game in the series and has triple-double upside every time he takes the court.
Derrick Favors finally came through with an upside performance in Game 2 (20 points and 16 rebounds in 37 minutes). Given that upside, he’s underpriced at $5,300 on DraftKings and $5,400 on FanDuel. He’s posted 70% Consistency on both sites over his past 10 games.
Rudy Gobert has a Bargain Rating of 99% on DraftKings at a price of only $6,700; he’s $8,100 on FanDuel. Gobert is averaging 13.5 points, 11.0 rebounds, and 2.5 blocks in the series and has enough upside to finish as the slate’s highest-scoring center.
Donovan Mitchell is averaging 27.5 points and 8.0 rebounds per game in the series. He has 50-fantasy-point upside and is projected to be lesser owned than Harden or Holiday.
Forwards Joe Ingles and Jae Crowder are also options in the Jazz rotation. Crowder will play minutes in the 20s and has the potential to score 25-30 fantasy points at a salary in the low $4,000s, which is good value. Ingles is tougher to get behind because he’s ceding facilitator duties to Rubio and hasn’t topped two assists in any of his past three games.
Thunder (101 implied points)
Russell Westbrook is another price-sensitive play. He’s only $10,900 on DraftKings but $12,000 on FanDuel, giving him a 98% Bargain Rating on the former. Despite Utah’s high-caliber defense, Westbrook has been fine against them in DFS, save for a hiccup back in October:
Paul George is up at 40.4 minutes per game for the series and is averaging 27.0 points and 8.5 rebounds. George is a top value at small forward on both sites. George’s frontcourt partner Carmelo Anthony is playing upwards of 37 minutes per game as well, which gives him major upside at a salary of $5,600 on FanDuel and $5,900 on DraftKings.
Jerami Grant and Corey Brewer are the punt options on the Thunder. Grant came on to play 30 minutes last game, finishing with 13 points and six rebounds. Brewer is averaging 31.2 minutes per game in the series but he averages roughly 0.7 fantasy points per minute and will thus need some good luck in the defensive categories or some open shots to pay off.
Steven Adams is always in play in tournaments because he can swallow up rebounds and block shots while playing 30 minutes a night, but the upside hasn’t been there for him against Utah so far this season:
Pictured above: Karl-Anthony Towns
Photo credit: Troy Taormina – USA TODAY Sports
