I don’t have a clever introduction here, but I do want to touch on something I have noticed specifically in the past two weeks as it relates to the DFS “controversy” that is making continuous headlines.
Within the fantasy community, there is tension building between people who play DFS regularly – either for fun or for regular income – and those who don’t play DFS. First of all, if you don’t play or enjoy DFS: that’s fine. I personally did not start playing DFS seriously until 2013 and was hesitant to start playing at first. I get it.
No matter if you play DFS, in re-draft leagues, dynasty leagues, or MFL10s: you are a part of the fantasy community. Period. The fantasy industry is currently under the microscope and instead of adding to the noise, I encourage all writers, fantasy fans, DFS grinders, dynasty league-ers, and re-draft players alike to stand together. We simply do not need additional destructive commentary from people in the community. Everyone can agree we’ve seen enough of that already from our elected officials and “journalists.” Instead, I encourage everyone in the community to protect and vow to improve our fantasy product.
I love fantasy sports and genuinely believe that regulation of DFS is necessary, is coming soon, and will be best for the community long-term. I’d just hate to see this “controversy” tear people away from their hobby and their passion.
Let’s get to the Week 6 Trends.
- Perception Versus Reality with “Pass-Catching” Running Backs
Notice here that Gio Bernard has beaten his salary-implied expectation in all five of his games so far, but despite this fact, his salary has declined (-$400) in the past two weeks. Bernard has never finished worse than the RB25 so far in weekly PPR output and has three or more receptions in four of five games in 2015. He’s also out-touched Jeremy Hill in the last four weeks (72:40). Hill costs $1,200 more than Bernard in Week 6 on DraftKings.
- Tight Ends With A Bargain Rating of 95% or Higher
I’m not sure about anyone else, but if I don’t play Rob Gronkowski on a given week in cash games, I generally find the tight end position to be incredibly hard to predict. I took a zero from “The Owen Daniels Experience” in my head-to-head’s last week for crying out loud.
Given the volatility at tight end, I think there’s some merit to completely punt the position if you don’t go Gronk. Bargain Rating looks at the typical difference in site salaries at a position and then ranks a player based on how much of a bargain he is in a particular game relative to the historical data. It typically skews towards cheaper players on DraftKings since there is a natural difference in salary caps between DraftKings and FanDuel.
So, with that said, the tight ends receiving at least three targets per-game with a Bargain Rating of 95% or more on DraftKings this week are: Larry Donnell ($2800), Owen Daniels ($2700), Heath Miller ($3100), and Jordan Cameron ($3000). Daniels and Miller aren’t in play for cash games but I definitely think Donnell and Cameron are interesting punt options for Gronk-less lineups. Richard Rodgers didn’t match the criteria here (Bargain Rating: 88%), but he’s $3100 and has seen six and eight targets in the last two weeks.
- Running Backs in Games With High Over/Unders
This is an interesting trend simply because, theoretically, there should be more passing touchdowns in games with high over/unders. More scoring could also lead to more running back production overall, but keep in mind 68% of offensive touchdowns came via the air in 2013-14. The over/under total for Colts vs. Patriots is currently 54.5.
