With an eccentrically top-heavy slate filled with totals exceeding 200 throughout (no, literally), values that ward off ownership will be hard to come by for tournaments. Don’t worry, we have you covered. Ignore the family and enjoy this game-by-game walkthrough.
New Orleans Pelicans at Miami Heat (-6)
Implied Total: 102.8 – 97.3
Convince your children that Santa doesn’t visit until noon. That’s one of the few ways to ensure your lineup doesn’t fizzle out in a hurry. With Goran Dragic (thumb) recently upgraded to probable and Tyler Johnson questionable, Beno Udrih achieves must-play status if both sit. We could sit around and argue his actual value as a basketball player all day (spoiler alert: it’s not good), but at only $4,000 he should find no issues exceeding his implied total of 17.11 points. Note as the only available point guard in his last start, Udrih logged 33 minutes and finished with 26.75 DraftKings points. It’s even easier to slide him into your FanDuel lineups with a Bargain Rating of 89%. It’s the easiest, however, to avoid using him entirely if either guard suits up.
Though an argument could be made to roster Luol Deng (who has logged at least 32 minutes in his last seven games) in tournaments, the Christmas slate is chalked full of small forwards that will essentially have to be in lineups one way or another. Hassan Whiteside makes for the only other Miami player that warrants both cash and GPP considerations (as our Cash model shows Dwyane Wade with a porous Rating of 60.71). The Pelicans have an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.3 points below expectations allowed to centers, but Whiteside, along with Dwight Howard, remain the only two centers on this slate who average at least six touches in the paint per game. Whiteside has also exceeded his projections by 50% over the last month.
With Miami having the fifth-best Defensive Rating in the league, it’s hard to find any advantageous spots for the Pelicans in cash games. Though Tyreke Evans ($7,800) has scored 51 DraftKings points in each of his last two starts (and remains underpriced at $7,300 on FanDuel), the Heat have limited opposing shooting guards to -1.5 points below salary-based expectations. Our Models have Anthony Davis with the highest projected ceiling of any player throughout the evening, but his overall Rating of 83.58 in Tournament play is still miles above where he stands in cash (69.77, for those wondering).
If you’re looking for an intriguing off-the-radar fill-in, Jrue Holiday, volatile minutes and all, has now averaged +9.19 points above expectations over his last 10 games.
Chicago Bulls at Oklahoma City (-8.5)
Implied Total: 107.3 – 98.3
Let’s not spend too much time discussing Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and Jimmy Butler as their values remain obvious. Though our models have Stephen Curry projected to score 2.4 more points than Westbrook, it’s Westbrook who has a Rating 1.58 points higher in Tournament play. And even in a slate sprinkled with LeBron James and Kawhi Leonard, Durant has the highest projected points at his position. Oh, and Butler ($7,500) has a 92% Bargain Rating on DraftKings. Done.
Instead, there are two points that assuredly need attention:
1) Don’t chase that Enes Kanter-dragon unless you truly believe the Thunder will be resting starters in the fourth quarter. In games that Oklahoma City has been favored by double-digits, Kanter has exceeded his expected points by an average of +5.97. When the Thunder have been favored by less than 10 points, however…
2) Pau Gasol, the most expensive at his position, leads all centers with nine Pro Trends. Who plays behind him remains the real question. With Joakim Noah out for the foreseeable future, someone is likely to produce as the Thunder allow +1.6 points above expectations to power forwards (+1.3 to shooting forwards). Taj Gibson scored 28.75 points in 32 minutes on Monday. Nikola Mirotic scored 24.5 in 21 minutes. But both our Cash and Tournament models favor the #FreeBobbyPortis movement as only Anthony Davis and Blake Griffin are Rated higher on the day.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Golden State (-6.5)
Implied Total: 108.5 – 101.5
Slated with the highest total of the evening, Stephen Curry’s projected floor of 37.1 points is as safe as they come at guard. It’s a matter of whether or not everyone surrounding him can exceed their implied points. Klay Thompson, for instance, has the fourth-highest salary at his position and is rated poorly in our models due to his Projected Plus/Minus of -2.6 points. Though he has scored at least 42.25 DraftKings points in three of his last five contests, he would have to score 32.75 just to match his salary. Same goes for Draymond Green whose price tag of $9,200, though justifiable, would imply he score at least 41.03 points.
Even priced at $10,000, LeBron has a Projected Plus/Minus of +5.8. Of the Big Three at small forward today, James also comes with the nine Pro Trends and the lowest Dud percentage in the last month. As easy as it might be to slide him into your lineup, the same cannot be said for Kyrie Irving. Our models have him projected to play 27.4 minutes (essentially eight more than his previous outing), but whether he actually trumps 20 is anyone’s guess. Still, his Bargain Rating of 93% on DraftKings is enticing for tournaments.
San Antonio Spurs (-6) at Houston Rockets
Implied Total: 103.5 – 97
On a schedule filled with the Lakers and Pelicans, your first guess at which would be implied to score the fewest points of the night would likely be…Los Angeles? Well, try again. The correct answer is C: the Houston Rockets. Implied to score only 97 points, there’s a better than average chance that even James Harden doesn’t find his way onto a winning GPP lineup tonight; the Spurs allow -2.1 points fewer than expected to opposing guards. Let me know when Donatas Motiejunas starts getting 25 minutes.
Trevor Ariza is commonly mentioned for his defense, but the following is a list of Rockets players that are currently ranked lower in Defensive Rating (105.7) this season: Sam Dekker, Montrezl Harrell, Terrence Jones, Jason Terry, and James Harden. That would help explain the +2.3 points above expectations allowed to opposing forwards, which makes Leonard an easy lock for cash. All others around him make for viable tournament options, especially with this being the first of a back-to-back for San Antonio (potentially ensuring starters log additional time here and sit out tomorrow night).
L.A. Clippers (-11) at L.A. Lakers
Implied Total: 109.5 – 97.5
In his last six games, Chris Paul has averaged 47.54 DraftKings points. Even if the Clippers were to run away sooner than later, the minimum time Paul sees on the court is likely 31 minutes. He, Blake Griffin (who has a 74% Bargain Rating at FanDuel), and DeAndre Jordan (whose projected ceiling is +2.0 points more than that of Pau Gasol’s despite the $900 difference) are all options that warrant heavy consideration (especially Jordan, who is currently the highest Rated player overall in our Cash model).
As for the Lakers, it’s hard to fight against both narratives and numbers. Kobe Bryant has scored at least 26.75 DraftKings points in six of his last eight games. Implied to score at least 28.15 points (and this being his final Christmas game and all), I would argue his $6,400 salary to still be of value. As for the jumble surrounding him, it’s hard to consider anyone but Lou Williams (who has exceeded his projections in 80% of his last 10 games) and whomever laces up at power forward. With Julius Randle currently probable, Brandon Bass would arguably become a confident punt play as he’s logged 30 and 16 minutes in his last two games. It also helps that the Clippers have an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.6 points allowed to the four spot.
Good luck, and happy holidays.
