For some weird reason, I’m really excited to play the wild-card DFS slate.
All four road teams are currently favored, which is not only odd, but should result in some interesting, unpredictable games. I also sort of like all four road teams to win, which should go hilariously awful.
So, I decided to do a special edition of “Three Trends” for the opening two playoff rounds. Instead of talking about Jordan Reed and Antonio Brown (both of whom I expect to be over 60 percent owned), we’ll dig into the slate and go a bit more below the surface. As I wrote earlier this week, I think it’s fine to play chalk in short-slates and will likely have at least Brown and/or Reed in my main lineup on DraftKings this weekend.
Let’s hit it:
1. The Pittsburgh Running Back Situation
I can’t go without writing about the elephant in the room. As it stands now, DeAngelo Williams (ankle) will likely miss the Saturday evening game on the road against the Bengals. That means the Steelers will roll with Fitzgerald Toussaint and Jordan Todman at running back in the wild-card round.
The thing is, Pittsburgh has been a bit of a one-back team in terms of usage all season. As noted by NFL.com’s Matt Harmon, excluding the two games where Le’Veon Bell and DeAngelo Williams went down mid-game with injuries, the starting running back for the Steelers has averaged 92.5% of the snaps per-game. I’ll add that Bell averaged 72% of carries while Williams had 78.9% (when either one was starting). Toussaint handled all of the running back snaps (34) after Williams went down. Todman was not active in Week 17.
If we can get any sort of confirmation that Toussaint or Todman is starting prior to Saturday night, there could be a decent running back play open in a slate where the position itself is simply destitute.
2. James Jones’ Increased Role
The Packers offense has been a shell of itself this year without Jordy Nelson and everyone knows it. James Jones is no Nelson, but he’s very quietly played well over the past month and his role has expanded to the point where it’s hard to ignore. Randall Cobb and Davante Adams have been completely unreliable all season, while Jones’ targets have trended upward over the past four games (7, 9, 11, 13).
Helping Jones’ case, Washington has allowed three “ceiling” games to boundary wide receivers in their last four, allowing 6-107-1 to Alshon Jeffery in Week 14, 5-111-2 to Sammy Watkins in Week 15, and just recently 8-173 to Terrance Williams in Week 17. Jordan Matthews also ripped Washington out of the slot for 6-104-1 in Week 16.
3. A.J. Green Shredding Pittsburgh Over the Last Two Years
Above are A.J. Green’s DraftKings fantasy points scored against the Steelers over the past two regular seasons. In those games, he’s posted (in reverse chronological order): 11-224-1, 8-82, 11-118-1, and 6-132-1 receiving lines. The final game against the Bengals (6-132-1) was with A.J. McCarron at the helm after Andy Dalton left early with an injured thumb. Green only has 21.5% of Bengals’ targets in his last three games, but this stellar matchup with Pittsburgh may be the remedy.
Bonus Trend: Cold Weather Effects on Fantasy Scoring
Below are each relative position’s average Plus/Minus when game-time temperatures are below freezing. Our Plus/Minus statistic is the average fantasy point difference between expected fantasy points (which is salary-based) and actual points. (I want to shout-out Kevin Cole for aiding me to this idea).
The current game time temperature for Seattle-Minnesota is expected to be at or below zero degrees Fahrenheit:
There is not a huge downtick for signal-callers, but note-worthy all the same.
So, here we see a tiny jump in expectation for running backs when temperatures are at or below freezing. It’s not a massive swing, but also not insignificant. I’ll note here that I filtered through this data using our Trends tool so that a running back must be averaging at least eight rushing attempts per-game to qualify.
This was a little surprising to me. With the small dip in fantasy points scored among quarterbacks, I expected a subsequent drop among wide receivers. That wasn’t the case.
Here is this same trend for wide receivers, just in line chart form. As you move from the left to the right on the chart, the game-time temperature increases. Overall, the cold weather doesn’t have a huge effect on wide receivers:
On to tight ends…
Like wide receivers, tight ends do not see much of a trend north or south of expectation in extremely cold weather.
Again, here’s that same trend for tight ends in line chart form:
And finally, defenses:
Frigid temperatures do not effect defensive fantasy scoring.
Overall, I think the cold weather is not a huge concern for the game in Minnesota. I’d be much more afraid of wind, but it’s currently forecasted to blow 10-15 miles per hour, which isn’t crucial. Maybe we lower expectations for Russell Wilson and Teddy Bridgewater slightly, but nothing extraordinary. If anything, the cold weather concerns should leave Wilson a bit lighter owned than he maybe should be in tournaments.
