Thanksgiving is my favorite holiday, which is weird for me. My girlfriend calls me the “Grinch” because of my disdain for holidays or being festive, but I do love one thing: food.
Anyway, I’m writing this article stuffed from all of the Turkey Day items I just over-ate and couldn’t come up with a clever introduction or any random thought nuggets. Maybe the Philadelphia-Detroit and Carolina-Dallas games were just such un-inspiring contests that it zapped my creativity and I couldn’t come up with anything to lead this article with. It was probably the food (and/or watching the sadness that is Chip Kelly’s “offense”).
All right, as I’m coming out of my near coma, let’s get to the Week 12 Trends.
- J. Yeldon Against the League-Worst Rush Defense
T.J. Yeldon ($4,800) has basically been a “floor” play all year without much upside. He’s exceeded his salary-based expectation for six straight weeks, but hasn’t scored more than 22.4 DraftKings points in his rookie campaign. Despite this, Yeldon is still due for a little positive regression. He’s the only running back (of 18 qualifying) to have 50-plus percent of his teams’ red zone carries and not have a red zone rushing touchdown. The other 18 backs with 50-plus percent of red zone carries have at least two rushing touchdowns inside of the 20-yard line.
So, we have a potential regression candidate in Yeldon at home (as four point favorites) against a Chargers “rush defense” that ranks dead last in Football Outsiders’ Rush Defense DVOA. The Chargers are also giving up the most yards per carry (5.07) and the most fantasy points allowed on a per attempt (0.77) and per touch (1.08) basis to opposing backs. I love targeting underpriced backs relative to their touch projection (Yeldon is averaging 19.3 touches/game) already, so this is a near perfect storm for me.
- Quarterbacks With a Projected Plus/Minus of Six or Greater
At press time, Brian Hoyer has a Projected Plus/Minus of +10.0 on DraftKings this weekend. (Keep in mind Hoyer is minimum priced). We all know the Saints secondary is absolutely atrocious (they’re giving up 9.7 points above expectation to enemy quarterbacks); in turn, Hoyer has the highest Projected Plus/Minus for a quarterback in Fantasy Labs’ database ever.
Here is a list of DraftKings fantasy points the Saints have allowed to opposing quarterbacks over the last month: 29.02 (Andrew Luck), 41.00 (Eli Manning), 36.34 (Marcus Mariota), and 31.96 (Kirk Cousins). New Orleans has given up a 67.8% completion percentage, 1,378 passing yards, and a 17:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio during that four-week span. Hoyer is certainly in play for cash games and DeAndre Hopkins is an easy way to get exposure to this matchup if you choose to pay up a bit at quarterback.
- Carson Palmer’s Insane Consistency
Speaking of paying up at quarterback, Carson Palmer has destroyed his salary-implied expectation over the last three weeks despite his price slightly increasing. With Brady at $8,000 and Palmer somehow at $7,100 on DraftKings this week, Palmer is still underpriced against a 49ers secondary giving up 2.9 fantasy points above expectation to opposing quarterbacks. Palmer has scored no fewer than 18.34 DraftKings points in a game this year, and San Francisco’s secondary has allowed true ceiling games to opposing signal-callers this year. The ‘Niners have allowed a multi-passing touchdown performance in five games this year, including three touchdown outings from Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, and Russell Wilson.
Palmer is always in play for cash games, but this is an amazing spot to be on Palmer as the other top-five quarterbacks in pricing (Brady, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, and Philip Rivers) all have warts this week.
