The PGA TOUR is back in the States after a glorious fortnight of links play in the U.K., and there are just two weeks left in the Regular Season. This week’s 3M Open in Minnesota and next week’s Wyndham Championship in North Carolina will determine which 70 golfers make the FedExCup Playoffs, which begin August 10 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship.
Players looking to climb into the top 70 will definitely be one of the top storylines to watch this week. Just a reminder since this is the first year of this new format that players who miss the Playoffs will compete in the new FedExCup Fall for their TOUR cards for next year. They keep their points from the Regular Season and compete to stay in the top 125 at the season’s conclusion at the end of the season.
While it’s always fun to watch those players on the fringes battle to keep their status on the PGA TOUR, the highest-ranked golfers in action this week are also definitely worth watching for fantasy purposes. The highest-ranked player in both world ranking and FedExCup standings this week is defending champion Tony Finau, who is looking to bounce back after missing the cut at The Open Championship last week. He’s joined by Cameron Young, Justin Thomas, Sungjae Im, Hideki Matsuyama, Emiliano Grillo, and Sepp Straka as some of the biggest names in the field.
It’s also great to see the next wave of young golfers starting to carve out a place for themselves on the PGA TOUR. Ludwig Aberg is back in action after sitting out last week, and Sam Bennett is also in on a sponsors exemption. After winning last week’s alternate-field Barracuda Championship, Akshay Bhatia was in the field but opted to withdraw. In the prior week, 25-year-old PGA TOUR rookie Vincent Norrmann also won the Barbasol Championship to claim his first professional victory.
The field will be facing the par-71 TPC Twin Cities. To learn more about the course and the kind of game that typically works on this track, check out Matt Vincenzi’s stats preview.
This weekly GPP post focuses on players with lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding high-leverage plays is critical for GPP success. The picks here are designed to go against the grain and take advantage of players that may be overlooked or not selected due to risk factors.
Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk if it raises the lineup’s ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that usually lead to large-field success.
GPP contests are contests that have large numbers of entries and pay out huge prizes to the top few percent. Since this week is a major, the largest GPP on DraftKings is the $1M Summer Sand Trap, which awards $200K to first place.
The players highlighted will be good options if they deliver in all formats, but they come with risk factors that usually keep them from being the safest plays. Safety and reliability should be the focus of lineups in cash and double-up contests, where finishing in the top spot isn’t quite as important. To find specific guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
Usually, I rely on the Stroked Gained Model, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean into players that gain shots on approach since week-to-week putting performance can be highly volatile, even for the best players on the PGA TOUR.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools that FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editors note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
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High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Emiliano Grillo $9,700
Four players are priced over $10K, but Tony Finau appears to be the only place to gain leverage in that price bracket. Instead, I like Grillo just under $10K, who comes in with much better form and a 15.5% ownership projection which is lower than any other player priced at $9,400 or higher. He also offers the second-most Leverage of any player in that price range.
Of all the players in the field, Grillo has the sixth-highest ceiling projection and the sixth-highest median projection but checks in with the 12th-highest ownership percentage.
The 30-year-old from Argentia has shown a very high ceiling over the past few weeks, including claiming his second career PGA TOUR victory by winning the Charles Schwab Challenge. That was one of nine events in his past 12 in which he outperformed salary-based expectations. That run includes five top-15 finishes, including last week at The Open Championship.
Grillo did crash out of the John Deere Classic in his last U.S. event, but he should be able to continue his momentum from earlier this season as he returns to TPC Twin Cities for his third career appearance. He missed the cut in 2021, but last year he finished tied for second with Sungjae Im, behind only Finau. Given his history of success at this track and his current form, he has an extremely high ceiling this week.
He comes at a lower salary and ownership than the very top tier of options this week but still brings tons of upside.
Sepp Straka $9,500
Straka is another international player with a recent win who looks to be set to enjoy his week in the Twin Cities. Straka is projected for just a little higher ownership than Grillo at 16.9%, the tenth-most of any golfer in the field. He brings more upside than that, with the eighth-highest ceiling and median projections in the field and a solid 67% Leverage.
The one thing Straka doesn’t have this week is course history since he missed the cut in his only appearance here. If you’re looking for a horse for the course, Cameron Davis is a better option, but Straka’s recent form is so much sharper, so I prefer him despite his lack of track record here.
Straka has outperformed salary-based expectations in seven of his past eight tournaments, including his win at the John Deere Classic earlier this month and a runner-up finish last week at The Open Championship. He also finished in the top 20 at the PGA Championship and the Memorial during that run of success.
If this week turns into a low-scoring birdie fest as expected, Straka has shown the ability to keep up with anyone. His last round in the U.S. was that sparkling 62 at TPC Deere Run that could have been even better if it wasn’t for that double-bogey on No. 18.
Straka adjusted his setup for putting after the first round of the Deere and has caught fire with the flat stick since then. Since he also ranks in the top 15 on the PGA TOUR in SG: Approach, he has the skill set needed to pile up birdies and be right back in contention this week. Getting him under $10K and under 17% ownership makes him seem like a GPP lock.
Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
J.T. Poston $8,400
Of the 11 players priced from $8K to $9K, only three have positive SimLeverage. Poston is one of those three, along with Cam Davis and J.J. Spaun. Poston is projected for 12.5% ownership, which is the fourth-highest of the players in that price bracket but brings the second-highest ceiling and median projections.
Poston was having a fairly unremarkable season until three weeks ago at TPC Deere Run, where he surged to a T6 with four rounds of 68 or better, highlighted by a 65 on Saturday. He carried over that momentum for a T6 in the Scottish Open as well, despite a bit of a Final Round fade. He also played in The Open Championship, where he finished a solid T41 for his third straight week exceeding salary-based expectations.
In each of his two past appearances at TPC Twin Cities, Poston made the cut and finished in the top 30. Last season, he finished T11. He’ll look for another strong finish this week to secure his playoff spot since he starts the week at 60th and dangerously near that cut line.
Vincent Norrman $8,100
I really like Adam Hadwin and Lucas Glover in this price range, but they’re getting very chalky based on the latest ownership projections. Unless one of them drops to a more reasonable range, for GPPs it makes more sense to get some leverage with Mark Hubbard or Norrman. Since Norrman is a little cheaper and brings better SimLeverage, he’s my pick in this spot.
The 25-year-old from Sweden has been in my picks before but is moving from “rookie sleeper” to “rising star” after getting his first PGA TOUR win two weeks ago at the Barbasol Championship, where he bested Nathan Kimsey on the first hole of the playoff. Norrman was coming off a top 25 at the Rocket Mortgage before that win and followed it up with another top 25 last week at the Barracuda Championship.
Norrman ranks in the top 10 on the PGA TOUR in driving distance and typically gains significant strokes off the tee. That kind of approach has played well on this track in the past for previous champs Finau, Cameron Champ, and Matthew Wolff. He has the kind of game that fits the layout, and he has excelled at low-scoring events. He has posted top 25s at the Puerto Rico Open, the Corales Puntacana Mexico Open, the Rocket Mortgage, and the Byron Nelson, significantly exceeding salary-based expectations in each of those tournaments.
Norrman feels a little underpriced at barely more than $8K, and I love the upside he brings at his price tag and projected ownership.
Value PGA DFS Picks
Austin Eckroat $7,500
There are several fascinating options just below $8K and some fairly high ownership projections for players like Aaron Rai, Eric Cole, and Nicolai Hojgaard. Eckroat is right in the mix with that group and comes a little bit cheaper as well. He does have an ownership projection over 17%, the highest of any player in my picks this week, but I’m willing to eat a little chalk with Eckroat at this price. Just be sure to mix in a differentiator at another roster spot for GPP lineups.
Eckroat comes in on a nice roll with made cuts in seven of his past eight tournaments, including a second-place finish behind Jason Day at the Byron Nelson. He may get overlooked a little bit since he missed the cut at the Rocket Mortgage before a T65 in Scotland, but his game has been on-point for most of the summer.
Even though he’s a rookie, he actually played this event two years ago on a sponsors exemption. He seemed very comfortable on the track, finishing T16 and finding his stride with three rounds of 67-68-67 after opening with a 73. His game has come a long way since then, and he seems to be ready to make a push for the playoffs. He starts the week at 62nd but can secure his playoff spot with strong showings in the next two weeks.
Eckroat has the second-highest ceiling projection of all players under $8K. He also brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus and the highest Points per Salary projection of any player in the entire field. He seems to fit the mold of players we have seen succeed at TPC Twin Cities in the past and makes a strong option at this price point.
Kevin Yu $7,100
Yu has the highest ceiling projection of any player priced under $7.5K and the third-highest projected Plus/Minus of any player in the field.
While he had his PGA TOUR rookie year interrupted by an injury, he has flashed nice upside when he’s been able to tee it up. He ranks fourth in the field in SG: Off The Tee over the past 24 rounds, third on the PGA Tour in SG: Off the Tee on the season, and 11th in SG: Tee to Green. His putting has been inconsistent, which is why his results have been a bit of a roller coaster, but he did show how good he can be on similar greens to this week’s when he gained 1.81 strokes putting per round at the John Deere Classic on his way to an impressive T6.
Statistically, Yu brings exactly the right skill set to contend at TPC Twin Cities. Since he’s fully healthy now, he’ll look to make up for lost time and secure his PGA TOUR card for next year. A big finish this week could even help him vault into the playoffs, and I expect Yu to end up as a great value play at barely over $7K this week.
Sleeper PGA DFS Picks
Carson Young $6,800
Since both Eckroat and Yu are chalkier than I’d normally like, I’m going for a couple of deep-dive picks under $7K with ownership projections under 3%. Young has shown the ability to go low and has outperformed salary-based expectations in 11 of his past 16 events dating back to the Honda Classic.
The best finish of his rookie season was a T3 at the Puerto Rico Open, and he has added top 25s at five events since then, including the Byron Nelson, Mexico Open, Charles Schwab Challenge, and most recently at the Travelers Championship. Young did miss the cut at the Deere but bounced back and played the weekend at the Barracuda Championship last week, where he finished solo-43rd. Aside from his disappointing showing at TPC Deere Run, he has a track record of coming through in weeks with fields and courses like this one.
Young shows up in the top 15 in this field of SG: Par 5 and Birdie or Better Gained in the past 36 rounds, which are indicators that should point to another strong showing for the rookie this week. He has the second-highest Perfect% of any player priced under $7K and still comes with just 2.4% projected ownership.
Grayson Murray $6,700
For the last sleeper pick of this week, we’re going all the way to Murray, who has a projected ownership of only 0.1%.
The last few years have been a rough ride for Murray, who won the Barbasol Championship back in 2017. He had multiple off-course struggles, including mental health and injury issues. He was seriously hurt in a scooter accident just before his debut this season, receiving 50 stitches and being knocked unconscious, according to Golfweek. He withdrew that week and understandably got off to a slow start even once he was able to return to the course.
Recently, though, the 29-year-old has shown some good signs that he’s starting to overcome his physical and mental challenges. Murray has played eight events on the Korn Ferry Tour this season and is 19th in KFT points after a pair of top 10s, including a win at the AdventHealth Championship at Blue Hills Country Club in Kansas City last May. He has also been able to translate his improved recent form to some PGA TOUR events lately, with a T6 at the John Deere Classic and a T7 at the Barbasol two weeks ago. He missed the cut last week at the Barracuda but should be fresh and locked in for a good performance this week. He made the cut at this event last season after withdrawing in his first appearance back in 2021.
Murray is a long shot, for sure, but he has the second-highest SimLeverage of all players priced under $7K. He matches two Pro Trends as well, which is the fourth-most of any player under $7K. His two recent successes could indicate a turnaround for Murray and show the upside he brings despite coming in almost entirely off the radar.
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