An Introduction to TASER

I’ll be honest with you – my main sport is basketball. When I started writing for Fantasy Labs and a variety of other places and I had to expand my knowledge of other sports (I mean, I’ve grown up watching NFL and MLB heavily but I can’t say I knew what wOBA was when I was 16) rather quickly. While it was stressful and even a little embarrassing/humbling at times, I think it’s actually made me a better writer across all of the sports I now cover.

The reason is something that fellow Fantasy Lab-ber Jonathan Bales wrote about in an article recently: idea sex. I encourage you to read that article because it’s good and it explains the concept better than I could, but essentially it’s about taking two unrelated ideas and thinking about them together. I think a lot more of this can and should happen across different sports.

The reason I bring this all up is because when I first started diving into the advanced metrics of MLB, I was really drawn to the idea of BABIP, or a statistic that more-or-less helps to measure luck and subsequent regression either way as a result. I know that some statisticians have been musing on this idea for a while – Ken Pomeroy, for example, has a “Luck” metric on his site for NCAA hoops. Also, analysts can talk about luck in terms of knowing where an average of something should be (mean) and whether it’s significantly higher or lower than that. It’s not a one-number thing, but it’s a useful anecdote to talk about either in articles or broadcasts.

However, the NFL doesn’t seem to have any sort of thing. Sure, it kind of exists in a broad form in terms of team wins. Pythagorean wins exist for the main sports and it essentially just says how many wins a team “should” have based on their point/run differential. Set that as your mean and you can see which teams have been lucky or not.

Obviously, context means a ton in every statistic that tries to incorporate or find luck. An example off the top of my head is Lance Stephenson – he shot almost impossibly bad last season for the Charlotte Hornets and I waited and waited and waited for regression that never came. There were probably a multitude of reasons why it didn’t – perhaps confidence, role, injury, etc… — so it can sometimes be hard to separate true luckiness and unluckiness from other variables that skew it.

So, this all leads me to introduce an idea that is far from perfect and finished as a product/stat/whatever you want to call it. I was inspired by the luck idea and by BABIP and wanted to try to create something along those lines for the NFL, and specifically for NFL receivers. The metric I have come up with is called TASER, short for Targets Add Scores Except in Redzone.

Ok, now the explanation.

I’ve had an idea like this for a while, but it wasn’t until Demaryius Thomas’ first couple of games happened that really jolted it out of me. Let me explain – Thomas led the NFL in both total targets (191) and redzone targets (40) in 2014. However, through the first two weeks of 2015, Thomas had 25 total targets but 0 redzone targets and 0 touchdowns. Obviously, we wouldn’t expect that trend to continue for a receiver like Thomas, so I wanted to try to quantify that regression into a number. What I came up with was TASER.

It’s really simple and the calculation is exactly the acronym: add a player’s total targets to their touchdowns and then divide by their redzone targets and touchdowns. This works because it operates under the simple assumption for the majority of receivers – most receivers that score a high number of touchdowns will also get a high number of targets in the redzone. Also, most receivers that score a high number of touchdowns also are a big part of their passing offense, which can be quantified by their total targets. As such, we see the difference between those two ideas and see how “lucky” or “unlucky” a receiver has been during the season.

Now, as all stats, there are expections and you have to use common sense to interpret the data. For example, we know that Julian Edelman is going to be quite the outlier in this regard – he gets a ton of receptions all the way up to the redzone, where then Brady focuses on Gronkowski. That happens and with some slot receivers, their data will have to be interpreted through a different lens. I’ve talked with Bales about this idea and he suggested adding in a component of expectation (kind of like our Plus/Minus) and I think he’s right and I’ll have to work on that for the future.

Just as an example, I ran the data after the first two weeks and here were the top 20 scores. For reference, there’s really no theoretical top limit – anything above 3 means regression (as in they’ve been “unlucky”) with it teir-ing up accordingly. Obviously, below 3 means they’ve been “lucky.”

Name Team Position TASER
Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR 6.000
Cooper, Amari OAK WR 5.400
Jones, Julio ATL WR 4.875
Lewis, Dion NE RB 4.400
Crabtree, Michael OAK WR 4.286
Cook, Jared STL TE 4.000
Bennett, Martellus CHI TE 4.000
Sanders, Emmanuel DEN WR 3.889
Ginn, Ted CAR WR 3.833
Sproles, Darren PHI RB 3.800
Tate, Golden DET WR 3.667
Edelman, Julian NE WR 3.636
Johnson, Calvin DET WR 3.625
Vereen, Shane NYG RB 3.600
Harvin, Percy BUF WR 3.600
Allen, Keenan SD WR 3.571
Beckham, Odell NYG WR 3.500
Washington, Nate HOU WR 3.429
Baldwin, Doug SEA WR 3.429
Heyward-Bey, Darrius PIT WR 3.400

 

Thomas indeed came up with the highest TASER, thus expecting regression to more touchdowns and redzone targets. While he received no RZ targets in Week 3, he did have two in Week 4. I would expect him to stay near the top of that list until either he regresses to closer to his average of 2.5 per game or we find out that the offense or Peyton has changed so much that they no longer feature Demaryius in this way. I’d bet on the former, but I don’t think the latter is impossible nor does it make TASER worthless.

Running it after Week 4, there’s definitely some interesting results. Most notably, Demaryius Thomas increases his TASER and could be up to double-digits in a couple weeks if we don’t see the regression we expect. He’s currently on pace for a career high in targets – his 50 targets through 4 games puts him right at 200 for the year – but is on track for only 4 touchdowns, despite being in double-digits the last three years. You can see why TASER would scream regression.

Here’s the top 20 through Week 4, and at the bottom of this article, I’ll add the entire table of NFL players.

Name Team Position TASER
Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR 8.286
Cooper, Amari OAK WR 8.167
Allen, Keenan SD WR 6.111
Clay, Charles BUF TE 5.571
Lewis, Dion NE RB 5.400
Britt, Kenny STL WR 5.400
Beckham, Odell NYG WR 5.300
Brown, Antonio PIT WR 5.200
Matthews, Rishard MIA WR 5.143
Cooks, Brandin NO WR 5.000
Benjamin, Travis CLE WR 4.875
Tate, Golden DET WR 4.857
Colston, Marques NO WR 4.833
Crabtree, Michael OAK WR 4.800
Robinson, Allen JAC WR 4.800
Bennett, Martellus CHI TE 4.750
Sanders, Emmanuel DEN WR 4.636
Baldwin, Doug SEA WR 4.571
Jones, Julio ATL WR 4.533
Hurns, Allen JAC WR 4.444

 

Amari Cooper is an interesting case – we don’t have the data on him historically like we do with Demaryius, but his overall numbers, which are outstanding for a rookie, should put him at more than just two touchdowns through the first four games. I would lean that way just from knowing his skill set and watching him play in college, but there will be guys who are naturally higher or lower TASER guys throughout their careers, just like there are guys who always seem to have a lower or higher BABIP than we’d expect.

I’d expect TASER to have more weird stuff than BABIP just because football is naturally less predictive than baseball because of the differences in sample sizes. That’s why I think using the most frequent stat for receiving (targets) is the way to go in attempting to measure luck and regression.

I also think there might have to be some stuff added to account for completion percentage and average depth of target, as this would probably affect the data – not all receivers are the same, think Julio Jones and Julian Edelman. However, this is a start and something I think can be communal – let me know your thoughts and ideas. I’ve never really tried to invent a statistic before, so there might be some really obvious flaws that I’m missing because I’m too close to it at the moment. However, I do feel confident in the idea and that eventually we can craft this into something really useful as football catches up with the other major sports in terms of predictive analytics.

TASER data through Week 4: 

Name Team Position TASER
Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR 8.286
Cooper, Amari OAK WR 8.167
Allen, Keenan SD WR 6.111
Clay, Charles BUF TE 5.571
Lewis, Dion NE RB 5.400
Britt, Kenny STL WR 5.400
Beckham, Odell NYG WR 5.300
Brown, Antonio PIT WR 5.200
Matthews, Rishard MIA WR 5.143
Cooks, Brandin NO WR 5.000
Benjamin, Travis CLE WR 4.875
Tate, Golden DET WR 4.857
Colston, Marques NO WR 4.833
Crabtree, Michael OAK WR 4.800
Robinson, Allen JAC WR 4.800
Bennett, Martellus CHI TE 4.750
Sanders, Emmanuel DEN WR 4.636
Baldwin, Doug SEA WR 4.571
Jones, Julio ATL WR 4.533
Hurns, Allen JAC WR 4.444
Harvin, Percy BUF WR 4.375
Johnson, Calvin DET WR 4.231
Dorsett, Phillip IND WR 4.200
Dunbar, Lance DAL RB 4.143
Washington, Nate HOU WR 4.125
Evans, Mike TB WR 4.125
Brown, John ARI WR 4.111
Matthews, Jordan PHI WR 4.091
Hilton, T.Y. IND WR 4.091
Garcon, Pierre WAS WR 4.000
Ingram, Mark NO RB 4.000
Sproles, Darren PHI RB 4.000
Vereen, Shane NYG RB 4.000
Forsett, Justin BAL RB 4.000
Watson, Benjamin NO TE 4.000
Murray, Latavius OAK RB 4.000
Johnson, David ARI RB 4.000
Williams, Maxx BAL TE 4.000
Smith, Steve BAL WR 3.929
Edelman, Julian NE WR 3.923
Wallace, Mike MIN WR 3.875
Cunningham, Benny STL RB 3.833
Gabriel, Taylor CLE WR 3.833
Wilson, Marquess CHI WR 3.833
Moncrief, Donte IND WR 3.818
Hartline, Brian CLE WR 3.800
Maclin, Jeremy KC WR 3.750
Reed, Jordan WAS TE 3.727
Woodhead, Danny SD RB 3.714
Heyward-Bey, Darrius PIT WR 3.714
Cook, Jared STL TE 3.625
Freeman, Devonta ATL RB 3.625
Watkins, Sammy BUF WR 3.600
Miller, Lamar MIA RB 3.600
Yeldon, T.J. JAC RB 3.600
Lockett, Tyler SEA WR 3.600
Shorts, Cecil HOU WR 3.538
Ginn, Ted CAR WR 3.500
Agholor, Nelson PHI WR 3.500
Woods, Robert BUF WR 3.500
Johnson, Andre IND WR 3.429
Coleman, Brandon NO WR 3.429
Cooper, Riley PHI WR 3.400
Brown, Marlon BAL WR 3.333
Powell, Bilal NYJ RB 3.286
Murphy, Louis TB WR 3.286
Witten, Jason DAL TE 3.273
Kelce, Travis KC TE 3.273
Marshall, Brandon NYJ WR 3.250
Aiken, Kamar BAL WR 3.250
Randle, Rueben NYG WR 3.250
Crowder, Jamison WAS WR 3.250
Fleener, Coby IND TE 3.250
Ebron, Eric DET TE 3.222
Riddick, Theo DET RB 3.222
Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR 3.200
Johnson, Steve SD WR 3.200
Anderson, C.J. DEN RB 3.200
Kendricks, Lance STL TE 3.200
Hankerson, Leonard ATL WR 3.167
Wheaton, Markus PIT WR 3.167
White, Roddy ATL WR 3.167
Celek, Garrett SF TE 3.167
Enunwa, Quincy NYJ WR 3.167
Beasley, Cole DAL WR 3.111
Snead, Willie NO WR 3.111
Charles, Jamaal KC RB 3.091
Hopkins, DeAndre HOU WR 3.087
Ertz, Zach PHI TE 3.000
Hawkins, Andrew CLE WR 3.000
Owusu, Chris NYJ WR 3.000
Bernard, Giovani CIN RB 3.000
Polk, Chris HOU RB 3.000
Sims, Charles TB RB 3.000
Tamme, Jacob ATL TE 3.000
Jennings, Greg MIA WR 3.000
Robinson, Khiry NO RB 3.000
Mathews, Ryan PHI RB 3.000
Gore, Frank IND RB 3.000
Spiller, C.J. NO RB 3.000
Landry, Jarvis MIA WR 2.944
Green, A.J. CIN WR 2.938
Royal, Eddie CHI WR 2.909
Grant, Ryan WAS WR 2.889
Douglas, Harry TEN WR 2.875
Floyd, Michael ARI WR 2.875
Floyd, Malcom SD WR 2.857
Cameron, Jordan MIA TE 2.833
Austin, Miles PHI WR 2.833
Wright, Kendall TEN WR 2.800
Barnidge, Gary CLE TE 2.800
Jennings, Rashad NYG RB 2.800
Walters, Bryan JAC WR 2.800
Kearse, Jermaine SEA WR 2.778
Stills, Kenny MIA WR 2.750
Adams, Davante GB WR 2.714
Moore, Lance DET WR 2.714
Funchess, Devin CAR WR 2.714
Mumphery, Keith HOU WR 2.714
Lewis, Marcedes JAC TE 2.714
Austin, Tavon STL WR 2.700
Daniels, Owen DEN TE 2.700
Greene, Rashad JAC WR 2.667
Brown, Corey CAR WR 2.667
Peterson, Adrian MIN RB 2.667
Abdullah, Ameer DET RB 2.625
Randle, Joseph DAL RB 2.600
Boldin, Anquan SF WR 2.583
Graham, Jimmy SEA TE 2.583
Davis, Vernon SF TE 2.571
Grimes, Jonathan HOU RB 2.571
McCoy, LeSean BUF RB 2.571
Bailey, Stedman STL WR 2.571
Walker, Delanie TEN TE 2.571
Jackson, Vincent TB WR 2.556
Rudolph, Kyle MIN TE 2.545
Donnell, Larry NYG TE 2.545
Williams, Terrance DAL WR 2.533
Jones, James GB WR 2.533
Forte, Matt CHI RB 2.500
Green, Ladarius SD TE 2.500
Rodgers, Richard GB TE 2.500
Wright, Jarius MIN WR 2.500
Patton, Quinton SF WR 2.500
Jones, Marvin CIN WR 2.455
Cobb, Randall GB WR 2.450
Gillmore, Crockett BAL TE 2.444
Smith, Torrey SF WR 2.444
Lee, Marqise JAC WR 2.400
McCluster, Dexter TEN RB 2.400
Gordon, Melvin SD RB 2.400
Starks, James GB RB 2.400
Thompson, Chris WAS RB 2.400
Gronkowski, Rob NE TE 2.375
Eifert, Tyler CIN TE 2.357
Olsen, Greg CAR TE 2.350
Juszczyk, Kyle BAL FB 2.333
Montgomery, Ty GB WR 2.333
Rivera, Mychal OAK TE 2.286
Hogan, Chris BUF WR 2.286
Dobson, Aaron NE WR 2.250
Graham, Garrett HOU TE 2.250
Williams, DeAngelo PIT RB 2.200
Bell, Joique DET RB 2.200
Mason, Tre STL RB 2.200
Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB 2.200
Meredith, Cameron CHI WR 2.200
Miller, Zach CHI TE 2.200
Wilson, Albert KC WR 2.200
Hyde, Carlos SF RB 2.167
Willson, Luke SEA TE 2.167
Martin, Doug TB RB 2.167
Williams, Karlos BUF RB 2.167
Bellamy, Josh CHI WR 2.167
Decker, Eric NYJ WR 2.154
Johnson, Charles MIN WR 2.143
Fells, Darren ARI TE 2.143
Fells, Daniel NYG TE 2.143
Hill, Josh NO TE 2.143
Jackson, Fred SEA RB 2.143
Parker, Preston NYG WR 2.125
Lynch, Marshawn SEA RB 2.125
Amendola, Danny NE WR 2.125
Seferian-Jenkins, Austin TB TE 2.111
Norwood, Jordan DEN WR 2.111
Sanu, Mohamed CIN WR 2.091
Murray, DeMarco PHI RB 2.000
Huff, Josh PHI WR 2.000
Reece, Marcel OAK FB 2.000
Thomas, DeAnthony KC WR 2.000
Robinson, Josh IND RB 2.000
Lacy, Eddie GB RB 2.000
Crowell, Isaiah CLE RB 2.000
Dickson, Ed CAR TE 2.000
Johnson, Chris ARI RB 2.000
Pierce, Bernard JAC RB 2.000
Whittaker, Fozzy CAR RB 2.000
Brown, Jaron ARI WR 1.857
Roberts, Andre WAS WR 1.857
Gresham, Jermaine ARI TE 1.857
Coffman, Chase TEN TE 1.833
Jeffery, Alshon CHI WR 1.800
Griffin, Ryan HOU TE 1.800
Nelson, J.J. ARI WR 1.800
Burkhead, Rex CIN RB 1.800
OShaughnessy, James KC TE 1.800
Harbor, Clay JAC TE 1.800
Smith, Lee OAK TE 1.800
Fasano, Anthony TEN TE 1.778
Miller, Heath PIT TE 1.750
Roberts, Seth OAK WR 1.750
Hunter, Justin TEN WR 1.714
Taliaferro, Lorenzo BAL RB 1.714
Holmes, Andre OAK WR 1.714
Williams, Damien MIA RB 1.667
Walford, Clive OAK TE 1.667
Matthews, Chris SEA WR 1.667
Morris, Alfred WAS RB 1.667
Allen, Dwayne IND TE 1.625
Cotchery, Jerricho CAR WR 1.625
Tolbert, Mike CAR FB 1.625
Blue, Alfred HOU RB 1.600
Bolden, Brandon NE RB 1.600
Cunningham, Jerome NYG TE 1.600
Dray, Jim CLE TE 1.600
Ellison, Rhett MIN TE 1.600
Humphries, Adam TB WR 1.600
Johnson, Malcolm CLE FB 1.600
Jones, Matt WAS RB 1.600
McFadden, Darren DAL RB 1.600
Olawale, Jamize OAK RB 1.600
McKinnon, Jerick MIN RB 1.600
Street, Devin DAL WR 1.600
Asiata, Matt MIN RB 1.600
DiMarco, Patrick ATL FB 1.600
Hillman, Ronnie DEN RB 1.600
Rodgers, Jacquizz CHI RB 1.600
Stevens, Craig TEN TE 1.600
Ivory, Chris NYJ RB 1.571
Campanaro, Michael BAL WR 1.571
Fiedorowicz, C.J. HOU TE 1.571
Sankey, Bishop TEN RB 1.556
Bryant, Dez DAL WR 1.500
Davis, Mike SF RB 1.500
Bell, Blake SF TE 1.500
Caldwell, Andre DEN WR 1.500
McDonald, Vance SF TE 1.500
Toilolo, Levine ATL TE 1.500
Waller, Darren BAL WR 1.500
Williams, Nick ATL WR 1.500
Parker, DeVante MIA WR 1.444
Carrier, Derek WAS TE 1.429
Davis, Knile KC RB 1.400
Ellington, Bruce SF WR 1.400
Jackson, DeSean WAS WR 1.400
Jones, Taiwan OAK RB 1.400
Robinson, Denard JAC RB 1.400
White, DeAndrew SF WR 1.400
Bowe, Dwayne CLE WR 1.400
Oliver, Branden SD RB 1.400
Patterson, Cordarrelle MIN WR 1.400
Shepard, Russell TB WR 1.400
Sherman, Anthony KC FB 1.400
Varga, Tyler IND FB 1.400
Ward, Terron ATL RB 1.400
Green, Virgil DEN TE 1.375
Escobar, Gavin DAL TE 1.333
Coleman, Tevin ATL RB 1.333
Ellington, Andre ARI RB 1.333
Stoneburner, Jake MIA TE 1.333
Grant, Corey JAC RB 1.333
Housler, Rob CLE TE 1.333
Johnson, Austin NO FB 1.286
Bush, Reggie SF RB 1.286
Celek, Brent PHI TE 1.286
Chandler, Scott NE TE 1.273
Alualu, Tyson JAC DT 1.200
Cadet, Travaris NE RB 1.200
Coleman, Derrick SEA FB 1.200
Davis, Geremy NYG WR 1.200
Davis, Kellen NYJ TE 1.200
Felton, Jerome BUF RB 1.200
Fisher, Jake CIN OT 1.200
Fowler, Jalston TEN FB 1.200
Hayne, Jarryd SF RB 1.200
Hill, Jeremy CIN RB 1.200
Jacobs, Nic JAC TE 1.200
Mulligan, Matthew BUF TE 1.200
Nix, Roosevelt PIT RB 1.200
Pettigrew, Brandon DET TE 1.200
Sims, Dion MIA TE 1.200
Swaim, Geoff DAL TE 1.200
Young, Darrel WAS FB 1.200
Green-Beckham, Dorial TEN WR 1.182
Allen, Javorius BAL RB 1.167
Rainey, Bobby TB RB 1.167
Butler, Brice DAL WR 1.143
Draughn, Shaun CLE RB 1.143
Hewitt, Ryan CIN TE 1.000
Miller, Bruce SF FB 1.000
Reitz, Joe IND G 1.000
Streater, Rod OAK WR 1.000

I’ll be honest with you – my main sport is basketball. When I started writing for Fantasy Labs and a variety of other places and I had to expand my knowledge of other sports (I mean, I’ve grown up watching NFL and MLB heavily but I can’t say I knew what wOBA was when I was 16) rather quickly. While it was stressful and even a little embarrassing/humbling at times, I think it’s actually made me a better writer across all of the sports I now cover.

The reason is something that fellow Fantasy Lab-ber Jonathan Bales wrote about in an article recently: idea sex. I encourage you to read that article because it’s good and it explains the concept better than I could, but essentially it’s about taking two unrelated ideas and thinking about them together. I think a lot more of this can and should happen across different sports.

The reason I bring this all up is because when I first started diving into the advanced metrics of MLB, I was really drawn to the idea of BABIP, or a statistic that more-or-less helps to measure luck and subsequent regression either way as a result. I know that some statisticians have been musing on this idea for a while – Ken Pomeroy, for example, has a “Luck” metric on his site for NCAA hoops. Also, analysts can talk about luck in terms of knowing where an average of something should be (mean) and whether it’s significantly higher or lower than that. It’s not a one-number thing, but it’s a useful anecdote to talk about either in articles or broadcasts.

However, the NFL doesn’t seem to have any sort of thing. Sure, it kind of exists in a broad form in terms of team wins. Pythagorean wins exist for the main sports and it essentially just says how many wins a team “should” have based on their point/run differential. Set that as your mean and you can see which teams have been lucky or not.

Obviously, context means a ton in every statistic that tries to incorporate or find luck. An example off the top of my head is Lance Stephenson – he shot almost impossibly bad last season for the Charlotte Hornets and I waited and waited and waited for regression that never came. There were probably a multitude of reasons why it didn’t – perhaps confidence, role, injury, etc… — so it can sometimes be hard to separate true luckiness and unluckiness from other variables that skew it.

So, this all leads me to introduce an idea that is far from perfect and finished as a product/stat/whatever you want to call it. I was inspired by the luck idea and by BABIP and wanted to try to create something along those lines for the NFL, and specifically for NFL receivers. The metric I have come up with is called TASER, short for Targets Add Scores Except in Redzone.

Ok, now the explanation.

I’ve had an idea like this for a while, but it wasn’t until Demaryius Thomas’ first couple of games happened that really jolted it out of me. Let me explain – Thomas led the NFL in both total targets (191) and redzone targets (40) in 2014. However, through the first two weeks of 2015, Thomas had 25 total targets but 0 redzone targets and 0 touchdowns. Obviously, we wouldn’t expect that trend to continue for a receiver like Thomas, so I wanted to try to quantify that regression into a number. What I came up with was TASER.

It’s really simple and the calculation is exactly the acronym: add a player’s total targets to their touchdowns and then divide by their redzone targets and touchdowns. This works because it operates under the simple assumption for the majority of receivers – most receivers that score a high number of touchdowns will also get a high number of targets in the redzone. Also, most receivers that score a high number of touchdowns also are a big part of their passing offense, which can be quantified by their total targets. As such, we see the difference between those two ideas and see how “lucky” or “unlucky” a receiver has been during the season.

Now, as all stats, there are expections and you have to use common sense to interpret the data. For example, we know that Julian Edelman is going to be quite the outlier in this regard – he gets a ton of receptions all the way up to the redzone, where then Brady focuses on Gronkowski. That happens and with some slot receivers, their data will have to be interpreted through a different lens. I’ve talked with Bales about this idea and he suggested adding in a component of expectation (kind of like our Plus/Minus) and I think he’s right and I’ll have to work on that for the future.

Just as an example, I ran the data after the first two weeks and here were the top 20 scores. For reference, there’s really no theoretical top limit – anything above 3 means regression (as in they’ve been “unlucky”) with it teir-ing up accordingly. Obviously, below 3 means they’ve been “lucky.”

Name Team Position TASER
Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR 6.000
Cooper, Amari OAK WR 5.400
Jones, Julio ATL WR 4.875
Lewis, Dion NE RB 4.400
Crabtree, Michael OAK WR 4.286
Cook, Jared STL TE 4.000
Bennett, Martellus CHI TE 4.000
Sanders, Emmanuel DEN WR 3.889
Ginn, Ted CAR WR 3.833
Sproles, Darren PHI RB 3.800
Tate, Golden DET WR 3.667
Edelman, Julian NE WR 3.636
Johnson, Calvin DET WR 3.625
Vereen, Shane NYG RB 3.600
Harvin, Percy BUF WR 3.600
Allen, Keenan SD WR 3.571
Beckham, Odell NYG WR 3.500
Washington, Nate HOU WR 3.429
Baldwin, Doug SEA WR 3.429
Heyward-Bey, Darrius PIT WR 3.400

 

Thomas indeed came up with the highest TASER, thus expecting regression to more touchdowns and redzone targets. While he received no RZ targets in Week 3, he did have two in Week 4. I would expect him to stay near the top of that list until either he regresses to closer to his average of 2.5 per game or we find out that the offense or Peyton has changed so much that they no longer feature Demaryius in this way. I’d bet on the former, but I don’t think the latter is impossible nor does it make TASER worthless.

Running it after Week 4, there’s definitely some interesting results. Most notably, Demaryius Thomas increases his TASER and could be up to double-digits in a couple weeks if we don’t see the regression we expect. He’s currently on pace for a career high in targets – his 50 targets through 4 games puts him right at 200 for the year – but is on track for only 4 touchdowns, despite being in double-digits the last three years. You can see why TASER would scream regression.

Here’s the top 20 through Week 4, and at the bottom of this article, I’ll add the entire table of NFL players.

Name Team Position TASER
Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR 8.286
Cooper, Amari OAK WR 8.167
Allen, Keenan SD WR 6.111
Clay, Charles BUF TE 5.571
Lewis, Dion NE RB 5.400
Britt, Kenny STL WR 5.400
Beckham, Odell NYG WR 5.300
Brown, Antonio PIT WR 5.200
Matthews, Rishard MIA WR 5.143
Cooks, Brandin NO WR 5.000
Benjamin, Travis CLE WR 4.875
Tate, Golden DET WR 4.857
Colston, Marques NO WR 4.833
Crabtree, Michael OAK WR 4.800
Robinson, Allen JAC WR 4.800
Bennett, Martellus CHI TE 4.750
Sanders, Emmanuel DEN WR 4.636
Baldwin, Doug SEA WR 4.571
Jones, Julio ATL WR 4.533
Hurns, Allen JAC WR 4.444

 

Amari Cooper is an interesting case – we don’t have the data on him historically like we do with Demaryius, but his overall numbers, which are outstanding for a rookie, should put him at more than just two touchdowns through the first four games. I would lean that way just from knowing his skill set and watching him play in college, but there will be guys who are naturally higher or lower TASER guys throughout their careers, just like there are guys who always seem to have a lower or higher BABIP than we’d expect.

I’d expect TASER to have more weird stuff than BABIP just because football is naturally less predictive than baseball because of the differences in sample sizes. That’s why I think using the most frequent stat for receiving (targets) is the way to go in attempting to measure luck and regression.

I also think there might have to be some stuff added to account for completion percentage and average depth of target, as this would probably affect the data – not all receivers are the same, think Julio Jones and Julian Edelman. However, this is a start and something I think can be communal – let me know your thoughts and ideas. I’ve never really tried to invent a statistic before, so there might be some really obvious flaws that I’m missing because I’m too close to it at the moment. However, I do feel confident in the idea and that eventually we can craft this into something really useful as football catches up with the other major sports in terms of predictive analytics.

TASER data through Week 4: 

Name Team Position TASER
Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR 8.286
Cooper, Amari OAK WR 8.167
Allen, Keenan SD WR 6.111
Clay, Charles BUF TE 5.571
Lewis, Dion NE RB 5.400
Britt, Kenny STL WR 5.400
Beckham, Odell NYG WR 5.300
Brown, Antonio PIT WR 5.200
Matthews, Rishard MIA WR 5.143
Cooks, Brandin NO WR 5.000
Benjamin, Travis CLE WR 4.875
Tate, Golden DET WR 4.857
Colston, Marques NO WR 4.833
Crabtree, Michael OAK WR 4.800
Robinson, Allen JAC WR 4.800
Bennett, Martellus CHI TE 4.750
Sanders, Emmanuel DEN WR 4.636
Baldwin, Doug SEA WR 4.571
Jones, Julio ATL WR 4.533
Hurns, Allen JAC WR 4.444
Harvin, Percy BUF WR 4.375
Johnson, Calvin DET WR 4.231
Dorsett, Phillip IND WR 4.200
Dunbar, Lance DAL RB 4.143
Washington, Nate HOU WR 4.125
Evans, Mike TB WR 4.125
Brown, John ARI WR 4.111
Matthews, Jordan PHI WR 4.091
Hilton, T.Y. IND WR 4.091
Garcon, Pierre WAS WR 4.000
Ingram, Mark NO RB 4.000
Sproles, Darren PHI RB 4.000
Vereen, Shane NYG RB 4.000
Forsett, Justin BAL RB 4.000
Watson, Benjamin NO TE 4.000
Murray, Latavius OAK RB 4.000
Johnson, David ARI RB 4.000
Williams, Maxx BAL TE 4.000
Smith, Steve BAL WR 3.929
Edelman, Julian NE WR 3.923
Wallace, Mike MIN WR 3.875
Cunningham, Benny STL RB 3.833
Gabriel, Taylor CLE WR 3.833
Wilson, Marquess CHI WR 3.833
Moncrief, Donte IND WR 3.818
Hartline, Brian CLE WR 3.800
Maclin, Jeremy KC WR 3.750
Reed, Jordan WAS TE 3.727
Woodhead, Danny SD RB 3.714
Heyward-Bey, Darrius PIT WR 3.714
Cook, Jared STL TE 3.625
Freeman, Devonta ATL RB 3.625
Watkins, Sammy BUF WR 3.600
Miller, Lamar MIA RB 3.600
Yeldon, T.J. JAC RB 3.600
Lockett, Tyler SEA WR 3.600
Shorts, Cecil HOU WR 3.538
Ginn, Ted CAR WR 3.500
Agholor, Nelson PHI WR 3.500
Woods, Robert BUF WR 3.500
Johnson, Andre IND WR 3.429
Coleman, Brandon NO WR 3.429
Cooper, Riley PHI WR 3.400
Brown, Marlon BAL WR 3.333
Powell, Bilal NYJ RB 3.286
Murphy, Louis TB WR 3.286
Witten, Jason DAL TE 3.273
Kelce, Travis KC TE 3.273
Marshall, Brandon NYJ WR 3.250
Aiken, Kamar BAL WR 3.250
Randle, Rueben NYG WR 3.250
Crowder, Jamison WAS WR 3.250
Fleener, Coby IND TE 3.250
Ebron, Eric DET TE 3.222
Riddick, Theo DET RB 3.222
Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR 3.200
Johnson, Steve SD WR 3.200
Anderson, C.J. DEN RB 3.200
Kendricks, Lance STL TE 3.200
Hankerson, Leonard ATL WR 3.167
Wheaton, Markus PIT WR 3.167
White, Roddy ATL WR 3.167
Celek, Garrett SF TE 3.167
Enunwa, Quincy NYJ WR 3.167
Beasley, Cole DAL WR 3.111
Snead, Willie NO WR 3.111
Charles, Jamaal KC RB 3.091
Hopkins, DeAndre HOU WR 3.087
Ertz, Zach PHI TE 3.000
Hawkins, Andrew CLE WR 3.000
Owusu, Chris NYJ WR 3.000
Bernard, Giovani CIN RB 3.000
Polk, Chris HOU RB 3.000
Sims, Charles TB RB 3.000
Tamme, Jacob ATL TE 3.000
Jennings, Greg MIA WR 3.000
Robinson, Khiry NO RB 3.000
Mathews, Ryan PHI RB 3.000
Gore, Frank IND RB 3.000
Spiller, C.J. NO RB 3.000
Landry, Jarvis MIA WR 2.944
Green, A.J. CIN WR 2.938
Royal, Eddie CHI WR 2.909
Grant, Ryan WAS WR 2.889
Douglas, Harry TEN WR 2.875
Floyd, Michael ARI WR 2.875
Floyd, Malcom SD WR 2.857
Cameron, Jordan MIA TE 2.833
Austin, Miles PHI WR 2.833
Wright, Kendall TEN WR 2.800
Barnidge, Gary CLE TE 2.800
Jennings, Rashad NYG RB 2.800
Walters, Bryan JAC WR 2.800
Kearse, Jermaine SEA WR 2.778
Stills, Kenny MIA WR 2.750
Adams, Davante GB WR 2.714
Moore, Lance DET WR 2.714
Funchess, Devin CAR WR 2.714
Mumphery, Keith HOU WR 2.714
Lewis, Marcedes JAC TE 2.714
Austin, Tavon STL WR 2.700
Daniels, Owen DEN TE 2.700
Greene, Rashad JAC WR 2.667
Brown, Corey CAR WR 2.667
Peterson, Adrian MIN RB 2.667
Abdullah, Ameer DET RB 2.625
Randle, Joseph DAL RB 2.600
Boldin, Anquan SF WR 2.583
Graham, Jimmy SEA TE 2.583
Davis, Vernon SF TE 2.571
Grimes, Jonathan HOU RB 2.571
McCoy, LeSean BUF RB 2.571
Bailey, Stedman STL WR 2.571
Walker, Delanie TEN TE 2.571
Jackson, Vincent TB WR 2.556
Rudolph, Kyle MIN TE 2.545
Donnell, Larry NYG TE 2.545
Williams, Terrance DAL WR 2.533
Jones, James GB WR 2.533
Forte, Matt CHI RB 2.500
Green, Ladarius SD TE 2.500
Rodgers, Richard GB TE 2.500
Wright, Jarius MIN WR 2.500
Patton, Quinton SF WR 2.500
Jones, Marvin CIN WR 2.455
Cobb, Randall GB WR 2.450
Gillmore, Crockett BAL TE 2.444
Smith, Torrey SF WR 2.444
Lee, Marqise JAC WR 2.400
McCluster, Dexter TEN RB 2.400
Gordon, Melvin SD RB 2.400
Starks, James GB RB 2.400
Thompson, Chris WAS RB 2.400
Gronkowski, Rob NE TE 2.375
Eifert, Tyler CIN TE 2.357
Olsen, Greg CAR TE 2.350
Juszczyk, Kyle BAL FB 2.333
Montgomery, Ty GB WR 2.333
Rivera, Mychal OAK TE 2.286
Hogan, Chris BUF WR 2.286
Dobson, Aaron NE WR 2.250
Graham, Garrett HOU TE 2.250
Williams, DeAngelo PIT RB 2.200
Bell, Joique DET RB 2.200
Mason, Tre STL RB 2.200
Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB 2.200
Meredith, Cameron CHI WR 2.200
Miller, Zach CHI TE 2.200
Wilson, Albert KC WR 2.200
Hyde, Carlos SF RB 2.167
Willson, Luke SEA TE 2.167
Martin, Doug TB RB 2.167
Williams, Karlos BUF RB 2.167
Bellamy, Josh CHI WR 2.167
Decker, Eric NYJ WR 2.154
Johnson, Charles MIN WR 2.143
Fells, Darren ARI TE 2.143
Fells, Daniel NYG TE 2.143
Hill, Josh NO TE 2.143
Jackson, Fred SEA RB 2.143
Parker, Preston NYG WR 2.125
Lynch, Marshawn SEA RB 2.125
Amendola, Danny NE WR 2.125
Seferian-Jenkins, Austin TB TE 2.111
Norwood, Jordan DEN WR 2.111
Sanu, Mohamed CIN WR 2.091
Murray, DeMarco PHI RB 2.000
Huff, Josh PHI WR 2.000
Reece, Marcel OAK FB 2.000
Thomas, DeAnthony KC WR 2.000
Robinson, Josh IND RB 2.000
Lacy, Eddie GB RB 2.000
Crowell, Isaiah CLE RB 2.000
Dickson, Ed CAR TE 2.000
Johnson, Chris ARI RB 2.000
Pierce, Bernard JAC RB 2.000
Whittaker, Fozzy CAR RB 2.000
Brown, Jaron ARI WR 1.857
Roberts, Andre WAS WR 1.857
Gresham, Jermaine ARI TE 1.857
Coffman, Chase TEN TE 1.833
Jeffery, Alshon CHI WR 1.800
Griffin, Ryan HOU TE 1.800
Nelson, J.J. ARI WR 1.800
Burkhead, Rex CIN RB 1.800
OShaughnessy, James KC TE 1.800
Harbor, Clay JAC TE 1.800
Smith, Lee OAK TE 1.800
Fasano, Anthony TEN TE 1.778
Miller, Heath PIT TE 1.750
Roberts, Seth OAK WR 1.750
Hunter, Justin TEN WR 1.714
Taliaferro, Lorenzo BAL RB 1.714
Holmes, Andre OAK WR 1.714
Williams, Damien MIA RB 1.667
Walford, Clive OAK TE 1.667
Matthews, Chris SEA WR 1.667
Morris, Alfred WAS RB 1.667
Allen, Dwayne IND TE 1.625
Cotchery, Jerricho CAR WR 1.625
Tolbert, Mike CAR FB 1.625
Blue, Alfred HOU RB 1.600
Bolden, Brandon NE RB 1.600
Cunningham, Jerome NYG TE 1.600
Dray, Jim CLE TE 1.600
Ellison, Rhett MIN TE 1.600
Humphries, Adam TB WR 1.600
Johnson, Malcolm CLE FB 1.600
Jones, Matt WAS RB 1.600
McFadden, Darren DAL RB 1.600
Olawale, Jamize OAK RB 1.600
McKinnon, Jerick MIN RB 1.600
Street, Devin DAL WR 1.600
Asiata, Matt MIN RB 1.600
DiMarco, Patrick ATL FB 1.600
Hillman, Ronnie DEN RB 1.600
Rodgers, Jacquizz CHI RB 1.600
Stevens, Craig TEN TE 1.600
Ivory, Chris NYJ RB 1.571
Campanaro, Michael BAL WR 1.571
Fiedorowicz, C.J. HOU TE 1.571
Sankey, Bishop TEN RB 1.556
Bryant, Dez DAL WR 1.500
Davis, Mike SF RB 1.500
Bell, Blake SF TE 1.500
Caldwell, Andre DEN WR 1.500
McDonald, Vance SF TE 1.500
Toilolo, Levine ATL TE 1.500
Waller, Darren BAL WR 1.500
Williams, Nick ATL WR 1.500
Parker, DeVante MIA WR 1.444
Carrier, Derek WAS TE 1.429
Davis, Knile KC RB 1.400
Ellington, Bruce SF WR 1.400
Jackson, DeSean WAS WR 1.400
Jones, Taiwan OAK RB 1.400
Robinson, Denard JAC RB 1.400
White, DeAndrew SF WR 1.400
Bowe, Dwayne CLE WR 1.400
Oliver, Branden SD RB 1.400
Patterson, Cordarrelle MIN WR 1.400
Shepard, Russell TB WR 1.400
Sherman, Anthony KC FB 1.400
Varga, Tyler IND FB 1.400
Ward, Terron ATL RB 1.400
Green, Virgil DEN TE 1.375
Escobar, Gavin DAL TE 1.333
Coleman, Tevin ATL RB 1.333
Ellington, Andre ARI RB 1.333
Stoneburner, Jake MIA TE 1.333
Grant, Corey JAC RB 1.333
Housler, Rob CLE TE 1.333
Johnson, Austin NO FB 1.286
Bush, Reggie SF RB 1.286
Celek, Brent PHI TE 1.286
Chandler, Scott NE TE 1.273
Alualu, Tyson JAC DT 1.200
Cadet, Travaris NE RB 1.200
Coleman, Derrick SEA FB 1.200
Davis, Geremy NYG WR 1.200
Davis, Kellen NYJ TE 1.200
Felton, Jerome BUF RB 1.200
Fisher, Jake CIN OT 1.200
Fowler, Jalston TEN FB 1.200
Hayne, Jarryd SF RB 1.200
Hill, Jeremy CIN RB 1.200
Jacobs, Nic JAC TE 1.200
Mulligan, Matthew BUF TE 1.200
Nix, Roosevelt PIT RB 1.200
Pettigrew, Brandon DET TE 1.200
Sims, Dion MIA TE 1.200
Swaim, Geoff DAL TE 1.200
Young, Darrel WAS FB 1.200
Green-Beckham, Dorial TEN WR 1.182
Allen, Javorius BAL RB 1.167
Rainey, Bobby TB RB 1.167
Butler, Brice DAL WR 1.143
Draughn, Shaun CLE RB 1.143
Hewitt, Ryan CIN TE 1.000
Miller, Bruce SF FB 1.000
Reitz, Joe IND G 1.000
Streater, Rod OAK WR 1.000