49ers vs. Eagles Odds, Picks and NFC Championship Prediction

49ers vs Eagles Odds

• 49ers +2.5
• Eagles -2.5
• Over/Under 46.5

On Sunday, the San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles will meet at Lincoln Financial Field with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. Entering play, San Francisco has won a league-best 12 consecutive games, and are averaging 32.6 points per game with Brock Purdy as the starter. Philadelphia, 15-3 in 18 games this season, is fresh off of a 38-7 victory over the New York Giants in the divisional round. Ahead of kickoff, oddsmakers have the Eagles priced as 2.5-point home favorites on the spread.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks ahead of kickoff. If you don’t have access to legal sports betting, use our PrizePicks referral code to pick player props for Jalen Hurts, George Kittle, and more!

San Francisco 49ers Preview

Not Purdy under pressure

Since Brock Purdy took over for the injured Jimmy Garoppolo in Week 13 against the Miami Dolphins, San Francisco is 9-0, including 8-0 in games that Purdy has started. In that span, the team has five double-digit victories and has only one game decided by fewer than seven points.

Still, there is reason to believe that the honeymoon for the 49ers and Purdy is in jeopardy this weekend. On Sunday, San Francisco will face a defense that is extremely similar to the Dallas Cowboys defense that they saw in the divisional round – only Philadelphia’s defense is slightly better at achieving desired outcomes.

During the regular season, the Eagles ranked second in the NFL in pressure rate, trailing only the Cowboys. Philadelphia was much better at finishing those plays, leading the league with a 12.6% sack-rate, which was 2.8% higher than any other team. The Eagles also finished better than the Cowboys in interception rate, ranking sixth compared to Dallas, which ranked ninth.

In the divisional round, Purdy was dynamic from a clean pocket, completing 15 of 17 pass attempts for 159 yards, but he struggled mightily when under pressure – completing only 4-of-12 pass attempts.

According to Warren Sharp, Philadelphia deployed the second-highest rate of quarters coverage this season and were fourth in EPA/play when using it. On 15 dropbacks against quarters this year, Purdy has completed only 5-of-15 pass attempts for 4.9 yards per attempt. Ten of those pass attempts were from last week’s victory against the Cowboys.

Simply, Purdy could be exposed to a few different looks this weekend. On Sunday, it would not be surprising to see him commit his first turnover since Week 17.

Hurts likely to to cause pain for 49ers defense 

Per Vic Tafur of The Athletic, the 49ers ranked 19th in success rate against all quarterback runs this season, including the playoffs. Against designed scrambles, San Francisco ranked 26th in success rate.

Still, it is unwise to expect this defensive unit to be gashed in the NFC championship game, simply because their opponent has a quarterback who is capable of using his legs to extend plays and escape the pocket. In 17 regular season games, the 49ers allowed the fewest points per game, fewest yards per game, fewest rush yards per carry, and led the league in both EPA and DVOA on the defensive side of the ball, according to David Lombardi.

Defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans, widely expected to be a head coach in 2023, will not be caught off guard in this situation. This is one of the most talented defenses in the NFL, and one of the most well-coached units in the league. They will be ready to play with a trip to the Super Bowl hanging in the balance.

Philadelphia Eagles Preview

How healthy is Hurts?

Earlier this week, Hurts was asked about his health and responded, “I’ve felt better, but it doesn’t matter. Gotta get it done. Against the New York Giants, Hurts finished 16 of 24 on pass attempts for 154 yards and two touchdowns. He also added 34 yards with his legs, including a rushing touchdown.

Despite winning comfortably in the divisional round, it is likely that Hurts is limited by his shoulder injury heading into this weekend. In Week 18, his first action since initially suffering the injury, Hurts attempted 23 of his 30 passes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Against the Giants, Hurts had only six pass attempts of 10-plus yards down-the-field. This will be an area of the game to watch on Sunday.

Vulnerable on the ground

During the regular season, Philadelphia ranked 23rd in rush EPA and 24th in opponent yards per carry on the ground. The Eagles could find it even more difficult to stop the run on Sunday against San Francisco, the most versatile offense in the entire NFL.

According to Warren Sharp, the 49ers have used 21 personnel on a league-high 36.2% of their plays since acquiring Christian McCaffrey, increasing that usage to 46.5% in their two playoff games. This year, the Eagles rank 29th in defensive EPA against 21 personnel.

49ers vs Eagles Prediction

Per Tim Kawakami of The Athletic, teams were 0-15 the week after they played the San Francisco 49ers this season. The key takeaway from this statistic is that the 49ers are a physical team that leaves their mark on opponents long after the final whistle is blown. Yet, it is worth questioning whether San Francisco will be able to deliver this same physical brand of football this Sunday – one week after a contest against the Dallas Cowboys, which the 49ers readily admitted was one of their most physical games of the season. Notably, both Christian McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell were held out of practice on Wednesday and Thursday in an effort to help their bodies recover from last weekend.

On the other side of this matchup, the Philadelphia Eagles are coming off of a 38-7 victory over the New York Giants, which was certainly far less physical than what the 49ers endured in the divisional round. Philadelphia is 14-1 in games that Jalen Hurts has started this year. Even if they are not the better football team in this matchup, they have a rest advantage, home field advantage, and did not have to fly across the country for this contest.

Expect the Eagles to find a way to get the job done on Sunday afternoon.

• PICK: Eagles Moneyline (-150, BetMGM)