This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze five key NHL players in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Today we have a six-game slate that starts at 7:00 pm ET.
Auston Matthews: Center, Maple Leafs ($8,000 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel)
Toronto leads the slate with a massive implied Vegas total of 4.0 goals and is the second-heaviest favorite with a -205 moneyline, and the Leafs are hosting a Golden Knights team with the second-highest Corsi-against expectation. Currently a game-time decision, Matthews could have reduced ownership relative to his team’s favorable expectation. Placing in the 97th percentile, Matthews trails only Patrice Bergeron in shots+blocks over the past month, but Matthews could have even more upside, as he’s in the 99th percentile of goals per game over that same time period.
Note: William Nylander is expected to center the Maple Leafs top line if Matthews is unable to play, but Nazem Kadri could also be a strong pivot in this game on the first power play unit.
Alex Ovechkin: Winger, Capitals ($8,100 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel)
Ovechkin leads the slate with 10 Pro Trends and has always been a high-volume shooter, averaging 4.93 shots per game in his 12-year career, but goal-scoring regression was imminent after a hot start (even for a seven-time 50-goal scorer). He scored an absurd seven goals in fewer than five full regulation periods to start the year but has just one goal over his last five games. This could be an opportunity for Ovi to break out against a Coyotes team with the second-most goals allowed and third-worst penalty kill percentage. Ovechkin has scored 44.85 percent of his goals on the man advantage over the past three seasons and is in the 99th percentile in power play shots per game over the past month. The Capitals’ implied total of 3.5 goals trails only that of the Maple Leafs.
Christian Dvorak: Center, Coyotes ($3,700 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel)
Finding value will be important tonight if you decide to jam in a high-priced forward, such as Matthews, Ovechkin, Bergeron, or even Tyler Seguin. Even with the lowest implied total on the slate, Dvorak makes a ton of sense as his DraftKings price of $3,700 doesn’t reflect his recent shooting spike. Dvorak has registered three shots on goal in five of his last six games, and he blocks shots at a high enough rate to fall in the 86th percentile in shots+blocks per game over the past month. Washington has surrendered the 10th-most goals this year and fourth-most power play opportunities and owns the fifth-worst penalty kill percentage.
Michael Del Zotto: Defense, Canucks ($4,300 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel)
Del Zotto is a cheap path to elite peripheral stats, ranking in the 97th percentile of shots+blocks per game over the past month. One of the top defensemen in our Models, Del Zotto faces a Detroit team allowing the fifth-most power play opportunities and shots per game. Power play defensemen at comparable salaries with similar shots+blocks totals have historically provided a +2.13 FanDuel Plus/Minus and a 50.8 percent Consistency Rating.
Henrik Lundqvist: Goalie, Rangers ($7,600 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel)
At goalie, wins are heavily weighted in both DraftKings & FanDuel scoring, so ownership will likely skew heavily toward Washington and Toronto. However, both Braden Holtby and Frederik Andersen are expensive, and paying down at a position with a ton of variance is a viable strategy, especially if you can secure a strong peripheral stat floor. At $7,600 on DraftKings and leading the slate with his 33.32 save prediction, Lundqvist could be a sneaky pivot today as a slight +100 moneyline dog. Columbus owns the highest Corsi-for expectation tonight, so the opportunity for saves should be there for Lundqvist, and if he gets the win you could be in a great spot if the chalk underperforms.
Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide updates regarding projected lines and starting goaltenders. Stay ahead of your competition with our Team Lines page.
