As a college student, I often work weird hours. It’s currently 2am. I just ran through the gauntlet of four exams this week and pretty much had to take a step back from anything fantasy related for two days. That doesn’t seem like a long time, but for someone that does this full-time (along with school), you could say I am a bit flustered. My weekly routine (outside of my personal life) revolves around fantasy football, working out, eating copious amounts of Chipotle, and studying (in that order, if we’re being honest here).
Stepping away for a few days in order to pass my classes so I can really do this fantasy thing full-time made me realize how fortunate I am to write fantasy-related content. Just two years ago I quit a part-time job in accounting to pursue writing and not only was that one of the best decisions of my life, but it’s been an incredibly humbling journey at the same time. So, while it was odd to take a self-induced break, I am sort of thankful I had to.
Also, my mid-week break (which felt like an eternity) gave me a fresh mind for Week 13 and led me to some plays that I feel really strong about. Here are Week 13’s most important trends:
- Julio Jones When His Salary Decreases
I don’t need to give “advice” in order for people to play Julio Jones. Come on. But this is such an interesting spot for Julio for a multitude of reasons. First and foremost, he’s coming off of a game in Week 12 where he burned everyone (myself included) and was inexplicably out-targeted by Roddy White (8:7). Julio’s down week in production led to a -$400 salary reduction and he is now at his cheapest price he has been all year (Week 1 he was also priced at $9,000, like this week).
Julio smashed expectation in five of seven games when his salary has decreased in a small range (-$500 to -$100) including three ceiling performances (12-164-2, 9-161-2, and 12-162-1). Those final two stat lines (which yielded 40.1 and 36.2 DraftKings points respectively) came against the Bucs’ (Atlanta’s Week 13 opponent) in Week 3 of 2014 and Week 8 of this year. I don’t have a strong take on who I like most out of the Julio, Odell Beckham, and Antonio Brown priced tier, but this is an absolutely monster spot to get on Jones – a depressed price and a relatively depressed ownership percentage. Jones was 10.4% owned in FanDuel’s Thursday Snap, just behind Beckham (10.9%) and well below Antonio Brown (19.1%), for what it’s worth.
- Running Backs Priced Above $5,000 with a Plus/Minus of 8.0 or Higher
I included the full game log here for this trend (in descending order of actual points) to get a clear view of what this trend brings to the table for us. LeSean McCoy ($5,700, Projected Plus/Minus: +10.1) and DeAngelo Williams ($5,600, Projected Plus/Minus: +8.5) are who we’re looking at specifically. Both Williams and McCoy are home favorites this week, which is a trend that we constantly want to attack and both of these backs are great plays this week irrespective of one another. Williams’ DraftKings running back finishes this year (when he starts) are: RB15, RB2, RB1, RB31, and RB4. He’s basically a near-lock to return value for cash games because he has averaged 21.6 touches per-game in his five starts along with at least 83.6% of snaps in each.
The far more interesting play for this trend is LeSean McCoy. He has been red-hot over the past month (he has DraftKings running back finishes of RB9, RB4, RB5, and RB9) but gets an equally hot Texans’ rush defense at home in Week 13. Houston has really played well on defense in their last three weeks limiting the Bengals, Jets, and Saints to 6, 17, and 6 points respectively. Despite this, Houston still ranks 20th in Football Outsiders’ Rush DVOA metric and have surrendered 4.87 yards per carry (in five games) to enemy backs on the road this year. That 4.87 YPC average would be third-highest allowed on the year.
- A Monday Night Hammer: Washington Defense?
Am I allowed to leave this section blank with just the words: Matt Cassel? If so, here goes.
As Denny Carter of The Fake Football mentions here, opposing D/ST have managed the following fantasy points totals against Cassel in his starts this season: 13, 16, 7, 9, and 11. Washington is at home as 4.5-point favorites, Dallas has a measly Vegas point projection of 18.8, and this is a division game in December. Did I mention that Washington is $300 above the minimum price at $2,300?
