Finishing Week 4 of the NFL regular season is an NFC West division clash between the San Francisco 49ers and the Los Angeles Rams. A 49ers victory would even this entire division at 2-2 games apiece. The 49ers are favored by 1.5-points at home, with the total set at only 42.5 points.
Primetime games have gone under the point total in eight of the 12 games so far this season. However, with this low total, it may be time to start wondering if this is an overreaction from the previous games. Let’s dive in and find out.
Picking a parlay for tonight’s game is super easy with the ScoreAndOdds Parlay Simulator, which leads to plus-expected value wagers for this primetime showdown.
Get a $1000 No-Sweat Bet For MNF!
Cowboys vs. Giants Same Game Parlay Picks
For those who aren’t familiar, ScoresAndOdds recently released a new tool to set up same-game parlays on various sportsbooks called Parlay IQ.
This simple-to-use tool shows which bets are positive expected value (+EV) in any game based on their thousands of game simulations.
If you are building a same-game parlay, the Parlay IQ tool will calculate the expected win rate as you add more wagers to your bet slip. It then compares the projected odds to the actual odds on FanDuel, identifying how much value you’re getting on each wager.
Now, let’s get into what I am targeting tonight.
Deebo Samuel Over 56.5 Receiving Yards
The San Francisco 49ers’ do-it-all playmaker Deebo Samuel is in a great spot for this primetime game. After a bit of a slow start, Samuel led the 49ers with 78 receiving yards last game. Both his receiving and rushing props are grading out as great options tonight. Samuel leads the team in receptions and targets while ranking second in rushing attempts and yards.
Targeting Samuel’s receiving yards is the best option based on the Rams’ pass-funnel defense, which ranks 22nd in pass defense DVOA and 4th in rush defense DVOA per FootballOutsiders. Rams defensive back Jalen Ramsey will not be able to shadow Samuel because he lines up all over the field, including several snaps in the backfield.
Lastly, Samuel has dominated in this matchup over the past two seasons. Including the playoff game, Samuel has averaged 92.6 receiving yards per game paired with three touchdowns. He has gone well over this receiving prop line in five-straight games against the Rams. For fantasy players, the Rams have allowed the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. Take the over on Samuel’s receiving yards with confidence.
49ers and Rams Over 42.5 Points
Not only has Samuel played extremely well in this matchup, but so have the 49ers in general. They lost 20-17 in the NFC Championship game last season but have won their previous six matchups against the Rams. During that six-game win streak, the 49ers averaged 26.5 points per game while going over this points prop in five of those six games.
It may be a little surprising seeing the 49ers favored in this game, but on top of their excellent history against the Rams, they have won five-straight home games dating back to last season. Over that time, they have averaged 29.2 points per game. There are plenty of positive trends pointing us to this over from the 49ers’ side.
After a 31-point loss on opening night, the Rams have rebounded with back-to-back wins scoring 25.5 points per game in those two games. Even with a losing history against the 49ers, they still have averaged over 20 points per game in their last five meetings. Last season per Football Outsiders, the Rams ranked 11th in Pace and tied for seventh in total points with 27.1 points per game. The Rams know how to put points on the scoreboard.
Cooper Kupp Anytime Touchdown
Getting into the end zone has become second nature to Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp. He has scored at least one touchdown in nine-straight games and 12 of his last 13 games, including the playoffs. During those 13 games, Kupp has actually scored 16 touchdowns. He is also a major red zone threat.
Through the first three games of the season, Kupp has played every snap and leads the league with a 34.3% target share. Coming into Week 4, Kupp also led the league with 28 receptions and an 80% catch rate. He is option No. 1, 2, and 3 in this Matthew Stafford-led offense. Expect the Rams to continue scheming ways to get Kupp the football. Last game, Kupp even pulled a Deebo Samuel and had a 20-yard rushing touchdown.
The 49ers have a stellar defense, but that hasn’t slowed down Kupp in this matchup. Kupp averaged 127.3 receiving yards in three meetings last year while racking up 29 receptions and three touchdowns. He is a touchdown machine, so expect Kupp to find the end zone again tonight.
The screenshot above is the bet slip on ScoresAndOdds. The screenshot below is the bet slip on FanDuel, after clicking the “Place Bets” shortcut:
Export Bet Slip to FanDuel
Based on their simulations, the true odds on this parlay at +354, but FanDuel is offering +397. That’s a little value taking this three-prop parlay.
Happy sweating and good luck!
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE
NFL Player Props: D.J. Moore, Marcus Mariota Picks for Falcons-Panthers on Thursday Night Football
Thanksgiving NFL DFS Showdown: Lineup Optimizer Rules and My Favorite Angle in Patriots-Vikings
NFL DFS Week 6 DraftKings Main Slate Look Ahead: Early Values in Our Projections
NFL Fantasy Pick’ems for Week 8
