Amari Cooper is about as polished a wide receiver as you’ll see from a rookie. I’m sure you’ve seen the Vines of his footwork and watch him run routes with the exact precision that made him a first-round pick in the 2015 NFL Draft. And he’s produced so far in his first season, developing a nice chemistry with young quarterback Derek Carr and totaled 38-565-3 on the year, good for a 87-1291-7 pace. Not shabby.
However, ever since I have been compiling data and putting out my TASER metric, Cooper has been up at the top of the list. Read a more detailed explanation here, but TASER essentially just measures what a receiver’s ratio of total targets and touchdowns to their red zone targets and touchdowns should be, and where receivers actually are during the season. If a player has a high TASER, and thus abnormal ratio, we would expect regression and that player to get more targets in the red zone.
Last night when I was compiling data for TASER to update it, I figured Amari Cooper would still be one of the higher players. However, I was not expecting him to be clearly number-one on the list, with an 11.833 TASER that is the highest we’ve seen so far this year. So what gives? What’s up with Cooper’s great season and being an integral part of the offense except in the red zone?
Here’s the breakdown of passing target distribution in the red zone for the Raiders this year, courtesy of NFLsavant.com…
And rushing attempt distribution in the red zone…
They don’t have a crazy run-pass ratio in the red zone – in fact, they’ve actually passed the ball more than they’ve run it in that area, 28 to 24 on the season, respectively. Sure, RB Latavius Murray has gotten a huge chunk of those plays, but those are all out of the backfield. Murray hasn’t recorded a single red zone passing target on the year, and is in general one of the least pass-catchy backs in the entire league. Cooper’s competition isn’t the run game, it’s his fellow receivers.
Could the Raiders be using him as a decoy or perhaps has Cooper just been blanketed by coverage once the Raiders have gotten into the end zone? Of course that’s possible, but then we’d expect similar players – or even just one or two – to have continually high TASERs as well. Sure, you’ll have your monsters like Dez Bryant who can beat really any coverage in the red zone and get open or make a play, but it’s not like Cooper is the only player who is in his situation.
Unfortunately, I don’t really know the answer to why Cooper’s red zone statistics are so sparse. I would venture to guess that it’s probably a result of small sample size – really everything in the NFL is very small sample size-y – and that he’ll eventually get the targets he deserves in that area. He’s one of Carr’s favorite targets everywhere else, and more importantly, Carr has shown us that he’s not a QB that is risk-averse. I don’t think he would shy away from Cooper even if he was covered in the end zone – he just doesn’t do that anywhere else.
So my best guess is that this won’t last. Unfortunately, that doesn’t mean that it will end in a big way this coming week, although it very well could. However, I would bet that at some point these numbers will turn around. For some players, I would be okay with continuously high TASER marks; however, Cooper just isn’t that type of receiver. There isn’t a great reason why he’s gotten so few red zone looks, and I believe there’s a smoke/fire situation happening here. Cooper will regress to a normal ratio at some point, be it this week or later.
