The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a three-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET, so we’ll go game-by-game.
Washington Wizards at Toronto Raptors (-7) | O/U: 213.5
7 p.m. ET
Toronto Raptors (110.25 implied points)
DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry are the only players priced $7,000 or above on FanDuel who are better bargains there than on DraftKings. DeRozan is coming off his worst shooting game against Washington all season with a 6-for-17 effort that netted 17 points, and he has not been a profitable play lately:
Lowry played 32 minutes or more in each of the past four meetings between these two teams this season but failed to top 11 points three times. Lowry made his hay in the points column during the regular season by shooting 39.9% from 3 on 7.6 attempts per game, but John Wall does a good job limiting his opponent’s effectiveness from downtown:
Lowry exploded for 52.5 FanDuel points on Feb. 1 against Washington on the heels of four 3-point makes on 11 attempts — the only time he made more than one 3 against the Wizards all season — but Wall wasn’t on the floor for that contest.
Delon Wright has a 93% Bargain Rating on FanDuel at $4,100 after playing 24.5 minutes and putting up 18 points, four assists, three steals, one rebound, and one block in Game 1. He’s a great value at $4,100 on DraftKings as well.
Serge Ibaka put up 46 DraftKings points in 33 minutes in Game 1, but the smart money is on him regressing after he shot 8-of-11 from the field and 3-of-4 from downtown while also exceeding his norm with 12 rebounds.
Jonas Valanciunas is yet to top 23 minutes played against Washington in two meetings since the All-Star break and has only 29 rebounds in 106 combined regular season and playoff minutes against them this season. Not surprisingly, he’s hit value only once against them on DraftKings and hasn’t done so on FanDuel (where he’s the better play Tuesday with a 68% Bargain Rating).
Washington Wizards (103.25)
John Wall has played five games since Jan. 25 — and they’ve been good games (DraftKings):
In Game 1 at Toronto on Saturday, Wall managed to pile up 61.75 DraftKings points in 39 minutes despite shooting just 6-of-20 from the field. In fact, he hasn’t scored fewer than 59.5 DraftKings points or played fewer than 36 minutes in each of his past three games dating back to the regular season, and he’s also on a streak of six straight games with double-digit assists. Wall has always been in the 1.3-2.0 steals per game range for his entire career, and this season he quietly averaged 1.1 blocks per game as well. He’s capable of stuffing the stat sheet even when his shot isn’t falling.
Markieff Morris has a 93% Bargain Rating on DraftKings after playing 37.6 minutes and dropping 44 DraftKings points in Game 1. He’s one of the top values on Tuesday at $5,300 on DraftKings and $5,500 on FanDuel.
It’s Black Tuesday for Bradley Beal. Beal’s $6,800 salary on DraftKings is under $7,000 for the first time all season. That implies 32.06 DraftKings points, which shouldn’t be an issue for a player projected for over 40 minutes and averaging 1.05 fantasy points per minute this season.
Marcin Gortat costs $4,300 and has a 97% Bargain Rating on FanDuel. He played 28 minutes last game and averages 0.90 FanDuel points per minute on the season, so it’d be tough for him to fall too far under salary-based expectations. That said, expectations need to be tempered for tournaments because Gortat has struggled to produce positive outliers in the box score on the road this season:
Otto Porter is the rare player on this slate with a better Bargain Rating on FanDuel (60%), where he’s $5,600, than at DraftKings (47%), where he’s $5,400. Porter’s usage rate in Game 1 was 9.9%, though, which is a continuation of a troubling DFS trend: In each of the prior two seasons in which Washington has made the playoffs (2014-15 and 2016-17), Porter’s usage rate was 15.0% or more during the regular season but dropped into the 13s during the playoffs. Porter can’t be counted on to erupt for a lot of points, but at 0.97 FanDuel points per minute on the season, he should be able to pay off his cost or come very close on FanDuel, at least.
Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics (-2) | O/U: 198.5
8 p.m. ET
Boston Celtics (100.25)
Jaylen Brown‘s projected ceiling is in the mid-40s on both sites, but he runs you just $6,000 on DraftKings and $6,400 on FanDuel. Brown has averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute in two meetings against Milwaukee since April 3 and should push for 40 minutes tonight.
Jayson Tatum is a better play on DraftKings at $6,300 than FanDuel at $7,200 — and perhaps even a better play than Brown there. Tatum averaged 1.03 DraftKings points per minute in the two April games between these squads, and he too should push for 40 minutes.
Al Horford has a 93% Bargain Rating on DraftKings and has posted a +4.69 Plus/Minus or better in every game against Milwaukee:
Marcus Morris has a 90% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, where he’s priced at $5,500. He is projected for over 33 minutes tonight and averages 0.86 FanDuel points per minute on the season, so he should have a good shot at exceeding his 24.43-point implied total.
Terry Rozier‘s Bargain Rating on DraftKings is 90%. He’s averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute against the Bucks this season, which would put him right on pace to hit his implied total of 32.56 if he plays minutes in the mid-30s as expected.
Milwaukee Bucks (98.25)
Malcolm Brogdon is just $4,500 on FanDuel and $4,300 on DraftKings and is one of the top values under $5,000 on both sites. He had 16 points, four rebounds, three assists, and a steal in 32.3 minutes in Sunday’s loss.
John Henson is a solid value at $5,500 but a great value at $4,600 on DraftKings. Henson played over 37 minutes in the overtime loss in Game 1, but he can usually be counted on for minutes in the high 20s. He’s scored 0.79 DraftKings points per minute in two meetings against Boston since April 3, but he still offers major upside if he can make a decent-sized dent in the rebounding column.
Like a certain green wall not too far from the home team’s arena, Giannis Antetokounmpo has been a monster in Boston. Giannis has gone over 55 DraftKings points in all three games he’s played in Boston so far this season, and his overall numbers against the Celtics this season are just as impressive (per our Trends tool):
Khris Middleton has been strong against Boston, too, scoring over a DraftKings point per minute:
Eric Bledsoe has a 99% Bargain Rating on DraftKings at $6,500, which is about the only positive to point to for him considering that he’s posted double-digit negative Plus/Minuses in his past two against Boston and has failed to hit 30 DraftKings points in any game against them:
New Orleans Pelicans at Portland Trail Blazers (-6.5) | O/U: 214
10:30 p.m. ET
Portland Trail Blazers (110.25)
Damian Lillard has the top Projected Plus/Minus of any Blazer by far on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Holiday hounded Lillard into 1-of-11 shooting in Game 1 while guarding him, and Lillard shot just 6-of-23 overall but still finished with 43.25 DraftKings points — just 0.82 short of hitting value. You can’t imagine Big Game Dame is not going to come up big with his team down 1-0. He’s averaged 1.20 DraftKings points per minute against New Orleans this season and played over 42 minutes in Game 1, so he could easily blow up his mid-40s salary-based fantasy point expectation and top 50.
At a salary of $4,800 and a Bargain Rating of 90%, Al-Farouq Aminu is a much better play on FanDuel than on DraftKings, where he costs $5,100. Aminu played just under 30 minutes in Game 1 and has averaged 0.88 FanDuel points per minute against New Orleans. He’ll be focused almost solely on defense, but if he gets another 30 minutes and hits his season-average fantasy points per minute, he’d be on track to surpass his 21.2-point expectation.
Zach Collins did a great job on the previously-on-fire Nikola Mirotic down the strecth in Game 1, while Jusuf Nurkic started the game on Brow and predictably struggled:
The Blazers were -7 in the 24.3 minutes Nurkic was on the floor but +5 in the 21.4 Collins was on the floor, so it’s entirely possible the rookie No. 10 overall pick out of Gonzaga continues to cut into Nurkic’s minutes. Collins is only $3,100 on DraftKings and is at the $3,500 minimum on FanDuel.
Evan Turner costs under $4,500 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He played 30 minutes in Game 1 and finished with 13 points, seven rebounds, one assist, and one block. He was much more aggressive than usual, jacking up 15 shots and posting a 26.2% usage rate. As long as Moe Harkless (knee) doesn’t play, Turner should see around 30 minutes and has a good shot of scoring the 20 or so fantasy points he needs to hit value.
C.J. McCollum has shot just 34-of-95 (35.7%) from the field against New Orleans across five meetings this season. He’s been in the 25-40 fantasy point range against the Pelicans in all five meetings this season, hitting value less than half the time on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
After playing 19.5 minutes in Game 1 and grabbing 13 boards to go along with six points and a block, Ed Davis is still only $3,500 on DraftKings and FanDuel and projects for just 2-4% ownership. Davis averages around 0.75 fantasy points per minute, though, so that game may have been an outlier. The minutes were also on the high range for him; he’s played between 12-20 minutes in each of his past 13 games.
New Orleans Pelicans (103.75)
Nikola Mirotic has netted a DraftKings Plus/Minus of +13.19 or better in each of his past six games, eclipsing Tuesday’s salary-based expectation of 36.07 DraftKings points each time. He’s got 45 or more DraftKings points in each of his past five games and managed 49.25 in Game 1 despite shooting just 6-of-15 (40%) from the field. Our Ownership Dashboard reveals that high-stakes players were on Mirotic last game: His ownership was 10% higher in DraftKings’ $1,500 buy-in tournament than in its $10 one.
Anthony Davis has a 99% Bargain Rating on DraftKings. In two games against Portland since March 27, Brow has 75 and 66 DraftKings points. In fact, the only time he didn’t score 35 or more real points against the Blazers was in a game he left after 5:25 due to injury:
While Brow’s Bargain Rating is in the top 2% on DraftKings, Rajon Rondo‘s is up there on FanDuel at 98%. He costs just $6,400 there and played 39.2 minutes in Game 1, taking on most of the ball-handling duties while Jrue Holiday focused on shutting down Lillard at the other end. Rondo finished with 17 assists in that game and has averaged 0.98 FanDuel points per minute in just over 87 total minutes against Portland this season.
Speaking of Jrue Holiday, he’s got a 90% Bargain Rating on DraftKings and has hit value in all five games against Portland this season:
He won’t always shoot 10-of-20, though, and a lack of assists would cap his ceiling a bit.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading NBA News Feed.
Pictured above: Giannis Antetokounmpo
Photo credit: Paul Rutherford — USA TODAY Sports
