The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Day 2 of the NBA Playoffs features another four-game slate starting at 1 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook and the Thunder had already wrapped up their four-game regular-season series against the Jazz by Christmas, so it’s tough to give a lot of weight to Westbrook’s +4.31 Plus/Minus and 75% Consistency on DraftKings against a Utah team that was without Rudy Gobert for two of those games and had a 15-19 record after losing the fourth game to OKC on Dec. 23rd. Westbrook is always in play in tournaments, but he’s unnecessary in cash games considering the cheaper value available at the position.
Value
At $5,900 on DraftKings and $6,500 on FanDuel, Ricky Rubio is priced too low relative to his expected playing time. He’s been dealing with a hamstring injury that’s limited him to playing 24 minutes or less in each of his past four games (and he still hit value in each of the last two despite salaries of $6,800 and $6,600). There’s been no indication that Rubio will still be on any kind of minutes restriction, and Rubio played 33.2 minutes per game in March. His salary doesn’t take into account how high his ceiling is.
Fast Break
Chris Paul might need to flip a switch on Jeff Teague on defense. Per NBA Stats, Teague has shot 15-of-19 (78.9%) on Paul this season in 104 Minnesota possessions. Teague averaged a +7.19 Plus/Minus and 75% Consistency in four games against Houston this season. The shooting percentage isn’t sustainable, but Teague is still a nice tournament play because of his mid-range price tag and the fact head coach Tom Thibodeau isn’t afraid to play him 40 minutes.
Speaking of Paul, he’s been very consistent against Minnesota, with 37-47 DraftKings points in all four games:
The player most negatively correlated to CP3 is Harden, so CP3 makes for a nice pivot off Harden in a game that lays claim to the slate’s highest over/under (216).
George Hill should be back in the lineup for Cleveland as the starting point guard. He has a 99% Bargain Rating on FanDuel at a cost of only $4,000.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden shot 35.0% from the field in three games against the Timberwolves with Jimmy Butler active. Butler and the Minnesota defense forced Harden to pass more and shoot less in those games, limiting him to a -3.74 average Plus/Minus and 33.3% Consistency on DraftKings. Harden has tournament appeal because he’s James Harden and Rockets-Wolves has Sunday’s highest over/under, but there are a lot better values at the position.
Value
Per our On/Off tool, Jaylen Brown‘s usage rate increases by 1.8 percentage points and his assist rate increases by 2.8 percentage points with Kyrie Irving off the floor. Just last week, the second-year phenom put up 24 points, four rebounds, two assists, two steals, and a block in 36 minutes against Milwaukee. He’s averaged 0.91 DraftKings points per minute in four games against the Bucks this season, which would to equate to 32.8 DraftKings points if he plays 36 minutes again.
Fast Break
Donovan Mitchell scored 48.25 and 39.75 DraftKings points in his last two games against the Thunder. His ceiling is high and he benefits from the Thunder being without Andre Roberson. His +1.07 average Plus/Minus as a road underdog this season is less than half his overall +2.51 mark on the season, but his Consistency is only two percentage points less.
With Harden and CP3 demanding so much defensive attention, Eric Gordon may see a lot of Andrew Wiggins, against whom he scored 9.7 points per 100 possessions more than his season average on 50 possessions this season. Gordon is a nice tournament play because he can push for 40 fantasy points if he gets hot from 3. He’s shooting 44.0% on 25 attempts from downtown against Minnesota’s defense this season.
At $6,800 on DraftKings but $8,200 on FanDuel, Khris Middleton has a 99% Bargain Rating on the former. Middleton played Boston four times this season and has had only one poor showing:
Middleton averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute against Boston this season, which puts him in great position to exceed his salary-based implied point total of 32.06.
Rodney Hood is projected for minutes in the mid 20s and is a great value on FanDuel at $3,900 — at $4,500 on DraftKings, not so much. Same goes for teammate Jordan Clarkson, who’s $3,800 on FanDuel but $4,600 on DraftKings. One of them or J.R. Smith or Kyle Korver will likely put up decent numbers for Cleveland, but it’s tough to predict which one. They’re all in play in tournaments.
Small Forward
Stud
It’s switch-flipping time for LeBron James. The Action Network’s PJ Walsh laid out the data-driven arguments for why “Playoff LeBron” is a thing, and I’ll add to it by looking at his defensive rebounds/steals/blocks per 100 possessions in the regular season vs. postseason since he returned to Cleveland:
- 2014-15: Regular season 7.6/2.3/1.0 vs. postseason 11.8/2.1/1.3
- 2015-16: Regular season 8.6/2.0/0.9 vs. postseason 10.8/3.2/1.7
- 2016-17: Regular season 9.7/1.6/0.8 vs. postseason 9.7/2.3/1.5
LeBron’s per-possession defensive numbers increased in seven of nine instances over the past three seasons and suggest he is, in fact, “flipping a switch,” so to speak. LeBron has also been great this season at home…
…and against the Pacers:
LeBron is one of the top studs on the slate and has a 90% Bargain Rating on DraftKings.
I say “one of” because there’s also Giannis Antetokounmpo, who has hit up Boston for 55-plus DraftKings points in all four meetings this season:
Giannis has produced at a rate of 1.52 DraftKings points per minute against Boston this season, which equates to more than 60 DraftKings points if he plays 40 minutes.
Value
Trevor Ariza and P.J. Tucker are the only two players in our Models that are projected for 32 or more minutes and cost under $5,000 on FanDuel. Both are low-usage players that thrive on defensive numbers, but our NBA Trends tool shows that targeting cheap minutes at small forward in situations similar to Ariza’s and Tucker’s has historically yielded profitable results:
Fast Break
Corey Brewer is questionable with a right knee injury, and his uncertain status may drive down his ownership if he does play despite the fact he would likely play 30-plus minutes at a salary of just $4,400 on DraftKings.
In the Action Network’s Thunder-Jazz preview, Matt Moore pointed out that Utah is 15-25 in games in which Joe Ingles makes less than three 3-pointers and that OKC’s best bet is to put Paul George on him. In 116 possessions this season, George held Ingles to just 4-of-14 (28.6%) from downtown and 4.4 points per 100 possessions below his overall season average.
Paul George makes some sense as a tournament play given his ability to fill up the box score in all categories, but Jayson Tatum is an interesting pivot. While George goes against a Jazz squad that’s tied for first in the league in Defensive Rating (103.9), Tatum will go against a Bucks outfit that ranks 19th (110.1).
Power Forward
Stud
Kevin Love has been a model of consistency against the Pacers this season (DraftKings):
Love did a lot of damage on the glass against Indiana, averaging 11.0 rebounds per game. With LeBron turning it up for the playoffs, Love’s rebounds per game have actually decreased slightly from the regular season to the postseason in each of his three postseasons with the Cavs. That said, the Cavs are the second-largest home favorite on the slate, and the smart money is on the under in this game, so there should be a lot of rebounding opportunities available for both players. Love’s +4.69 Opponent Rating is the highest of any player at the position that costs $5,000 or more.
Value
Jabari Parker is underpriced at $5,500 on DraftKings and $5,800 on FanDuel. Parker projects for over 30 minutes and averages 0.99 DraftKings points per minute this season. Over the past month, he averages a +3.03 Plus/Minus and 65% Consistency. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his past seven games, showcasing a ceiling of 58.0 DraftKings points along with a 42-point effort.
Carmelo Anthony should push for minutes in the mid-30s and costs just $5,000 on FanDuel and $5,300 on DraftKings; his FanDuel Bargain Rating is 90%. Melo may be aggressive against Derrick Favors, who he’s beat for 9.2 more points per 100 possessions than his season average in 44 Thunder possessions this season, per NBA Stats. Favors himself has a 90% Bargain Rating on DraftKings at $5,100. He’s averaged a +2.02 Plus/Minus and 70% Consistency over his past 10 games.
Fast Break
Jeff Green will remain in Cleveland’s starting lineup and will likely play over 30 minutes but is priced in the mid-$4,000s on DraftKings and FanDuel. Green averaged 0.79 DraftKings points per minute overall this season, but that average climbed to 0.91 in four games against the Pacers. If he could replicate that and play 30 minutes, Green would be in the 25-30 fantasy-point range.
Center
Stud
Karl-Anthony Towns has been a monster against the Rockets this season (DraftKings):
Towns will run you $9,600 on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 97%. He’s scored 45 or more DraftKings points in seven of his past eight games.
Value
Towns ranks 63rd among 83 qualifying centers in ESPN’s Defensive Real Plus-Minus (0.44), which should allow Clint Capela to put up good numbers as well. Capela averaged 18.8 points and 10.0 rebounds against Minnesota this season, and his +5.1 average DraftKings Plus/Minus against them is the highest on his team. His Opponent Plus/Minus for Sunday’s matchup is a stellar +4.46.
Fast Break
Rudy Gobert has a 99% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, but he has not done well when his team is a road underdog this season:
If you picked Al Horford every time he went against the Bucks this season, he wouldn’t have failed you yet (DraftKings):
Horford has a 99% Bargain Rating on DraftKings and is one of only three center-eligible players that costs $5,000 and up and has an Opponent Rating of +3.83 or more.
Pictured above: LeBron James
Photo credit: Ken Blaze — USA TODAY Sports
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