The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Here’s a game-by-game breakdown of the all-Eastern Conference three-game Friday playoff slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Indiana Pacers (-1) | O/U 208.5
Pacers (104.75 implied points)
Darren Collison has played 32 minutes a game in the series so far and is the top value play on the Indiana side. Our Models have a high/low FanDuel pairing of Collison and John Wall projected for over 14 ceiling points more than a mid-range pairing of Kyle Lowry and Terry Rozier, which suggests that the former is worth the extra $500, especially in tournaments.
On a similar note, I wouldn’t necessarily recommend playing Victor Oladipo over Wall when the latter is just $400 more on FanDuel and $500 more on DraftKings, but I have no problem with playing them both in the same lineup. Oladipo dominated the offense with a 42.4% usage rate in Game 2 and would have had another monster game if he didn’t get into quick foul trouble in the opening frame. He’s averaging 1.43 DraftKings points per minute in the series, which would be lethal if he plays another 36-plus minutes like he did in Game 1.
Myles Turner has come alive with 17.0 points and 6.5 rebounds per game through the first two. He has only one combined steal and block in the series after posting a combined 2.4 per game during the regular season, so he has the potential for a monster game if he can add those to his scoring and rebounding output.
Bojan Bogdanovic leads the Pacers this series with 35.2 minutes per game but averages just 0.71 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He and Thaddeus Young usually get 30-plus minutes, but that’s not guaranteed to translate into fantasy production with Oladipo posting astronomical usage rates and Turner becoming more involved in the offense.
Cory Joseph and Lance Stephenson are the top punt plays on Indiana. Joseph has averaged 23.1 minutes per game in the series and Stephenson has been at 20.7. Stephenson averages 0.9 FanDuel points per minute to Joseph’s 0.71 and is is a better play on FanDuel where they’re both $3,800 versus DraftKings where Stephenson is $4,400 and Joseph is $3,500. Domantas Sabonis played minutes in the high-teens in both games and is also in the punt-play mix since he’s $4,200 and averages over a fantasy point per minute on both sites.
Cavaliers (103.75)
As usual, LeBron James is the highest-ceiling play on the slate. Six games played this season for LeBron against Indiana, six games with 60-plus DraftKings points:
Kevin Love has been limited to 2-of-11 shooting by Young and 8-of-24 overall. He did pull down 17 rebounds in Game 1 and is capable of 50-plus fantasy points if his shot starts falling, but he’s playing through a torn ligament in his thumb. There’s more value in paying up at other positions on Friday’s slate.
Forecasting the rest of Cleveland’s rotation is a crapshoot. Tyronn Lue has a lot of relatively new pieces to work with, and his rotations are nowhere near set in stone yet. J.R. Smith played 35 minutes in Game 2 and Kyle Korver played 30:54. The Cavs are getting pummeled in the paint this series, so it’s possible they opt for more size instead of a small-ball lineup with Smith and Korver on the floor for 30-plus minutes each. George Hill will likely play more than 20 minutes this time after picking up five fouls in Game 2 and has an outside shot at 30-plus. Larry Nance is averaging 26.9 minutes per game in the series, but his salary has come up in response. Rodney Hood, Jeff Green, and Jordan Clarkson will split the remaining minutes, but all three have averaged 0.75 DraftKings points per minute or fewer over the past month.
Toronto Raptors at Washington Wizards (-1.5) | O/U 218
Wizards (109.75)
John Wall has said his favorite restaurant is Joe’s Seafood, Prime Steak, & Stone Crab out in DC, and going back to the start of the 2014-15 season, Wall sure has been a better DFS play when he’s in close proximity to his local grub of choice:
Wall is averaging 26.0 points, 12.0 assists, 3.5 rebounds, 2.0 steals, and 1.5 blocks in 35.5 minutes per game in the series. He’s the third-best stud on the slate only because of a robot and a unicorn.
Bradley Beal must also enjoy DC cooking:
Beal averaged 26.6 points, 4.5 assists, and 4.4 rebounds per game during the regular season but has slumped to a 14.0-3.5-2.0 line in the Wizards’ two playoff losses. Like LeBron did in Game 2 of his series, Beal has the “needs to be more aggressive” narrative working in his favor for this one. TSN Sports’ Josh Lewenberg reported that head coach Scott Brooks “challenged” Beal to be more aggressive after he scored only nine points on 3-of-11 from the field in Game 2. Beal is $7,800 on FanDuel but only $6,700 on DraftKings, giving him a 97% Bargain Rating on the latter. With all of the options available, Beal may be one of the lesser-owned shooting guards on the slate.
Scott Brooks may swap in Mike Scott for Marcin Gortat in his starting lineup. Scott has played just 14 minutes alongside Wall, Beal, Otto Porter, and Markieff Morris this season, but it’s worth noting that Scott was last in usage rate and third in rebounding rate:
That said, Scott averages roughly 0.8 fantasy points per minute this season and has played 27.1 minutes per game in the series. If Scott gets another 27 minutes and turns in a season-average performance, he’d be on track to blow past the expectations of his $3,500 FanDuel and $3,800 DraftKings salaries. At $4,000, Gortat is barely more expensive than Scott on FanDuel. He would be a good value if he remains a starter and an interesting contrarian option if he gets benched.
Markieff Morris went for 22 points, 11 rebounds, and six assists in 27:57 in Game 1 but just six points, four rebounds, and one assist in 27:34 in Game 2 — and he’s been just as up and down throughout the season:
I’d tend to bet against another eruption from Morris because he draws an above-average defender in Serge Ibaka most of the time. Ibaka has limited Morris to six points on 78 possessions in the series.
Otto Porter‘s usage is down from 18.4% in the regular season to 14.0% so far in the playoffs, and that was the case in the last two seasons in which Washington made the playoffs as well. Porter is a better floor play than Morris, but Morris has a higher ceiling.
Raptors (108.25)
DeMar DeRozan has scored at least 22 real points in five of six games against the Wizards this season and has scored FanDuel points at a clip of 1.16 per minute against them. If he scored at that rate for his series average of 36 minutes per game, he’d be at 41.8 FanDuel points, which is over six points above his salary-based expectation.
Delon Wright played 24:49 in Game 1 and 26:59 in Game 2, including the entire fourth quarter. Wright is averaging 14.5 points, 3.5 assists, 3.0 steals, and 1.5 blocks per game in the series, so it’s tough to see Fred VanVleet taking minutes from him right now. VanVleet played under three minutes in his Game 2 return from a shoulder injury.
Serge Ibaka has come up huge for Toronto with 16.5 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 2.5 blocks per game so far in the series, good for 38.4 DraftKings points a game. Betting on Ibaka to regress hasn’t worked out at all lately:
Ibaka is a high-floor, high-ceiling play at the four. He and DeRozan have a weak positive correlation, which is the only significant positive correlation either player has with any of their teammates.
Rostering Kyle Lowry in cash games isn’t a priority with a stud like Wall and a value like Collison on the slate. Lowry is averaging 36.25 DraftKings points through two games, which would be almost exactly what his $7,500 salary implies.
Jonas Valanciunas went off for 19 points and 14 rebounds in only 23:07 in Game 2; that’s the kind of ceiling you can expect from him. Like most centers, though, Valanciunas tends to be overvalued on the road: His FanDuel Consistency is 10% lower on the road than at home both this season and since the start of the 2014-15 season.
The young OG Anunoby and veteran C.J. Miles are both logging right around 20 minutes per game in the series. Miles has outscored Anunoby against Washington 0.90 DraftKings points per minute to 0.75 and is quietly averaging 15 (real) points per game in the series.
Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks (-5.5) | O/U 203.5
Bucks (104.5)
Giannis Antetokounmpo has hammered the Celtics this season:
Giannis has a 97% Bargain Rating on DraftKings at $10,600 and leads all players on the slate in Pro Trends. Only LeBron is a better play Friday.
John Henson is doubtful with back soreness. That leaves Tyler Zeller as a top value at center at $2,800 on DraftKings and $3,500 on FanDuel, and we could see some Thon Maker as well. Per our On/Off tool, Milwaukee’s main rotation players all see an increase in usage rate with Henson off the floor:
Khris Middleton has scored a fantasy point per minute versus Boston in six combined meetings this season and will push for 40 minutes tonight. Middleton has been one of the more consistent players in DFS this season:
Middleton has a 97% Bargain Rating on DraftKings and a projected ceiling above 50.
The only Bucks five-man lineup without Henson that has played more than three minutes in this series is a small-ball lineup featuring Malcolm Brogdon alongside the usual starters. Brogdon’s minutes went from 32:26 in Game 1 to 18:35 in Game 2, but they could shoot back up in Game 3. He’s a great value at $4,500 on FanDuel and a solid value at $4,800 on DraftKings. Jabari Parker could also see an uptick in minutes with Henson out. Parker averages close to a fantasy point per minute and would have no problem exceeding his salary-based expectations if his minutes were to climb back into the mid-20s after logging just 12.3 per game in Games 1-2.
Despite shooting 50% from the field, Eric Bledsoe has averaged just 24.3 DraftKings points per game against Boston across three meetings in April. Terry Rozier has held him to 6-of-18 shooting. Bledsoe is down at $6,300 and has a 99% Bargain Rating on DraftKings but up at $7,800 on FanDuel, so if you’re going to take a risk with Bledsoe in this spot, DraftKings is the place to do it.
The Bucks will also play Tony Snell, who doesn’t care about your DFS lineups. Snell averages under 0.5 DraftKings points per minute this season and has a Consistency of 29% over the past month.
Celtics (99)
Jayson Tatum has averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is also the rate he’s scored at against Milwaukee across three games in April. Tatum is averaging right around 35 minutes per game in this series after adjusting for overtime in Game 1, and playing that much and scoring at that rate would put him on track to exceed the 30.0 DraftKings points that his $6,400 salary implies.
Al Horford has averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute in those three games and has played no fewer than 35 minutes in the series. Like Tatum, Horford can exceed salary-based expectations simply by continuing the pace he’s already on against the Bucks. Horford is safe for cash games and has 50-point upside for tournaments as well.
Jaylen Brown was the most consistent Celtic in those three April games against Milwaukee, though:
Terry Rozier is averaging 23.0 points and 5.5 assists per game in the series while playing minutes in the high-30s. So essentially, Boston’s four-man unit of Rozier-Tatum-Brown-Horford can be expected to play minutes in the mid-to-high 30s and score around one fantasy point per minute. Tatum would benefit if Milwaukee went to a small-ball lineup that forces Brogdon on him instead of Snell, who has held Tatum below his seasonal average in points per possession. For lineup construction purposes, note that Rozier and Brown have the strongest positive correlation, Horford and Brown have the strongest negative correlation, and Tatum isn’t strongly correlated with any of them.
Marcus Morris is the fifth Celtic getting at least 30 minutes per game this series. He hasn’t gone full beastmode in the box score, but he still managed an average FanDuel Plus/Minus of +3.0 or more in each game on 19.0 points and 6.0 rebounds per outing.
Aron Baynes and Greg Monroe are contrarian options for tournaments. Both have averaged minutes in the teens this series and will benefit from the absence of Henson, who held them to a combined 5-of-14 shooting with three blocked shots. Monroe averages 1.29 DraftKings points per minute this month and Baynes is at a respectable 0.92.
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Pictured above: LeBron James
Photo credit:David Richard – USA TODAY Sports
