The NHL Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a four-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Skaters
Studs
Today is expected to be a lower-scoring night – with no team implied for more than 3.0 goals – and there’s not a ton to pay all the way up for:
Center
- John Tavares @ Florida: DraftKings – $7,700, FanDuel – $8,300
- Patrice Bergeron @ Nashville: DraftKings – $6,900, FanDuel – $7,000
- Sean Monahan vs. Philadelphia: DraftKings – $6,800, FanDuel – $7,500
Winger
- Alex Ovechkin vs. San Jose: DraftKings – $7,500, FanDuel – $8,600
- Johnny Gaudreau vs. Philadelphia: DraftKings – $7,400, FanDuel – $7,800
- Filip Forsberg vs. Boston: DraftKings – $7,100, FanDuel – $8,000
Defense
- Roman Josi vs. Boston: DraftKings – $6,700, FanDuel – $5,900
- Brent Burns @ Washington: DraftKings – $6,600, FanDuel – $7,000
Leading the slate with 10 DraftKings Pro Trends, Ovechkin has always been a high-volume shooter – averaging 4.93 shots per game in his 12-year career – and he may have the most favorable peripheral stats for both ceiling and floor:
Of the studs, Ovi leads the slate in shots, power-play shots, and is tied with both Burns and Bergeron in shots + blocks over the past month. Did I mention Ovechkin has six goals over his past five games? But Ovi could carry even more upside today against a Sharks team with the second-highest Corsi-Against over the past month. The most noticeable wrinkle could be that 44.85 percent of Ovechkin’s goals have come on the man advantage over the past three seasons, and the Sharks have the second-best penalty kill percentage in the league at 87.7 percent.
For those fading Ovi, paying up for Calgary skaters Monahan and Gaudreau will be a popular route in both cash games and tournaments. The Flames have the slate’s highest implied total of 3.0 goals and face a Flyers team that has allowed the most fantasy points and second-most goals over the past month. Philadelphia ranks in the bottom-four in penalty kill percentage and both Monahan and Gaudreau are in the 98th percentile or higher in points on the man advantage over the past month. Correlating your lineups through stacking is almost always important in DFS hockey, but it’s crucial on a short slate. They aren’t cheap, but their upside could be warranted, as Monahan and Gaudreau boast an impressive 0.45 correlation coefficient in Models.
By using our Bargain Rating metric, we can gain a huge edge in targeting pricing discrepancies between the two sites. Today offers more than a few chances to leverage that knowledge into profitability. Let’s start with value.
Values
Matt Niskanen (DraftKings – $3,100, FanDuel – $4,100): He ranks in the 92nd percentile in shots + blocks and his price has actually dipped by $800 on DraftKings over the past month. Skating on the Capitals’ second power-play unit (PP2), he may not offer cheap exposure or correlation to Ovechkin, but he’s firmly in punt consideration on a Washington team implied for the second-most goals today. His 97 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings leads all defensemen.
Aaron Ekblad (DraftKings – $4,200, FanDuel – $4,400): Ekblad ranks the 97th percentile of shots + blocks over the past month, seventh-highest of any player in the slate. He’s egregiously underpriced relative to his peripheral stats and role on the Panthers’ second power-play unit.
One-Timers
Nick Leddy (DraftKings – $6,100, FanDuel – $5,600): With a 94 percent FanDuel Bargain Rating, Leddy is far too cheap for a player who ranks in the 97th percentile in shots + blocks. More importantly, he gives you exposure to Tavares on the Islanders PP1 at a discount. The Islanders own the highest Corsi-For expectation on the slate against a Panthers team allowing the second-most shots in the league.
Evgeny Kuznetsov (DraftKings – $5,900, FanDuel – $6,900): Kuznetsov ranks the 87th and 95th percentile in shots and power play shots over the past month, respectively. He’s probably priced out for cash games, but Kuznetsov is an intriguing leverage play off of Ovechkin’s elevated ownership in tournaments.
Notable Stacks
One of our highest-rated four-man DraftKings stacks currently belongs to the second power-play unit of Calgary Flames:
The Flames’ implied total of 3.0 goals leads the slate, so from a game-theory perspective, pivoting to the Calgary PP2 makes a ton of sense in tournaments. They arguably carry similar upside, as well. At a much cheaper price, Hamilton and Backlund are very comparable to Monahan and Gaudreau from a peripheral stats perspective:
With the highest goal expectation on the slate, the New York Islanders rate as one of our highest four-man stacks on FanDuel.
The Islanders lead all teams playing Monday in goals for per game (3.83) and total fantasy points over the past month. Leddy’s shots have spiked from 1.82 per game over the past year to 2.83 over the past month and he leads the team in TOI over that same period.
Tavares is expensive relative to his middling peripheral stats in the 78th percentile in shots + blocks, but the upside he possesses on the score sheet (95th percentile in points) is almost always worth exposure in tournaments. He could easily break the slate wide open by exposing the Panthers, who have the second-lowest penalty kill percentage in the NHL this year.
A solid pivot off of the Islanders PP1 could be Johnny Boychuk (DraftKings – $4,700, FanDuel – $4,300), who doesn’t get extensive power play time, but his 5.17 shots + blocks over the past month leads the slate by a large margin.
Goalies
Wins are weighted significantly in both DraftKings & FanDuel scoring, which is why ownership tends to mirror Vegas moneylines:
- Calgary -138 vs. Philadelphia
- NY Islanders -120 @ Florida
- Washington -117 vs. San Jose
If you’re looking to drill deeper into favorable possibilities, it could be wise to check out our new save prediction metric. It takes into account a multitude of things, such as: the opposing team’s average shots; the team’s average shots allowed; and the player’s goals against average. Here are today’s top-three options, all of whom have already been confirmed or are expected as starters:
- Jaroslav Halak, NY Islanders @ Florida (DraftKings – $7,500, FanDuel – $7,400): 33.4 saves
- Roberto Luongo, Florida vs. NY Islanders (DraftKings – $7,200, FanDuel – $7,700): 32.6 saves
- Pekka Rinne, Nashville vs. Boston (DraftKings – $8,000, FanDuel – $8,900): 31.52 saves
Halak will start for the Islanders, and as the second-largest moneyline favorite, he could provide a ton of value leading the slate in save prediction. The Islanders are top-10 in shots against this year and have the largest Corsi-Against on the slate. Florida’s Corsi-For expectation is fourth-highest, but they have the second-lowest goal expectation on the slate which should give Halak a nice floor in regards to saves.
Paying down at goaltender is usually optimal, but Rinne is in an awesome spot today despite being one of the most expensive options on both platforms. He’s a home favorite facing a Boston team with the highest Corsi-For expectation on the slate, while Nashville owns the second-highest Corsi-Against over the past month.
Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide updates regarding projected lines and starting goaltenders. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our Team Lines page.
