There are a ton of interesting plays this week, for a multitude of reasons.
As I continue to look across and research the Week 15 slate, I’m drawn to multiple situations and am looking to leverage myself in those spots. This week also features a slew of cheap running backs that are thrust into new opportunity thanks to an injury, or two, or three in front of them. Pricing seems a little tighter on DraftKings, but here in this column, I am going to focus on three players I think are way too cheap and are in solid spots.
One thing I have gotten away from – and something I tend to be good at – is taking the value where I see it. Over the last two weeks, I think I’ve gotten a little too caught up in what I perceive to be good matchups instead of taking advantage of inefficiencies in the site’s pricing algorithm. With that in mind, let’s look towards this week’s slate:
1. Golden Tate Seeing More Targets and Out-Scoring… Calvin Johnson?
(Note: Golden Tate’s points vs. expectation graph is over the last month.)
No, that title is not deceiving you. Tate has 39 targets to Calvin Johnson’s 36 over the past four weeks and has out-scored (PPR) Johnson in three of the past four. I would be remiss without mentioning Tate has also out-targeted Johnson in the red zone (9:6) over the past month and per Rich Hribar’s weekly Worksheet, Tate’s 32 receptions over the past four weeks are tied with Brandon Marshall for the most in the league.
Calvin Johnson is $6,900 this week while Tate is $5,500 – and while Johnson is a great play as well, he’s been a floor option for the most of the year (along with Tate) and you can get a similar floor for $1,400 cheaper. (Take the value where you see it.) The Lions get the Saints on Monday Night and this is the same New Orleans defense we’ve been attacking all year for their leakiness in the middle of the field against tight ends. Eric Ebron has played 62.3 and 75 percent of the Lions snaps over the past two weeks and has two and five targets in those affairs. Golden Tate runs roughly 60% of his routes out of the slot on the year and he has double-digit targets in three of his last four games.
2. Michael Floyd Has Been The Cardinals’ Best Receiver (in Fantasy) For A Month
(Note: Michael Floyd’s points vs. expectation graph is over the last month.)
It’s true. Michael Floyd has been the highest-scoring Cardinals receiver (PPR) in three of his last four active games. He’s $4,400 this week while John Brown (who is also way too cheap is $4,900) and Larry Fitzgerald is $7,300. Floyd has obliterated his expectation in three of the past four games (Plus/Minus of +11.1 over the last month) and his last five stat lines are as follows: 4-106-1 (8 targets), 7-113-2 (9), 1-14 (2), 7-104 (12), and 5-102-1 (9). The only down week he had (1-14) was against Cleveland when he was limited by a hamstring injury.
Did I mention the Eagles give up the most fantasy points over expectation to opposing wide receivers (+4.5)?
3. Ben Watson’s Home/Road Splits
I’ll be completely honest here: I don’t think I have played Ben Watson once this year. At all. But, when his team is at home, playing in a game with a total of 51, and the Lions are giving up the ninth-most yards per-game (70.4) plus the most fantasy points per reception (3.28) to opposing tight ends over their last five games, I can’t be biased anymore. The Lions are 30th(!) in Football Outsiders’ DVOA vs. tight ends this year, for crying out loud.
Watson leads the Saints in targets over the past three weeks (9.3 targets per-game) and is seventh in target share (22.2%) among all tight ends during that span. His six red zone targets leads New Orleans since Week 8 and five of those six looks have come in the past three games.
Again, the theme of Week 15’s trends is taking the value where you see it. In home games this year, Ben Watson has met or exceeded his salary-implied expectation in five of six contests. Watson is $4,800, while Jordan Reed’s ($5,900) salary has jumped up $1,400 over the past month, Greg Olsen is $6,900, and Rob Gronkowski would be the sixth-highest price wide receiver on the slate (at $7,700).
