The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a three-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET. I’ll do a game-by-game breakdown since it’s a small slate.
Philadelphia 76ers (-2.5) at Miami Heat | O/U: 214.5
Philadelphia 76ers (108.5 implied points)
Update: Oh boy: Joel Embiid (eye) has been upgraded to probable. That’s great for us as basketball fans but not for most of the 76ers rotation players in DFS, whose production has suffered in games where Embiid and Ben Simmons have taken the floor together (per the On/Off tool):
Dario Saric, Robert Covington, JJ Redick, and Marco Bellinelli as take at least at 2.5% hit in usage rate, and Ersan Ilyasova‘s declines by 1.3%. If Embiid is back, Ilyasova isn’t likely to play as much after averaging 29.7 minutes over the first two games. Ilyasova’s $5,800 salary on DraftKings is more appealing than his $6,600 salary on FanDuel, but he’d be overvalued across the industry if Embiid indeed ends up playing.
FanDuel doesn’t award bonuses for double-doubles or triple-doubles, which may be why Ben Simmons comes with a Bargain Rating of 75% there; his $10,200 salary is the same on both sites. Simmons has put up more than 40 FanDuel points in five of his six meetings with Miami this season:
I mentioned Dario Saric takes a hit if Embiid comes back, but it’s worth noting Saric has been as consistent as they come versus Miami this season:
Saric is undervalued at FanDuel at $6,400 relative to DraftKings at $6,600, and would be smash play if Embiid doesn’t return.
Marco Belinelli has a Bargain Rating of 93% on DraftKings at only $5,000, and J.J. Redick is a good value at $5,200 as well. Redick is projected for 32.8 minutes to Belinelli’s 29.3, but the latter has a 0.93 to 0.88 edge in DraftKings points per minute over the past month. The production of each of them has taken a slight hit this season with in games with Embiid, as the 76ers play at a slower pace with him in.
Robert Covington has been a shaky play against Miami this season:
Covington has upside at his price point if he makes plays on defense or hits the glass, but his usage and rebounding both take a hit in games with Embiid.
Miami Heat (106)
Dwyane Wade is only $4,900 and has a 95% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, and his $5,400 price tag on DraftKings isn’t bad either. Wade has played Philly four times since the All-Star break and topped 39 FanDuel points in two of the four:
James Johnson is $5,400 and has a 90% Bargain Rating on FanDuel. Johnson averages a FanDuel point per minute against Philadelphia this season and is a great value on DraftKings as well at $5,700.
Josh Richardson is $5,500 on DraftKings and $5,800 on FanDuel. He has a lackluster 36.2% shooting percentage against Philly this season but averages just under 0.9 fantasy points per minute and thus has upside at this price point.
Kelly Olynyk has played 30-plus minutes in both games in this series, averaging 18.5 points, 6.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 1.0 block, and 1.0 steal. Hassan Whiteside‘s presence makes Olynyk somewhat of an uncomfortable play now that his salary is in the $6,000s, but the writing has been on the wall with Whiteside for a while now. Whiteside hasn’t topped 16 minutes yet in this series. His salary is in the mid-$5,000s now, though, so he’s in play as a contrarian option since he averages fantasy points per minute in the 1.30s. Bam Adebayo averages just under 0.9 fantasy points per minute this season and is a dart-throw option at/near minimum price on FanDuel and DraftKings.
Update: If Embiid plays, Whiteside should expect to see increased minutes for defensive purposes. Whiteside and Olynyk have shared the floor for only 4.3 minutes this series (though interestingly enough, Miami is a +11 when both have been on the floor together, which is the third-highest net rating of the 56 two-man combos Miami has used in this series).
Goran Dragic is $6,300 on both sites, but, like Richardson, Dragic has struggled to get buckets against the Sixers, shooting 39.3% against them in six meetings this season.
Portland Trail Blazers at New Orleans Pelicans (-3.5) | O/U: 214.5
New Orleans Pelicans (109)
Anthony Davis is back in New Orleans, and no matter what size sample you’re into, there’s no getting around his stark home/road splits, whether since the start of the 2014-15 season …
… or just this season:
Those splits played out as you would expect against Portland this year, with Davis failing to hit value in two of the three road games he played against them but hitting value in both home games:
As is par for the course these NBA Playoffs, DraftKings makes it easier to afford Davis at $10,900 and only $600 more than Kevin Durant versus FanDuel at $12,700 and $1,700 more than KD.
Life comes at you fast: Nikola Mirotic went from the misfortune of getting punched in the face by teammate Bobby Portis in Chicago to punching opponents in the face with the 3-ball in the NBA Playoffs. If we call Mirotic’s official heat-up date April 4, he’s shot an unconscious 45% over his past 60 attempts from downtown:
The one concern with Mirotic is that Al-Farouq Aminu has done a good job limiting his ability to get off shots this series, holding him to 53.6% fewer attempts than his seasonal average. That said, Mirotic has been playing 39 minutes a night and can get you double-digit rebounds and multiple blocks to supplement his scoring. At $7,000 on DraftKings, Mirotic is by far the highest-rated player at his salary range in our NBA Models.
Jrue Holiday is averaging a +2.78 Plus/Minus and 68% Consistency on DraftKings over the past month, and he’s put up great numbers all season despite the fact that priority No. 1 for him is to shut down Damian Lillard.
Holiday’s backcourt partner, Rajon Rondo, has a 93% Bargain Rating on FanDuel and is the only point guard with a significantly positive Projected Plus/Minus on that site. Rondo is averaging a near triple-double this series at 11.0 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 13.0 assists.
E’Twaun Moore is a low-upside option who will see around 30 minutes and has been a 50/50 proposition in terms of hitting value against Portland this season.
Portland Trail Blazers (105.5)
Where’s Big Game Dame? After averaging 26.9 points per game during the regular season, Damian Lillard has failed to top 18 points in either playoff game. Why? The tenacious defense of Holiday, who’s limited Lillard to 2-of-18 shooting while guarding him. We know Lillard has upside and Portland is desperate, but Lillard’s salary is sandwiched between better projected values both above and below him and is not a priority play.
Al-Farouq Aminu is averaging a double-double in this series with 10.5 points and 11.0 rebounds. He’s played 29-35 minutes per night and averages right around 0.9 fantasy points per minute on both DraftKings and FanDuel over the past month and against the Pelicans this season, which would put him on track to hit value at $5,300 on DraftKings and $5,500 on FanDuel.
Zach Collins has played just under 22 minutes in each of the first two games, and given he costs just $3,500 on FanDuel and $3,600 on DraftKings, he’s the smarter play than Jusuf Nurkic. Coaches don’t always do what the numbers suggest they will, but I would think head coach Terry Stotts is very aware that his top-six lineups in this series all had Collins on the floor and Nurkic off, and the only other one with a positive net rating had another floor-spacer in Meyers Leonard out there instead of Nurkic:
via basketball-reference.com
Moe Harkless returned from injury to contribute 11 points, five rebounds, and a block in 27:07 in Game 2. If Evan Turner (toe) is out or limited, Harkless could push for even more minutes. He scores only around 0.7 fantasy points per minute, though, and thus is a better play on FanDuel at $3,600 than DraftKings at $4,200.
C.J. McCollum upped his usage rate from 21.5% in Game 1 to 26.1% in Game 2, and he’ll have to continue to be aggressive as long as Lillard is limited by Holiday, which gives him nice tournament upside.
Golden State Warriors (-3.5) at San Antonio Spurs | O/U: 206
Golden State Warriors (104.75)
Kevin Durant is averaging 28.0 points, 7.0 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 1.0 steal, and 0.5 blocks so far in the series. Brow has a higher ceiling, but Durant is a great high-priced play given that he’s $1,700 cheaper on FanDuel and $600 cheaper on DraftKings.
JaVale McGee is questionable for Thursday with a quad contusion. If he’s good to go, he’d be underpriced at $3,600 on FanDuel and $3,800 on DraftKings. McGee played 16:23 in Game 1 and 18:31 in Game 2, and he’s averaged 1.54 DraftKings points per minute across 78 minutes against the Spurs this season, which would put him on track for points in the mid-20s.
Andre Iguodala offers value at $4,600 on FanDuel and $4,800 on DraftKings. Iguodala has played minutes in the mid-to-high 20s this series and has averaged 0.95 fantasy points per minute on both sites across 126 minutes against the Spurs this season.
Klay Thompson has been a high-floor option against San Antonio this season:
Draymond Green has been in the 33-35 minute range in the first two games, but the Spurs have held him to just 7-of-22 shooting. He’s topped 44 fantasy points on both sites in three separate meetings against San Antonio already this season and is a nice tournament play if you dare to try to arbitrage Brow. Note that Thompson and Green have been negatively correlated this season.
San Antonio Spurs (101.25)
The Spurs will be tough to predict with coach Gregg Popovich missing this game due to the tragic passing of this wife. It doesn’t feel right digging too deep into that aspect of handicapping the game in this space, so I’ll just stick to what we’ve already seen in this series and what it could mean going forward.
Rudy Gay is the top value on the Spurs at $5,100 on Draftkings and $5,900 on FanDuel. He was up over 36 minutes last game after playing 21:57 in Game 1 and would be a good value even if you split the difference given that he’s averaging over a fantasy point per minute against Golden State this season.
LaMarcus Aldridge has been the most bankable Spur against Golden State this season, hitting value in four of six meetings and topping 50 fantasy points three times.
Patty Mills is a sub-$5,000 source of 30-plus minutes on both sites. He has a 70% Consistency Rating on DraftKings over his past 10, though he’ll likely regress from last game’s 21 points.
Danny Green, Manu Ginobili, Pau Gasol, Dejounte Murray, Davis Bertans, Tony Parker, Bryn Forbes, and Kyle Anderson round out the Spurs rotation. If that seems like a lot, it is — none are projected for even 25 minutes, so all are nothing more than tournament dart throws. Gasol averages the most fantasy points per minute of the bunch.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading NBA News Feed.
Pictured above: Anthony Davis (23) and Damian Lillard (0)
Photo credit: Troy Wayrynen — USA Sports
