NFL

3 Vital DraftKings Trends for Week 14

Week 13 sucked for me.

It was one of those weeks where you have solid plays across the board, but failed to find a way to put them all in the same lineup and capitalize. I had my worst week in cash games ever (mostly thanks to Smokin’ Jay Cutler). Missing on Cutler in my main cash lineup put me at a massive disadvantage due to the fact six other passers – some of which were near the same price point — had 34-plus DraftKings points.

I’ve moved on, but one thing I am trying to get better at is learning from my mistakes. I was on Cutler in cash early in the week and never really allowed myself to cycle through other plays (I loved Big Ben – and used him in tournaments and double ups, for example). My typical roster construction process during the week usually involves posting my head-to-heads some time on Tuesday with a general lineup I “like” and then throughout the week, I cycle through my player pool and what I consider should be chalk and try to put myself in the best position possible to beat my opponents.

I didn’t do that in Week 13. And that’s why I was so frustrated. In hindsight, it’s easy to say playing Cutler was bad process – but after researching it more, I generally think it was bad process. Chicago was 50.3% run-heavy over their last three games going into Week 13 and virtually turned Cutler into a game manager.

So, what I am getting at here: learn from your mistakes. I’m fine with getting beat and losing, but I can’t live with bad process over the long run. It’s easy to look at your high-scoring lineups and confirm your process, but genuinely going through your worst lineup(s) and trying to learn something – no matter how painful it is – can be incredibly beneficial. I learned a lot about myself in Week 13.

Let’s get to Week 14’s most important trends.

1. Big Ben Versus An Injury Depleted Bengals Secondary

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(For what it is worth, I love Russell Wilson this week against a Baltimore secondary that is giving up the second-most points over expectation (+6.2) to opposing signal callers. Here’s a trend from earlier this week; Wilson is a great play and I expect him to be chalk.)

Quarterback ownership will be fairly spread out this week and Big Ben will probably near the top-five of the ownership cohort at quarterback along with Russell Wilson. Despite Wilson’s stellar matchup and red-hot play as of late, I think Ben has a higher ceiling this week, by a hair. I’m not sure how bold of a call that is, but the Bengals are likely going to be without their best cornerback, Adam Jones (foot), while slot corner Leon Hall is dealing with back issues and free safety George Iloka has an ailing groin. Cincinnati has given up the fewest pass completions of 20-plus yards this year (31, 2.6 per game), while Big Ben has 36 completions of 20-plus yards (4.5 per game) despite appearing in just eight total games.

Not including the game he left early in Week 3 (knee) and his first game back from said injury (Week 8), Roethlisberger has beaten his salary-implied by at least +4.29 DraftKings points in each game. Again, excluding his early exit in Week 3 and return in Week 8, here are Big Ben’s passing yardage totals this year: 351, 369, 334, 379, 456, and 364. Roethlisberger has finished as the QB8, QB1, QB7, QB2, QB7, and QB4 in DraftKings fantasy output, discounting Week 3 and Week 8. Leon Hall returned to practice on Thursday, but don’t let the Bengals 7th-ranked secondary in Football Outsiders’ Pass Defense DVOA scare you off of using Ben this week

2. Thomas Rawls’ Consistency and Heavy Favorites

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Note: Rawls’ points vs. expectation graph is just over the last month. Marshawn Lynch was last active in Week 10.

At press time, Seattle is currently installed as 10(!) point road favorites over the hapless Baltimore Ravens. As of 5:30 ET on Thursday, it looks as if Jimmy Clausen will start (for the second time this year) against the Seahawks. My eyebrows are always raised when Vegas sets a line in favor of the road team at or above 10, but this sort of seems to make sense given the context of the Ravens’ roster, their injuries on both sides of the ball, and the general talent level on offense they are going to field this weekend. Sorry, Jimmy Clausen.

With that said, there have been 46 instances of a running back seeing at least eight carries per-game and their team being favored by 10 or more points. Below are the plus/minus’ (actual points minus salary-based expected points) at home and the road:

graham 3

 

I’m aware that the season-long sample on Baltimore’s run defense is strong (they’re 14th in Football Outsiders’ Rush Defense DVOA), but they were just lit up by Lamar Miller (20-113-0) in Week 13 and project to be playing from behind again this week. Rawls has finished as the RB1 (home, SF), RB14 (home, PIT), and RB7 (at MIN) in DraftKings weekly finishes over the past three weeks without Lynch and has the following rushing yardage totals in his six starts on the year: 104, 48, 169, 209, 81, and 101. Rawls will be chalk-y in tournaments, but he’s a very strong play for cash games while a lot of people will be on Russell Wilson (for good reason).

3. Near Minimum Priced D/ST, as Home Favorites, vs. Teams with Vegas Projections Below 24 Points

graham 4

 

Something I have been considering all year – given the variability of D/ST fantasy scoring – is paying way down to the bottom of the defensive barrel for usable production. I think it makes some sense it certain spots just to pay all the way down because the same variance/risk applies with the defensive scoring that relies on low frequency events. At $2,000-$2,500, all you need is 5-6 points to hit “value” and anything beyond that is gravy. I’m going to continue to do more research on this for a future article – and of course, nothing is ever definitive in DFS — but the early data is pretty strong for slightly paying down at defense.

This week I’m looking at using the Bucs’ defense at home against a Saints team that averages 32.3 points in home games (the most in the league) and 17.5 points when they travel (27th most). New Orleans will be without Mark Ingram (shoulder) and most likely Brandin Cooks, who was added to the injury report on Thursday with a concussion. A Doug Martin-Bucs D/ST is in play for cash games and especially tournaments. Jameis Winston was the highest owned quarterback in FanDuel’s Thursday Bomb (11.5%).

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Week 13 sucked for me.

It was one of those weeks where you have solid plays across the board, but failed to find a way to put them all in the same lineup and capitalize. I had my worst week in cash games ever (mostly thanks to Smokin’ Jay Cutler). Missing on Cutler in my main cash lineup put me at a massive disadvantage due to the fact six other passers – some of which were near the same price point — had 34-plus DraftKings points.

I’ve moved on, but one thing I am trying to get better at is learning from my mistakes. I was on Cutler in cash early in the week and never really allowed myself to cycle through other plays (I loved Big Ben – and used him in tournaments and double ups, for example). My typical roster construction process during the week usually involves posting my head-to-heads some time on Tuesday with a general lineup I “like” and then throughout the week, I cycle through my player pool and what I consider should be chalk and try to put myself in the best position possible to beat my opponents.

I didn’t do that in Week 13. And that’s why I was so frustrated. In hindsight, it’s easy to say playing Cutler was bad process – but after researching it more, I generally think it was bad process. Chicago was 50.3% run-heavy over their last three games going into Week 13 and virtually turned Cutler into a game manager.

So, what I am getting at here: learn from your mistakes. I’m fine with getting beat and losing, but I can’t live with bad process over the long run. It’s easy to look at your high-scoring lineups and confirm your process, but genuinely going through your worst lineup(s) and trying to learn something – no matter how painful it is – can be incredibly beneficial. I learned a lot about myself in Week 13.

Let’s get to Week 14’s most important trends.

1. Big Ben Versus An Injury Depleted Bengals Secondary

graham 1

 

(For what it is worth, I love Russell Wilson this week against a Baltimore secondary that is giving up the second-most points over expectation (+6.2) to opposing signal callers. Here’s a trend from earlier this week; Wilson is a great play and I expect him to be chalk.)

Quarterback ownership will be fairly spread out this week and Big Ben will probably near the top-five of the ownership cohort at quarterback along with Russell Wilson. Despite Wilson’s stellar matchup and red-hot play as of late, I think Ben has a higher ceiling this week, by a hair. I’m not sure how bold of a call that is, but the Bengals are likely going to be without their best cornerback, Adam Jones (foot), while slot corner Leon Hall is dealing with back issues and free safety George Iloka has an ailing groin. Cincinnati has given up the fewest pass completions of 20-plus yards this year (31, 2.6 per game), while Big Ben has 36 completions of 20-plus yards (4.5 per game) despite appearing in just eight total games.

Not including the game he left early in Week 3 (knee) and his first game back from said injury (Week 8), Roethlisberger has beaten his salary-implied by at least +4.29 DraftKings points in each game. Again, excluding his early exit in Week 3 and return in Week 8, here are Big Ben’s passing yardage totals this year: 351, 369, 334, 379, 456, and 364. Roethlisberger has finished as the QB8, QB1, QB7, QB2, QB7, and QB4 in DraftKings fantasy output, discounting Week 3 and Week 8. Leon Hall returned to practice on Thursday, but don’t let the Bengals 7th-ranked secondary in Football Outsiders’ Pass Defense DVOA scare you off of using Ben this week

2. Thomas Rawls’ Consistency and Heavy Favorites

graham 2

 

Note: Rawls’ points vs. expectation graph is just over the last month. Marshawn Lynch was last active in Week 10.

At press time, Seattle is currently installed as 10(!) point road favorites over the hapless Baltimore Ravens. As of 5:30 ET on Thursday, it looks as if Jimmy Clausen will start (for the second time this year) against the Seahawks. My eyebrows are always raised when Vegas sets a line in favor of the road team at or above 10, but this sort of seems to make sense given the context of the Ravens’ roster, their injuries on both sides of the ball, and the general talent level on offense they are going to field this weekend. Sorry, Jimmy Clausen.

With that said, there have been 46 instances of a running back seeing at least eight carries per-game and their team being favored by 10 or more points. Below are the plus/minus’ (actual points minus salary-based expected points) at home and the road:

graham 3

 

I’m aware that the season-long sample on Baltimore’s run defense is strong (they’re 14th in Football Outsiders’ Rush Defense DVOA), but they were just lit up by Lamar Miller (20-113-0) in Week 13 and project to be playing from behind again this week. Rawls has finished as the RB1 (home, SF), RB14 (home, PIT), and RB7 (at MIN) in DraftKings weekly finishes over the past three weeks without Lynch and has the following rushing yardage totals in his six starts on the year: 104, 48, 169, 209, 81, and 101. Rawls will be chalk-y in tournaments, but he’s a very strong play for cash games while a lot of people will be on Russell Wilson (for good reason).

3. Near Minimum Priced D/ST, as Home Favorites, vs. Teams with Vegas Projections Below 24 Points

graham 4

 

Something I have been considering all year – given the variability of D/ST fantasy scoring – is paying way down to the bottom of the defensive barrel for usable production. I think it makes some sense it certain spots just to pay all the way down because the same variance/risk applies with the defensive scoring that relies on low frequency events. At $2,000-$2,500, all you need is 5-6 points to hit “value” and anything beyond that is gravy. I’m going to continue to do more research on this for a future article – and of course, nothing is ever definitive in DFS — but the early data is pretty strong for slightly paying down at defense.

This week I’m looking at using the Bucs’ defense at home against a Saints team that averages 32.3 points in home games (the most in the league) and 17.5 points when they travel (27th most). New Orleans will be without Mark Ingram (shoulder) and most likely Brandin Cooks, who was added to the injury report on Thursday with a concussion. A Doug Martin-Bucs D/ST is in play for cash games and especially tournaments. Jameis Winston was the highest owned quarterback in FanDuel’s Thursday Bomb (11.5%).

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