The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a three-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET. I’ll do a game-by-game breakdown since it’s a small slate.
Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers (-7.5) | O/U: 212.5
Cavaliers (110)
DraftKings has generally priced down studs a bit for the playoffs relative to FanDuel — hence the top-priced players having better Bargain Ratings on DraftKings — but for those playing on both sites and aiming for exposure to all the top studs, it’s worth noting that LeBron James is the highest-projected player in our Models but isn’t the most expensive player on FanDuel. LeBron dropped a 24-10-12 line across 43:56 in Game 1, and if that’s his performance in a loss you might want to consider him, especially if you think Cleveland will rebound to level the series at one game apiece: In wins this season, LeBron averaged 3.9 points, 1.6 rebounds, and 2.3 assists more per game than in losses. After LeBron bypassed shooting until 1:52 was left in the first quarter in Game 1, coach Tyronn Lue urged him to come out more aggressive in Game 2, which is always a recipe for success in DFS. While he let his fans down by failing to pull out a win in Game 1, LeBron is yet to disappoint against Indiana this year from a DFS perspective (per our Trends tool):
Kevin Love was also not aggressive looking for his shot, attempting only eight field goals in Game 1. Love tends to rebound well against Indiana, and he pulled down 17 last game, but his lack of shots was a continuation of the regular season when Thaddeus Young held him to 22.7% fewer attempts per possession than his seasonal average.
Differentiating between the rest of the Cavs rotation is somewhat of a crapshoot; six players played between 18 and 30 minutes for Cleveland on Sunday. Cleveland’s best lineup featured Jordan Clarkson, JR Smith, and Larry Nance alongside LeBron and Love and had a +11 net rating. Nance (29:38) and Smith (28:56) got the most minutes after LeBron and Love, and they look like the best bets for value in Game 2. Smith has been Cleveland’s primary defender on Victor Oladipo, while Nance finished fourth among power forwards in ESPN’s Defensive Real Plus-Minus and helps to offset the defensive liability that is Love. Nance also had his way with Myles Turner, scoring eight points in 26 possessions on 4-of-5 shooting while Jeff Green couldn’t manage a single point against Turner on 23 possessions. Clarkson figures to get more minutes than the 20:56 he got in Game 1 — not because he was the only Cav to play 20-plus minutes and not finish with a +/- of -6 or worse but because starting point guard George Hill is dealing with a back injury.
Rodney Hood is capable of getting hot from 3, but he comes with more risk than the others because his price is on the high end of the Cleveland role-player spectrum, and he’s a poor defender with a sore Achilles.
Pacers (102.5)
At a salary of just $5,000 on FanDuel and $5,100 on DraftKings, Bojan Bogdanovic is the top value on the Pacers and one of the top values on the slate. Bogdanovic played 38:46 in Game 1 and will likely continue to play heavy minutes because he spends the most time guarding LeBron. Bogdanovic scored over 30 fantasy points in Game 1 and has room to improve if he gets more than 5-of-17 shots to fall this time around.
Victor Oladipo is the highest-ceiling Pacer, and he put up 56.5 DraftKings points in 36:52 in Game 1. On the one hand, going the fade route with him makes sense because he’s unlikely to shoot 6-of-9 from 3 or amass five steals plus blocks again in Game 2. On the other hand, the Pacers are still road underdogs as Cleveland is expected to tie the series up, and Oladipo has flourished when his team is a road underdog this season (DraftKings):
Darren Collison hit value despite shooting just 2-of-9 in Game 1. He’s usually not going to put up 40-plus-point fantasy games, but is a serviceable cash play at a salary in the $5,000s on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Myles Turner has scored 31 or more DraftKings points both times he’s played Cleveland this season (albeit against two very different squads). Unlike Oladipo, though, Turner’s Game 1 performance as a road underdog was more of an outlier; he has averaged a negative Plus/Minus in 21 such situations this season.
Thaddeus Young‘s usage rates over the last two games: 4.8% and 7.4%. He’ll be one of the lower-owned power forwards in tournaments after that, and he should be hands-off in cash games despite his 32 minutes of projected playing time.
Lance Stephenson and Domantas Sabonis both score in the 0.9-1.0 fantasy-point-per-minute range and are expected to see minutes in the high teens or low 20s. It’s possible that one or both could hit value if they see a spike in playing time, perhaps due to a blowout. Cory Joseph sees the same amount of playing time, but is in the 0.7 fantasy-point-per-minute range.
Utah Jazz at Oklahoma City Thunder (-5) | O/U: 207.5
Thunder (106)
Russell Westbrook under $11,000 on DraftKings feels like Christmas, which is fitting because his salary hasn’t been this low since . . . Christmas. Aside from an early-season hiccup way back in October, Russ has been his usual productive self against Utah’s excellent defense:
There’s enough value to go away from Russ in cash games, but at $10,800 on DraftKings he’s priced $400 cheaper than James Harden and $700 cheaper than LeBron, making him an excellent tournament play.
Paul George is questionable with a bruised right hip, and with LeBron as the day’s top stud and value available at the other end of the salary spectrum, George’s main value on this slate is as a pivot off LeBron or Jimmy Butler in tournaments. If George is out, note that in three full games without him all other members of Oklahoma City’s top four have seen a usage bump (per our NBA On/Off tool):
If George sits, Jerami Grant would likely see an uptick and minutes and become a great value, Grant costs $3,700 on DraftKings and $4,100 on FanDuel and has averaged more than 1.0 fantasy points per minute over the past month on both sites.
Carmelo Anthony has a 100% Consistency Rating on DraftKings against the Jazz this season. He won’t always stuff the stat sheet with three steals and two blocks as he did in Game 1, but he’s looking at minutes in the high 30s and has a lot of upside at $5,400 (and $5,600 on FanDuel), especially if PG13 sits.
Corey Brewer played 33:38 in Game 1 and is one of the best sources of cheap minutes and value at small forward. He costs just $4,200 on DraftKings and $4,500 on FanDuel.
Steven Adams has a 93% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, but he hasn’t flashed much upside against Utah this season:
That said, the best time to play a center has historically been when his team is a home favorite (per the Trends tool):
Jazz (101.5)
Thanks to doable salaries of $6,300 on DraftKings and $7,200 on FanDuel, Ricky Rubio is the slate’s top value at point guard. Jeff Teague is in the same price range, but Rubio has averaged 1.25 DraftKings points per minute this season to Teague’s 1.04, and Rubio got more minutes (31:00) than Teague (28:31) in their respective Game 1s. Rubio’s salary should be up in the $7,000s on DraftKings, but it hasn’t fully corrected since he missed time with a hamstring injury at the end of the regular season.
Donovan Mitchell made his playoff debut with 27 points, 10 boards, three assists, and two steals on Sunday but came away with a bruised foot. If he’s good to go, he’ll be one of the top plays on the slate if you’re looking for top-end upside at a discount. Mitchell has averaged 1.29 DraftKings points per minute in his last three games against OKC, posting a Plus/Minus of +7.69 or better each time.
Derrick Favors is projected as a good value tonight, but the upside hasn’t been there for him against OKC this season:
Favors’ best hope would be that Mitchell sits, as his usage rate has gone up by 2.3% with Mitchell of the floor this season, per the On/Off tool. Jae Crowder is cheaper and played almost as much as Favors in Game 1 while exceeding salary-based expectations. Crowder also has seen the biggest bump in usage (+4.7%) with Mitchell off the floor.
At $6,700, Rudy Gobert‘s DraftKings salary hasn’t been this low since Feb. 12. The drop is warranted, though, when you consider how poorly he’s done when Utah is a road underdog this season (DraftKings):
Per the On/Off tool, Gobert’s usage rate has increased by 1.9% with Mitchell off the floor this season, but if Mitchell plays a salary drop is about all Gobert has going for him until the Jazz get back home, where they have a better chance of slowing the pace down.
Joe Ingles should play 30 minutes, but his touches and assists have been down with Rubio back at full strength. Ingles would get a bump if Mitchell is out.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Houston Rockets (-10) | O/U: 214.5
Rockets (112.25)
James Harden has posted a Plus/Minus of +10.43 or higher in three of his past four games against Minnesota, including two of the past three with Butler active:
The biggest concern with Harden in this one is a potential blowout: Minnesota covered last game with a three-point loss as 11.5-point underdogs, and teams that covered their previous playoff game and were double-digit underdogs in the next matchup have gone 7-16 against the spread since 2005, per the Action Network’s John Ewing.
Clint Capela has averaged 1.25 DraftKings points per minute this season — only 0.03 less than Karl-Anthony Towns. Capela was up at 34:27 of playing time in Game 1 and has turned in a Plus/Minus of +11.44 or more in all three games against Minnesota since the break. Towns struggles to defend, and as long as Capela is approaching the number of minutes that Towns gets, he’s the smarter play.
Trevor Ariza and PJ Tucker are both value options at small forward. Ariza is projected for a higher ceiling in our Models because he’s more liable to take and make open 3s. Ariza played 32:43 in Game 1 and got up 13 shots while Tucker played 30:46 but got up only five shots.
Chris Paul underwhelmed in Game 1 with only 14 points on 5-of-14 shooting while turning it over six times. He won’t always shoot that poorly or turn it over that much, and last game’s struggles present a perfect opportunity to use him as a pivot off Westbrook in tournaments.
Eric Gordon can get hot from 3 and pay off in tournaments given his cost, but his recent production against Minnesota provides no indication that he should be used outside of tournaments (DraftKings):
Timberwolves (102.25)
Five games is not a huge sample to work with, but so far this season it’s been profitable to target Minnesota point guards against Houston:
This may seem counterintuitive given the presence of CP3, who is a very good defender, but he was on Teague and Rose for only 25% of their possessions. Teague posted 15 points, nine rebounds, and eight assists in 28:31, which is unsustainable, but he has scored more than 1.0 fantasy points per minute against Houston this season. Rose is worth a shot in tournaments after playing 23:56 and hoisting 14 shots in a close game Sunday, especially since he would probably also benefit in the event of a blowout.
Andrew Wiggins‘ salary has come down $1,600 on DraftKings and $600 on FanDuel over the past nine days. He’s not as good of a value as some guys who are still cheaper, but he has the ability to score and thus makes for a great tournament play who will pay off if he finds his way into more peripheral stats than usual in what’s expected to be the highest-scoring game of the slate.
I already detailed why Capela is a smarter play than Karl-Anthony Towns given their per-minute efficiency and playing time, but Towns is still in play in tournaments on DraftKings, where his salary has fallen to $8,900, its lowest point since Feb. 3. Towns only got up nine shots in Game 1 but averaged 16.3 across four regular-season meetings.
Jimmy Butler also had a season-low against the Rockets in Game 1 with 11 shot attempts. Unlike Towns, though, Butler’s battles with the Rockets have at no point gone smoothly this season in DFS (DraftKings):
Taj Gibson is priced below $5,000 on DraftKings for the first time since March 20. The defensive-minded veteran is a source of cheap minutes at the 4, but he is yet to crack 20 DraftKings points against Houston in five tries.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading NBA News Feed.
Pictured above: LeBron James
Photo credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports
