March can be an exciting time for football fans. There’s the combine, free agency and enough draft speculation to make the average NFL junkie forget there’s no actual football being played.
And this year, we have the Alliance of American Football added into the mix.
We’re on to Week 7 of the new league, and business is booming. We have eight competitive teams thanks to some recent switches under center, and only the one-loss Orlando Apollos seem to have any sort of significant edge on the competition.
What follows is an in-depth look at all four of this weekend’s games, including the betting market, Week 6 takeaways, injuries, key matchups, daily fantasy edges and betting picks.
And if that’s not enough, we have this lineup of comprehensive coverage:
- AAF Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 7
- Koerner’s AAF Power Ratings: Use My Projections to Find the Best Week 7 Bets
- Week 7 AAF DFS Breakdown: San Antonio is Full of Value
- Johnny Manziel Instantly Becomes AAF’s Best Quarterback
Let’s dig in.
Betting Odds: Orlando Apollos at Atlanta Legends
- Spread: Orlando -8.5
- Over/Under: 42
- Time: 3 p.m. ET on Saturday
- TV: B/R Live
Betting market: The line and total have held steady since opening.
Week 6 Takeaways
Orlando’s 22-17 Loss to Arizona
Top AAF quarterback Garrett Gilbert had his least efficient game of the season on his way to completing just 23-of-48 (48%) passes for 268 yards (5.6 yards per attempt) with two touchdowns and an interception.
Still, the Apollos had solid performances from their solidified top-two receivers Charles Johnson and Jalin Marshall, and from their two-headed backfield featuring D’Ernest Johnson and De’Veon Smith. The Apollos were in position to win on the game’s final play — with just four seconds to play on Arizona’s 8-yard line — but they lost on a false start and 10 second run-off.
Atlanta’s 37-6 Loss to San Antonio
Aaron Murray took a step back in Week 6 by converting his 41 pass attempts into 215 yards (5.2 Y/A) with one touchdown and three interceptions. He’s tentatively locked in as the Legends’ starting quarterback, though backup Peter Pujals did was brought in late into the blowout loss.
The backfield remains an ever-evolving timeshare featuring Brandon Radcliff, Tarean Folston and Denard Robinson, while Seantavius Jones and Keith Towbridge are tentatively established as the team’s top-two pass-game threats.
Which team is healthier? Orlando
The only Apollos players at risk of missing Saturday’s game are defensive ends Anthony Moten (lower leg), Josh Banks (shoulder) and Izaah Burks (shoulder) along with linebacker Earl Okine (back), backup wide receiver Ishmael Hyman (knee) and defensive back Deji Olatoye (lower leg). Still, all were at least limited in practice on Thursday and aren’t thought to be dealing with serious injuries.
The Legends are also fairly healthy, though neither offensive lineman Parker Collins (ankle) nor safety Tyson Granham (neck) managed to practice on Thursday. Wide receiver Ervin Phillips (groin) and running back Lawrence Pittman (ankle) are also banged up, but are tentatively expected to suit up.
The worst news for Atlanta: Starting left tackle Brandon Pertile was placed on the injured reserve list and is out indefinitely.
Key matchup: Orlando’s Offense vs. Atlanta’s Defense
This game is easily the week’s largest mismatch between an offense and defense.
- Atlanta (4.6 yards per carry allowed) joins Birmingham (4.65) and San Antonio (4.97) as the league’s three worst defenses in stopping opposing running backs.
- The Orlando running backs’ average of 5.45 yards per carry is easily the highest mark in the league ahead of Arizona (4.65).
- Pro Football Focus has given the Legends their worst team coverage grade paired with the fourth-best pass rush.
- The Apollos easily boast the No. 1 pass offense in yards per attempt (8.26) and have the league’s best wide receiver in Charles Johnson.
- Orlando also has the league’s best point differential at +67; Atlanta ranks dead last at -87.
Have fun, Steve Spurrier.
DFS edge: Orlando WRs
Continuing to target Charles Johnson makes sense as long as he’s getting a league-high 8.5 targets per game. Don’t forget about Jalin Marshall either, who has averaged 5.0 targets per game and played 89% of the offense’s snaps last week.
The Legends’ league-worst defense in yards allowed per pass attempt has just one cornerback (Dontalleo Brown, No. 11) inside of PFF’s top-25 highest-graded corners.
Bet to watch: Apollos -8.5
This line feels several points too low. The Apollos played their sloppiest football of the year in Week 6 and still were an ill-timed false start away from snatching a last-second victory.
Meanwhile, Atlanta has already lost by 31, 16, 12 and 34. The latter came against the Apollos in Week 1, and I expect the better team to once again comfortably emerge victorious.
Betting Odds: Salt Lake Stallions at San Antonio Commanders
- Spread: San Antonio -5.5
- Over/Under: 40.5
- Time: 8 p.m. ET on Saturday
- TV: NFL Network
Betting market: The total hasn’t moved since open, though there’s been some early support for the Commanders, who opened as 5-point favorites.
Week 6 Takeaways
Salt Lake’s 22-9 Win Over Memphis
Josh Woodrum had one of his best games yet, completing 24-of-37 (65%) passes for 243 yards (6.6 Y/A) with two touchdowns and an interception. He appears to be back to full health after dealing with an early-season hamstring injury and has grown more comfortable throwing downfield.
The run game has heavily featured Joel Bouagnon since Branden Oliver was lost for the season, and Terron Ward is fighting for Terrell Newby’s backup spot after the latter back lost a fumble in Week 6. The passing game continues to feature De’Mornay Pierson-El along with Adonis Jennings, Anthony Denham and Nick Truesdell.
San Antonio’s 37-6 Win Over Atlanta
The Commanders are rolling and finished their four-game road trip with a decisive victory over Aaron Murray and Co. They’ve won three straight games thanks in large part to recent excellence from Logan Woodside, who completed 17-of-23 (74%) for 164 yards (7.1 Y/A) with two touchdowns and zero interceptions.
Kenneth Farrow and Trey Williams have formed an efficient running back combo that perfectly complements one of the league’s deepest wide receiver rooms featuring Mekale McKay, Greg Ward Jr., De’Marcus Ayers and Alonzo Moore.
Which team is healthier? Salt Lake
The Stallions offense has kept itself pretty much fully healthy since losing Oliver indefinitely, while the defense is only dealing with injuries to defensive back Cody Brown (knee), linebacker Gionni Paul (ankle) and defensive lineman Mike Purcell (wrist) and game-changer Karter Schult (rib). Only Paul didn’t managed to at least get in a limited practice on Thursday.
The Commanders, meanwhile, are fairly banged up on both sides of the ball.
Starting receivers De’Marcus Ayers (lower leg) and Mekale McKay (ankle) are banged up while tight end Cole Hunt (lower leg) and offensive lineman Mason Gentry (lower back) are far from 100%. Defensive lineman Ra’Zahn Howard (knee) and cornerback Zack Sanchez (hamstring) appear to be the team’s defenders most at risk of missing Saturday’s game.
Key matchup: Josh Woodrum vs. San Antonio’s Pass Rush
The Commanders boast Pro Football Focus’ second-best pass rush thanks to a deep pool of defensive tackles and edge defenders. San Antonio boasts six combined edge defenders and interior defenders graded among PFF’s top-25 defensive linemen.
The defense’s problem has been its inability to stop opposing offenses if it can’t get to the quarterback and create negative and/or splash plays. The Commanders have the worst pass and rush defense in terms of yards per attempt and carry allowed.
Woodrum has the league’s quickest release and is well-equipped to fend off the Commanders’ fearsome pass rush with quick hitting plays to stud slot receiver De’Mornay Pierson-El.
Woodrum’s ability to take care of the ball will be vital to the Stallions’ chances of pulling the upset.
DFS edge: Salt Lake WRs
There’s more value in the Salt Lake offense in addition to Pierson-El, who is too underpriced as a featured No. 1 receiver.
Brian Tyms managed to play 70% of the offense’s snaps last week and offers a ton of salary relief when attempting to squeeze Trent Richardson and/or Charles Johnson into lineups.
Bet to watch: Salt Lake +5.5
The Commanders have been playing their best ball as of late, but the Stallions have at least managed to keep pretty much all of their games close this season win-or-lose and regardless of the opponent.
- Week 6: Salt Lake 22, Memphis 9
- Week 5: Salt Lake 25, San Diego 27
- Week 4: Salt Lake 11, Orlando 20
- Week 3: Salt Lake 23, Arizona 15
- Week 2: Salt Lake 9, Birmingham 12
- Week 1: Salt Lake 22, Arizona 38
Betting Odds: San Diego Fleet at Arizona Hotshots
- Spread: Arizona -3.5
- Over/Under: 40
- Time: 4 p.m. ET on Sunday
- TV: CBS Sports Network
Betting market: The Hotshots opened as 3.5-point favorites and have remained there. The over/under has moved a half point since opening at 39.5.
Week 6 Takeaways
San Diego’s 32-29 Loss to Birmingham
Mike Bercovici continued to be a roller coaster of emotions under center last week, completing 17-of-34 (50%) passes for 311 yards (9.1 Y/A) with three touchdowns and two interceptions. Things turned out the best for the offense when Bercovici targeted Dontez Ford, who converted his three receptions into 182 scoreless-yards before leaving the game early with an ankle injury.
Courtesy of @AAFFleet/Twitter. Pictured: San Diego QB Mike Bercovici
The Fleet continue to utilize a committee backfield with Terrell Watson leading the way on early downs and short yardage situations before ceding way to Ja’Quan Gardner and Bishop Sankey.
Arizona’s 22-17 Win Over Orlando
The Hotshots managed to prevent Steve Spurrier and Co. from sweeping the entire league — but it wasn’t easy.
Orlando finished with more first downs (27 vs. 23) and yards (369 vs. 341) while easily winning the penalty battle (7-for-79 vs. 12-for-142). The areas where the Hotshots did win were turnovers (0 vs. 2) and, most importantly, points.
John Wolford helped lead the Hotshots to success in both of those categories, completing 16-of-27 passes for 162 yards and a touchdown. Jhurell Pressley (13 carries), Tim Cook (11) and Justin Stockton (12) had double-digit carries, although Pressley continued to dominate snaps. The offense immediately welcomed back Richard Mullaney into starting 2-WR sets alongside star Rashad Ross.
Which team is healthier? Draw
The Fleet could be without their spark-plug receiver Dontez Ford, who was unable to practice Wednesday and remains in a walking boot. San Diego is otherwise believed to be approaching full health.
Arizona has a few more question marks to worry about, as studs Rashad Ross (shoulder) and running back Jhurell Pressley (wrist) were limited in practice to start the week. The good news is both have seemingly been playing through these injuries and are tentatively expected to suit up come game time.
Key matchup: Arizona’s Office vs. San Diego’s Front Seven
The Hotshots have mostly only been able to create big plays via downfield passes to Ross, although their offense has also managed to consistently move the ball on the ground. Their average of 4.65 yards per rush is the second-highest mark in the AAF.
The problem is that the Hotshots are facing arguably the league’s stiffest rush defense. San Diego (3.46) joins Salt Lake (3.08) as the only defenses that have held opposing running backs to fewer than 3.5 yards per carry this season.
Additionally, Damontre Moore and Co. have earned the Fleet Pro Football Focus’ No. 1 pass-rush grade. The Hotshots boast PFF’s No. 3 and No. 6 ranked offensive line in pass blocking and run blocking, respectively.
Failure to contain what is likely the league’s best front seven won’t help Wolford keep the offense on the field, which could be a death sentence for the Hotshots considering their preference to move at a blistering pace.
DFS edge: Jhurell Pressley is still too cheap
Pressley was our highlighted option in DFS last week thanks to his high snap share and consistent workload. He boasted the second-highest opportunity per dollar score among all running backs and responded with the position’s second-highest scoring performance.
Fast forward to this week and … Pressley’s price tag has only increased by $100! He has the best opportunity per dollar score among all backs in Week 7.
Courtesy of @AAFHotshots/Twitter. Pictured: Arizona RB Jhurell Pressley
Only T-Rich (20.2), Zac Stacy (16.8), Kenneth Farrow (16.8) and Pressley (15.2) have managed to receive at least 15 combined carries and targets per game.
Bet to watch: San Diego +3.5
The Mike Bercovici experience has certainly had its ups and downs, but he’s at least managed to keep the Fleet in the game thanks to his big-play ability and willingness to take chances downfield.
The Fleet seem to have the advantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball. And the Hotshots’ win over Orland wasn’t a convincing enough performance for me to like their chances against Mike Martz and Co.
Betting Odds: Birmingham Iron at Memphis Express
- Spread: Iron -3
- Over/Under: 36.5
- Time: 8 p.m. ET on Sunday
- TV: NFL Network
Betting market: The Iron opened as 2.5-point favorites but have since increased to -3. The over/under has dropped to 36.5 points after opening at 37.
Week 6 Takeaways
Birmingham’s 32-29 Win Over San Diego
Keith Price was forced to exit last week’s game due to an injury, and Luis Perez never looked back. Perez completed 27-of-49 (55%) passes for 359 yards (7.3 Y/A) along with three touchdowns and two interceptions after failing to record a single score through the air in Weeks 1-5 combined.
Here’s what Iron head coach Tim Lewissaid after the game: “We did a really nice job on our vertical passing game … We’ve been talking about getting some explosive plays and finally we got some of them.”
It would be a surprise if Perez didn’t get the start on Sunday, but don’t expect his new-found leash to be that long.
The backfield remains in sole possession of Trent Richardson, while L’Damian Washington controlled the air with a massive performance (4 receptions-128 yards-2 TD). Still, Washington (10 targets), Quinton Patton (15) and T-Rich (12) were plenty involved in the pass game.
Memphis’ 22-9 Loss to Salt Lake
The Express signed the league’s best new quarterback Johnny Manziel last weekend after placing Zach Mettenberger on IR, but don’t expect the artist formerly known as Johnny Football to see too much of the field on Sunday.
Here’s what head coach Mike Singletary said: “We just have to see how it goes, but Brandon Silvers is definitely the starting quarterback … We’ll see how Johnny progresses, but we’re very confident in Brandon.”
It’s tough to blame Singletary, as Silvers played fairly well in relief last week by completing 23-of-37 (62%) passes for 242 yards (6.5 Y/A) with a touchdown and zero interceptions.
Zac Stacy continued to lead the backfield, also joining Reece Horn (10), Daniel Williams (11) and Alton Howard (5) as the only receivers with more than five targets with six of his own.
Which team is healthier? Birmingham
The Iron aren’t too healthy, as backup running back Brandon Ross (groin) and receiver Tobias Palmer (illness) each failed to practice Thursday. The good news is that Week 1 starting receiver Amba Etta-Tawo isn’t listed on the injury report and is tentatively expected to return this week.
Birmingham also has a few banged up offensive linemen and defensive backs, but they’re tentatively expected to suit up after getting in limited practices on Thursday.
Meanwhile, Memphis is reeling after losing Mettenberger for the foreseeable future.
The Express also have a multitude of players who failed to suit up for practice on Thursday, including starting receivers Alton Howard (dental) and Reece Horn (lower leg) along with center Demetrius Rhaney (shoulder), defensive tackle Montori Hughes (knee) and cornerback Justin Martin (head). Wide receiver Dontez Byrd (ankle) also isn’t exactly 100% after practicing in a limited fashion all week.
Key matchup: Birmingham’s Run Offense vs. Memphis’ Front Seven
The Iron boast the league’s worst rushing attack in terms of yards per carry (2.91), but are set up reasonably well against a Memphis defense that has allowed 4.42 yards per rush — the fourth-highest mark in the league.
Perez has demonstrated the ability to make accurate throws downfield, but his limited mobility makes the Iron offense too predictable when their rushing attack can’t get started.
T-Rich’s ability to thrive as a receiver has been noteworthy …
… but his ability to consistently pick up yards has held back Birmingham from truly joining the league’s elite teams.
The Iron’s defense has routinely demonstrated the ability to put their team in a position to win, and even something close to resembling a competent rush offense would go a long ways toward helping their volatile situation under center.
DFS edge: Underpriced Birmingham WRs
It’s unclear how big of a role former starting receiver Amba Etta-Tawo will have in what could be his first game since Week 1. He wasn’t listed on the injury report to start the week and is this week’s equivalent to Week 6 Richard Mullaney: A potential starting receiver who is only min-priced because of a long layoff.
Quinton Patton is also much too cheap as the WR9 considering his 7.4 targets per game trail only Charles Johnson (8.5).
Even Tobias Palmer offers dark horse value assuming he suits up, as he’s just $3,500 a week after playing 76% of Birmingham’s offensive snaps.
Helping matters for everyone involved is a pristine matchup against a Memphis secondary that has allowed the second-most yards per attempt in the AAF.
Bet to watch: Birmingham -3
This line seems way too low against a team that just lost its starting quarterback and could be getting a public bump due to their decision to sign Johnny Football.
The Iron easily boast the better defense, while also possessing the ability to blow this game open if Perez and Co. can repeat their Week 6 performance.
