3M Open PGA DFS Stats Preview: Course Fits, GPP Picks, and Values

The golf world was treated to a spectacular major championship as Brian Harman won the 151st Open Championship at Royal Liverpool. This week, the PGA TOUR heads to TPC Twin Cities to play the 3M Open for the fifth consecutive year.

An Arnold Palmer design, TPC Twin Cities is a 7,431-yard par 71. The course is extremely flat throughout and features bentgrass greens. The fairways are easier to hit than the TOUR average, but 13 of the 18 holes do have water hazards in play.

The 3M Open will play host to 156 golfers this week, with the top 65 players and ties making the weekend. Some notable golfers making the trip to Minnesota include Jason Day, Tony Finau, Sungjae Im, Cameron Young, Ludvig Aberg, Sepp Straka, Hideki Matsuyama, and Justin Thomas.

For contests on DraftKings, I will be breaking down the key stats (past 24 rounds) and selecting golfers from different price tiers to provide flexibility for a DFS lineup.

And if you missed it, we added two new metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.

The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is excellent for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.

For large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

This analysis may reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.

Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee

In 2019, we saw two of the longest drivers in the game — Matthew Wolff and Bryson DeChambeau — go at it down the stretch at TPC Twin Cities, showing that distance is a significant factor. Two years ago, one of the longest hitters in the game, Cameron Champ, hoisted the trophy. Last year, big-hitting Tony Finau got it done. With plenty of hazards in play, a total off-the-tee game will be paramount.

High-end target: Ludvig Aberg — $9,400 (3rd in Strokes Gained: Off The Tee)
Mid-range target: Lucas Glover — $8,200 (16th in Strokes Gained: Off The Tee)
Value target: Kevin Yu— $7,100 (4th in Strokes Gained: Off The Tee)

Strokes Gained: Approach

Every year, ball strikers were all over the leaderboard at TPC Twin Cities. The 3M open will require sharp iron play to get into contention.

High-end target: Hideki Matsuyama— $10,000 (1st Strokes Gained: Approach)
Mid-range target: Lucas Glover— $8,200 (3rd Strokes Gained: Approach)
Value target: Chez Reavie — $7,300 (7th Strokes Gained: Approach)

Birdie or Better: Gained

The green in regulation percentage at TPC Twin Cities is much higher than the TOUR average. Making par isn’t going to be enough to get it done at the 3M Open. I expect ball strikers and birdie makers to hold a large share of the win equity this week.

High-end target: Ludvig Aberg — $9,400 (6th Birdie or Better: Gained)
Mid-range target: Gary Woodland — $9,200 (4th Birdie or Better: Gained)
Value target: Marty Dou — $6,700 (5th Birdie or Better: Gained)

Par 4: 450-500

The most common par-4 distance on the course will be from 450-500. Golfers who play these holes well should be able to separate themselves on the leaderboard in Minnesota.

High-end target: Hideki Matsuyama — $10,000 (6th Par 4: 450-500)
Mid-range target: Vincent Normann — $8,100 (3rd Par 4: 450-500)
Value target: Kevin Roy — $6,400 (11th Par 4: 450-500)

Opportunities Gained

Opportunities gained is similar to birdie or better but doesn’t include whether or not the golfer converted the putt for birdie. Players who aren’t typically the best putters have done well at TPC Twin Cities, so I’m looking for golfers who are giving themselves the most chances to convert birdies.

High-end target: Hideki Matsuyama — $10,000 (1st Opportunities Gained)
Mid-range target: Lucas Glover — $8,200 (3rd Opportunities Gained)
Value target: Chez Reavie — $7,300— (6th Opportunities Gained)

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For contests on DraftKings, I will be breaking down the key stats (past 24 rounds) and selecting golfers from different price tiers to provide flexibility for a DFS lineup.

And if you missed it, we added two new metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.

The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is excellent for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.

For large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.