Drew Brees must really enjoy himself a nice bowl of jambalaya or red beans and rice on Saturday evenings. Or if we’re to believe all of these NyQuil ads, maybe he’s subject to getting sick when traveling more often than others? Or I suppose he might just miss hanging out with his family the day before the game?
If you didn’t quite follow all of the hyperbole above, Brees’ performances on the road over the past few years suggest that he far prefers playing at home in New Orleans over going out on the road on Sundays. Dating back to 2010, he has averaged 21.02 DraftKings (DK) points on the road vs a stellar 26.25 DK points while at home in the Superdome.
This past Sunday’s game was no exception, with Brees totaling a disappointing 228 passing yards and an interception on 44 passing attempts – good for a meager 8.10 DK points. Sunday’s loss also marked the first game all season that he has failed to throw a touchdown.
Despite what initially appeared to be a decent matchup for Brees on paper – we had him as the top-projected quarterback of the week – looking deeper may have allowed you to move off of him against the Texans.
As we can see above, over the past two seasons Brees has fared well in his matchups with an over/under of at least 50 points – which this game had – and against teams with a comparable Opponent Plus/Minus to that of the Texans. The splits between his home matchups versus his away games were quite revealing though.
While he has fared better over the past couple of years in these matchups than he has cumulatively over the previous five, the split is certainly something that we should take notice of. And keep in mind, these splits are only factoring in games with a high over/under (50 points or more). To examine Brees’ struggles a bit deeper, let’s look at his splits over all of his games the past two seasons, regardless of matchup and projected game total.
At an average of 20.68 DK points, Brees is barely meeting his value, as opposed to his matchups at home, where we see him crushing it. So what’s the underlying issue for him?
Does the Dome Really Matter that Much?
Despite the usual thought that playing on turf is a key to his success, Brees’ statistics don’t vary much on the road whether he’s playing indoors or outdoors. In fact, his splits between his road games and his away games are quite similar in general, with the lone exception being his ability to produce touchdowns at home.
Brees has averaged 324 passing yards and 2.87 passing touchdowns at home compared to 312 passing yards and 1.89 passing touchdowns on the road. He is turning the ball over at a higher rate on the road though – 1.16 interceptions per game compared to 0.93 interceptions at home. This combined with his defense’s lackluster play – they are allowing 25.5 points per game on the road versus 22 points per game at home – may be contributing to his performances away from New Orleans.
At home in the dome the defense has stepped up and helped the Saints to a far better record. The Saints have won 68.9% of their games at home since 2010 and only 52.2% on the road. For Brees, this is great news as his splits between victories and losses is almost as great as his home/away splits.
Brees has been able to play with a lead more often than not at home – his average starting drive at home is at the 28.2 yard line with a 2.2 point lead, as opposed to a 1.5 point deficit on the road – and use positive game script to work his short passing game.
While this isn’t exactly Earth-shattering news – quarterbacks winning games tend to be performing better than those on the losing ends (in general) – it certainly is useful for those attempting to peg the correct time to utilize Brees. At his price tag – he came into the week as the third-highest priced quarterback on DraftKings – there is not a lot of room for error and when he’s on the road, the margin appears to get even thinner.
Is He the Only One?
You might be asking yourself, “Why’s he picking on Brees so much, don’t all quarterbacks struggle on the road?” Well, mostly because Brees stunk it up this week and recency bias and all. But in fact, to a degree, you would be correct.
Looking at the group of quarterbacks often priced comparatively to Brees – Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck – you’ll find similar splits for two of the three high-priced signal-callers.
Andrew Luck has made a living out of garbage-time points, likely skewing his splits a bit. But the numbers from Brady and Rodgers are more in line with what we’ve seen Brees produce.
The discrepancies in splits between home and away for these “elite” quarterbacks lend credence to the idea of not locking in on a high-priced quarterback as a “safe” play from week-to-week. Recognizing that these splits exist for certain quarterbacks and not others will allow you to exploit these matchups when presented with them.
Keep in mind, the risk associated with some of these quarterbacks on the road should have you proceeding with caution when considering them for cash-game use. However, their talent and upside – combined with potentially deflated ownership if they have a tough road matchup – make for ideal GPP plays in these weeks.
Whether it’s a brat and a beer for Rodgers or a nice Po’Boy for Brees, it’s clear that certain quarterbacks just prefer home cooking a little more than others.
