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The perfect fantasy football draft strategy in 2024 redraft leagues is all about maximizing your team’s weekly ceiling and floor. Part of that is simply picking the right players – you can also check out my projections and rankings for help.
The other part is having a smart fantasy draft strategy and roster construction philosophy that considers where value is on the board so that you dynamically adapt as your drafts unfold. This article details what I’ve found to be the optimal fantasy football strategy for 2024 and which players to target as a result.
I’ll start by walking through the first six rounds of 2024 fantasy football drafts. You’ll notice I put a lot of emphasis on wide receiver strategy during these rounds. After that, I’ll show you how to build out the rest of your roster at each position.
(Note: Everything you’re about to read applies to traditional redraft formats that start one QB, are 10 or 12 teams and use half- or full-PPR scoring.)
2024 Fantasy Football Strategy
Round 1
Christian McCaffrey is the undisputed No. 1 overall pick. He outscored the WR1 by nearly three points per game in half-PPR formats and roughly one point per game in full-PPR formats, and he outscored the RB2 by over 100 points in both formats.
At picks 2-6, I prefer WRs over RBs. You can’t win your draft in the first few rounds, but you sure can lose it, and you’re more likely to lose it by exposing yourself to the heightened injury risk of RBs compared to WRs. Since the NFL switched to 17 games in 2021, here are the average missed games for startable players at each position (defined as top-36 RBs and WRs and top-12 QBs and TEs by ADP).
- RB: 3.4
- TE: 2.9
- WR: 2.5
- QB: 2.3
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Also, the WRs have higher ceiling/floor combos. Below are their three-year highs/lows in PPR points.
- WR1 CeeDee Lamb: 405/233
- WR2 Tyreek Hill: 378/299
- WR3 Ja’Marr Chase: 307/246
- WR4 Justin Jefferson: 365/204
- WR5 Amon-Ra St. Brown: 332/223
- RB2 Breece Hall: 289/117
- RB3 Bijan Robinson: 252/252
In fact, the RB who has gotten the closest to scoring on par with the top-five WRs isn’t Hall or Robinson, but Jonathan Taylor (377/156). Taylor has the best offensive line and the least competition for snaps of the three, so I don’t mind taking him as high as RB2.
My tiers for the top-10 picks are: (1) McCaffrey, (2) Lamb, Hill, Chase, St. Brown, Jefferson, (3) Hall, Robinson, Taylor.
If you’re in a 12-team league and drafting 11th or 12th, I think the best course of action is to go balanced with one RB and one WR in the first two rounds. There’s a clear drop-off in value at both positions after the top 10, but by being balanced, you allow yourself to more readily take advantage of value as it presents itself in Rounds 3-4 and on, which will be crucial since drafting late typically already puts you at a disadvantage in terms of expected fantasy points.
- In my second WR tier, you find only Puka Nacua and A.J. Brown. So, I suggest prioritizing WR in Round 1, as there should be a wider selection of RBs to choose from when you’re picking again in Round 2.
- Among RBs outside the top four, I prefer Travis Etienne to Jahmyr Gibbs, Saquon Barkley, and Derrick Henry. Gibbs is amazing, but he’s still part of a committee and could be more volatile than you’d like for the RB5. Henry and Barkley are fine RB1 choices, but if we’re nitpicking, they get dinged a bit for age and for switching teams.
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