A win against the Seattle Seahawks on Thursday Night Football is all that stands between the San Francisco 49ers and their 21st division title. San Francisco has won six straight coming into Week 15 and could assure themselves of a postseason berth for the third time in four years. Standing in their way is a desperate Seahawks squad, looking for just their second win since Week 9. The Seahawks are on the outside of the NFC playoff picture looking in and will be ready for this primetime showdown.
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As usual, we’ve used the ScoreAndOdds Parlay Simulator to develop a three-leg parlay expected to yield positive results.
49ers vs. Seahawks Same Game Parlay Picks
For those who aren’t familiar, ScoresAndOdds recently released a new tool to set up same-game parlays on various sportsbooks called Parlay IQ.
This simple-to-use tool quickly shows which bets are positive expected value (+EV) in any game based on their thousands of game simulations.
If you are building a same-game parlay — as you add bets to your slip — the Parlay IQ tool will update with other bet suggestions that are most likely to hit based on your selected bets.
Now, let’s get into what I am targeting tonight.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks Over 43.5
This year, scoring has come naturally for both NFC West teams. The Seahawks rank top-six with 26.3 points per game, jumping modestly over their past few games to 28.3. San Francisco is close behind, ranking eighth with 24.4. Similarly, they have increased their output over their past few games, improving to 27.0 points per game since Week 12. We’re expecting both trends to continue, resulting in a high-scoring Thursday nighter.
In Seattle’s case, increased scoring correlates with amplified production metrics. The Seahawks are averaging 365.7 yards per game over their three-game sample, modestly above their season-long average of 355.2. They are in an excellent position to extend that run against a Niners defense that has given up more than 300 yards in consecutive games for the first time all season and is traveling on short rest.
As efficient as they’ve been offensively, the Seahawks have been incapable of slowing down opponents. At 378.8 yards per game, they’ve given up the fifth-most yards this season. Worse, that number is climbing over the latter part of the season. Opponents are up to 407.7 yards per game over Seattle’s last three.
Even with Brock Purdy at the helm, the Niners’ offense has shown no signs of slowing down. A porous Seahawks defense will offer little resistance. With Seattle’s recent surge in production and scoring, expect this one to make its way over the 43.5-point total.
Kenneth Walker III Over 48.5 Rushing Yards
Seattle’s rushing attack hasn’t lived up to expectations recently. The Seahawks have been held to 65 rushing yards or fewer in three of their past four, with Kenneth Walker III being limited to 79 rushing yards over his last three appearances. Running the ball will be a priority against the Niners, and we’ve identified Walker as a progression candidate over his coming games.
Walker played just 14 snaps against the Rams in Week 13 before injuring his ankle. The ailment kept the rookie rusher out of last week’s contest against the Panthers, but Walker is off the injury report and ready to take to the field for this NFC West matchup.
Over his last three appearances, Walker’s yards per carry has plummeted. The former Michigan State Spartan is down to 2.9 yards per carry, a substantial deviation from his season average of 4.7. Worse, he’s fallen below 1.9 yards per rushing attempt in two of his last three. The Seahawks running back is below normal ranges and should progress toward his career average.
As good as the 49ers have been at stopping the run, they’ve been much less effective on the road. San Fran gives up 92.5 rushing yards per game as the visitors, compared to just 60.1 at home.
Seattle’s best shot at victory comes from maintaining possession and limiting the Niners’ offensive time on the field. That should result in a healthy dose of Walker in the running game, helping him go over his rushing prop.
Christian McCaffrey Over 78.5 Rushing Yards
San Francisco deserves a ton of credit for continuing to adapt on the fly. Injuries to Trey Lance and Jimmy Garropolo have resulted in Brock Purdy being thrown into the deep end. The Niners are 2-0 with Purdy under center, and Kyle Shanahan’s game planning has the NFC West leaders limiting the number of throws coming out of Purdy’s hand.
In Purdy’s first start last week, the 49ers called rushing plays on 61.0% of their snaps. Christian McCaffrey absorbed most of that workload, carrying the ball a team-high 14 times, tied for the third-most carries he’s had since joining the Niners. The former All-Pro also put up a season-best 8.5 yards per carry in the win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
McCaffrey could have an even easier time shredding Seattle’s defense. The Seahawks give up the second-most rushing yards per game, allowing opponents to walk all over them at 160.5 yards per game. Shamefully, that number has skyrocketed more recently. The Seahawks are declining any defensive responsibility in stopping the run, giving up an astounding 225.7 rushing yards per game over their previous three.
Based on TheScoreAndOdds projections, we’re anticipating a similar result against the Seahawks on Thursday night. Our algorithm shows a 63% chance McCaffrey sails over his 78.5 rushing yards prop. Considering San Francisco’s emphasis on the running game and Seattle’s ineffective rushing defense, we’re betting McCaffrey eclipses his total.
The screenshot above is the bet slip on ScoresAndOdds. The screenshot below is the bet slip on FanDuel, after clicking the “Place Bets” shortcut:
FanDuel Sportsbook is hanging an appetizing +535 on this prop, and that’s well above Scores and Odds calculated +270 price tag. That’s a tough edge to pass up.
Happy sweating, and good luck!
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