Unfortunately, this will be the final Three Trends article of the NFL season.
I know, I know. I teared up a little, too. At least I’ll be able to get back to throwing my money away rostering J.B. Holmes in all of the wrong weeks in PGA DFS.
In all sincerity, I hope you got something out of this article every week and enjoyed reading it as half as much as I enjoyed writing it.
Here’s to looking forward to the offseason and getting prepared for the 2016 season after the May draft. Let’s get to the Three Most Important Trends for the Divisional Round.
1. Greg Olsen Taking Advantage of Plus Matchups
This idea may change if poor news continues to come out surrounding Rob Gronkowski and his right knee that needed treatment on Thursday, but I was expecting Greg Olsen to go lower owned than both Gronk and Travis Kelce this week. That may not be the case any longer.
Regardless, I think Olsen is the play at tight end this weekend. Seattle actually gave up +3.6 points over salary expectation to opposing tight ends on the year and finished the regular season ranked 26th in Football Outsiders DVOA vs. opposing tight ends. In the above trend are Olsen’s five previous matchups against teams that surrender greater than 3.5 points above expectation to tight ends. He’s beaten his salary-based (expected points) in every single one of those matchups.
Of course past results don’t always equate to future success and this is right at the intersection of “that’s interesting, but I’m not sure how predictive this data is.” Still, Seattle did finish in the top four in DVOA vs No. 1 and No. 2 wide receivers while permitting the fifth-most yards per reception (11.6) to opposing tight ends during the regular season. We could see a situation where Cam Newton’s boundary receivers are completely erased, forcing him to constantly pepper Greg Olsen with inside targets.
2. Michael Floyd’s Increased Role
You knew this was coming. I’ve had some Michael Floyd exposure nearly every week and have written about him in a positive tone since he re-surfaced in the Cardinals offense around Week 6. My Floyd love grew exponentially since he took over as Carson Palmer’s top target in their final five games. That’s right. From Week 13-17, Michael Floyd saw a higher percentage of Arizona’s targets (23.2%) than John Brown (20.9%) and Larry Fitzgerald (19.2%).
Floyd had five 100-plus yard receiving performances in his final eight active games, one of which (6-111) came against the Packers in Week 16. The only rub with Floyd is he’s not on the field full-time (he had a 62.8 percent snap share this season), but he was still easily Arizona’s best receiver in terms of fantasy production in the second half of the season. Floyd outscored Larry Fitzgerald and John Brown in five of Arizona’s final nine games, while missing one of those contests (Week 11). I’m expecting Floyd to be somewhere in the 18-25 percent ownership range in the Divisional Round.
3. Spencer Ware, Playing Time, and Perception
(Note: Spencer Ware’s player page does not include the Wild-Card Round.)
Here are Spencer Ware’s snap percentages since missing Week 15 (ribs): 10.7%, 45.6%, and 60.3% (Wild-Card Round). Over the past two games, Ware has out-touched Charcandrick West in each contest (32:23) and has the lead in red zone carries during that span (5:2). West is perceived to be the pass-game back, but in the Wild-Card Round Ware ran 12 pass routes against the Texans to West’s seven, per Pro Football Focus. West also only played 28.6 percent of snaps in the Wild-Card Round.
After David Johnson, who I expect to be over 60 percent owned, the running back landscape is abysmal again just like it was in the last weekend. It won’t feel great to roster Spencer Ware, but he does have 16 touches in back-to-back games and rushed for 16-76-1 and 16-67-1 in those two contests. From Week 10 on, only the Rams and the Vikings derived a higher percentage of their offensive touchdowns from rushing than the Chiefs (10-of-22 touchdowns, 45.5%). With Jeremy Maclin (ankle) at less than 100 percent, Kansas City will have to lean on their running game in New England and as Pat Thorman mentions here, no team plays slower than the Chiefs (31.1 seconds per snap). They will have to control the pace with Ware and a snail-paced attack on the road.
