Approach Shots breaks down all the relevant data to assist you in analyzing the often-times unfamiliar events of the European Tour.
This week the Euro Tour heads to Atzenbrugg, Austria, for the 2016 Lyoness Open at the Diamond Country Club. Chris Wood won this event last year, charging from five shots back on Sunday to finish two shots ahead of Rafa Cabrera Bello, who won this event in 2009 at the age of 25, carding an incredible 60 on the final day. This event is also a home game for PGA golfer, Bernd Wiesberger, who won it in 2012.
What You Need to Know
The Lyoness Open has been played at the Diamond CC for the past seven years, so there is plenty of data to use. There’s a boatload of water hazards and two island greens on the course, so ball striking is at a premium. The most recent winners have traditionally outperformed the field in Greens in Regulation (GIR), Scrambling, and Driving Accuracy (DA). Those are the three metrics I will examine this week.
Because there is no historical data for Euro Tour salaries on DraftKings, I’m looking at trends encompassing all PGA Tour Events.
Long-Term Greens in Regulation
The last five winners at Diamond CC have finished the week ranked in the top 20 in GIR.
Using our free Trends tool, you will discover that golfers with a Long-Term GIR Score in the 70th percentile have historically produced a Plus/Minus of +1.42 with 52.5-percent Consistency.
Jose-Filipe Lima and Aaron Pike are tied atop this week’s field, both boasting a 72.3-percent Long-Term GIR. But don’t get too excited about them, as Lima’s 72.6 Long-Term Adjusted Round Score (LT Adj Rd Score) and Pike’s 73.7 LT Adj Rd Score are strong indicators of the type of all-around (subpar) players they are.
Joost Luiten ranks third this week with a 72-percent LT GIR, and his 70.3 LT Adj Rd Score is tied for second best. Luiten won this event in 2013 and has finished inside the top five in all three of his starts at Diamond CC. The year he won the event, he finished first in GIR.
Recent Greens in Regulation
Recent GIR has been an even stronger historical indicator of success, as players in the 70th percentile have amassed a Plus/Minus of +2.66 with 55-percent Consistency.
The aforementioned Luiten’s 74.1-percent Recent GIR is best in this week’s field. Just a fraction behind him at 74 percent is Richie Ramsay, who is putting that recent GIR to good use, as indicated by his 69.4 Recent Adj Rd Score, second best in the week’s field. Ramsay comes in extremely hot, making the cut in ten of his last eleven starts. He finished 11th at the Lyoness Open in his only start here last year.
Long-Term Scrambling
Most of the last five winners at Diamond CC have finished the week in the top five in Scrambling.
Players with a LT Scrambling Score in the 70th percentile have historically provided a Plus/Minus of +1.28 with 52.2-percent Consistency.
Mads Sogaard is light years ahead of the field with his 70-percent LT Scrambling Rate, but all but three of his starts since 2014 have come on the Challenge Tour, which is basically the Euro version of the Web.com Tour. His 18.6-percent Long-term Field Ranking shows the level of competitions he has been playing.
Last year’s Lyoness Open Champion, Chris Wood ranks second in the field with a 59.3-percent Scrambling Score and makes for a more appealing target. He has finished first and 12th here in his only two starts, is coming off a win at the BMW PGA Championship in his last start, and has made six straight cuts. Wood’s 70.3 LT Adj Rd Score ties him with Luiten for second in the field.
Recent Scrambling
Recent Scrambling has been a very similar indicator of success, as golfers in the 70th percentile have accumulated a Plus/Minus of +1.44 with 52.9-percent Consistency.
Mikael Lundberg ranks first with a 70.3-percent Recent Scrambling Score. Although Lundberg’s Recent Adj Rd Score of 72.8 is a bit disconcerting, he has a little bit of course history on his side. Lundberg won this event in 2014 and has made the cut in all four of his starts at Diamond CC. His 71.1 Course Adj Rd Score is thirteenth best in the field.
Long-Term Driving Accuracy
The last five winners at Diamond CC have finished the week ranked in the top 25 in DA.
Overall, LT DA hasn’t been nearly as productive as the previous two trends, with golfers in the 70th percentile having a +0.61 Plus/Minus with only 50-percent Consistency. But the metric has been an important part of winning at this course, so it needs to be considered.
Matthew Millar’s 73.2-percent LT DA ranks him first in the field this week, but his 52.3-percent GIR and 50.3-percent Scrambling leave him wanting more in two crucial categories.
Tjaart Van der Walt ranks seventh in LT DA this week with a 70.1-percent score. He also ranks well in LT GIR, at 67.2 percent. Van der Walt has made the cut in all three of his attempts at Diamond CC and has never finished worse than 32nd. He’s coming in off a tenth-place finish at last week’s Nordea Masters.
Recent Driving Accuracy
Recent DA has not been a historically strong indicator of positive results on the PGA Tour, producing a miniscule Plus/Minus of +0.08 with 50.2-percent Consistency for golfers inside the 70th percentile. Euros do things a little differently, however, like wear Speedos at the beach and fanny packs. At Diamond CC, the metric has been important.
Chiragh (don’t call me Howard) Kumar is a winner . . . on the Asian Tour . . . once . . . in seven years. He does rank first in Recent DA this week, but his 40.3-percent Recent GIR is flat-out weird and ranks him dead last in the field. You may have smoked one too many on your way to White Castle if you think Chiragh’s data screams “Play Me!”
Lee Slattery’s 75.6-percent Recent DA ranks third in this week’s field, and his 67.1-percent Recent GIR is much more appealing. Slattery is what they call a course horse at Diamond CC, making the cut in all five of his starts, including a ninth-place finish in 2013 and a fourth-place finish in 2014. His 70.8 Course Adj Rd Score is eleventh best in the field.
The data don’t lie. Good luck this weekend!
