Sean Koerner — Fantasy Pros’ 4x Most Accurate Fantasy Football Ranker — breaks down his 2024 Best Ball QB tiers and rankings.
Now that the draft is over, schedules are out, and rosters have mostly settled, it’s time to start making initial fantasy football rankings and projections for each position.
I think it’s key to start position by position and identify value within a position before forming my overall draft strategy. Therefore let’s take a deep dive at my initial QB ranks within the context of the position and once I have every position mapped out it’ll be easier to flesh out my overall strategy for the 2024 NFL season.
If you’re new to the Best Ball format on sites like Underdog Fantasy, DraftKings and Drafters, it’s imperative to know that stacking is the best way to raise the overall ceiling for your team and set you up for success.
The QB position is such a critical part of stacks that I tend to let the position come to me. I either draft QBs that fall to a range in which they offer value or tend to reach for a quarterback if I have a couple of viable stacking partners to go alongside them.
At the same time, we want to target QBs that offer spike week potential, so I have come up with a metric to measure roughly how many Best Ball Points Added each QB provided last season. Take a look:
Here, you can read more about Best Ball Points Added.
Without further ado, let’s get to my initial 2024 Best Ball Quarterback Tiers!
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Best Ball Fantasy QB Tiers, Rankings
Tier 1
- Josh Allen
- Jalen Hurts
- Lamar Jackson
- Patrick Mahomes
You could make a strong case for Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, or Lamar Jackson to be the first QB off the board, but Patrick Mahomes should typically be the fourth QB selected. Last season, he ranked as QB7 in overall fantasy points but only QB13 in Best Ball score. This is because, aside from a Week 7 eruption, Mahomes was more of a high-floor QB without many spiked weeks. Rashee Rice’s potential suspension due to legal troubles could not only hurt Mahomes’ weekly upside but also make potential stacks tricky. Ideally, if you are taking a QB early, you’ll want it to be one of the top three then Mahomes.
Josh Allen might take a bit of a hit with both Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis on new teams, but he still has enough surrounding talent to post elite numbers thanks to his enormous rushing upside. He has scored six or more rushing TDs in all six of his seasons, with no signs of slowing down, considering he had a career-high 15 last year.
Jalen Hurts has the most bankable rushing TD upside thanks to the controversial “tush push,” but there have been rumors of Saquon Barkley taking some reps as the primary ball carrier in that formation. This is something to monitor closely as it significantly impacts the projected rushing TDs for both Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley.
Lamar Jackson has the fewest concerns of any QB in this tier and could benefit from opposing defenses now having to worry about Derrick Henry in the backfield, opening up more passing and running lanes for Jackson. Considering you can make a case that he’s the no. 1 quarterback while his ADP is closer to 3, makes him the best target from this top QB tier.
Tier 2
- Dak Prescott
- Anthony Richardson
- C.J. Stroud
- Joe Burrow
Even if you miss out on a tier 1 QB, do not fear, there are a handful of others passers capable of becoming QB1 in 2024.
Anthony Richardson flashed his upside by averaging 6.4 Best Ball Points Added a game in his only two appearances. That would have ranked 3rd in BBPA per game…the problem was that he only played two full games, as he suffered a season-ending injury in Week 5. Injuries typically come down to luck, so we can’t just assume Richardson will be a huge injury risk going forward, but it does have to be a concern considering his playing style and the fact that he exited three of four games. He also entered the NFL as a pretty raw prospect, having had merely one season in college with 70+ pass attempts. We might not see the year two leap from him in 2024 given how few reps he saw at the NFL as a rookie. However, his skill set gives him the upside of being the QB1 overall this year if he can stay healthy. He has the widest range of outcomes in this tier and might be worth the gamble, so long as you’re willing to roll the dice.
C.J. Stroud ranked 9th in Best Ball Points Added per game as a rookie despite never having all of his starting receivers healthy at the same time. In fact, in the 9 games where both Nico Collins and Tank Dell were active, Stroud averaged 5.0 BBPA, which would have ranked 5th on the season. Not only are Collins and Dell healthy heading into the 2024 season, but he also now has Stefon Diggs in the mix. The sky is the limit for Stroud heading into year two.
Joe Burrow is a QB I’m still very interested in buying, as he enters his prime with one of the best WR duos in the game in Ja’Marr Chase/Tee Higgins. However, his lack of rushing upside (only rushed for 10+ yards in 2-of-9 starts) is beginning to make him more of a high-floor option, failing to provide as many spiked weeks as you would like in Best Ball. His BBPA/g ranked 18th last season, considerably lower than backup Jake Browning’s BBPA/g, who ranked 11th. Burrow is the type of QB you need to stack with 1-3 pass catchers in order to raise your team’s ceiling. But you also have to consider how expensive that will be in terms of opportunity costs, making him a tough purchase no matter how good he will be in real life.
Dak Prescott’s ADP is QB9 right now and is being selected roughly 40 picks after Anthony Richardson comes off the board, making him the clear value to target from this tier. He ranked 5th in BBPA/g last season and rushed for 200+ yards for the first time since his devastating 2020 ankle injury. The Cowboys offense may lean on Dak even more this year following Tony Pollard’s departure while turning the clock back with Zeke Elliott as the team’s lead back. Anytime you select CeeDee Lamb in the first round, you may want to reach a bit on Dak in order to complete the stack. If you don’t land Lamb with a top 5 pick, you should still try to target Dak in this range as the best value of Tier 2.
Tier 3
- Kyler Murray
- Jayden Daniels
- Brock Purdy
- Jordan Love
- Caleb Williams
- Justin Herbert
- Trevor Lawrence
Kyler Murray is being selected as the QB7 in most drafts, which seems like a reach considering he might not offer the same rushing upside pre-2022 ACL injury. While I do love his upside with an elite WR in Marvin Harrison Jr. joining the mix, I still prefer taking him if he falls outside of the top 8.
Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams are the only rookie QBs that appear as locks to start Week 1, at least at the time of writing. Daniels has the clearest path to weekly QB1 upside due to his rushing ability. However, Caleb is in one of the better situations we’ve seen in quite some time for a rookie quarterback. D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze combine to make one of the better receiving trios heading into the 2024 season, and Caleb does offer rushing upside that may be similar to someone like Patrick Mahomes. However, I still lean toward taking Brock Purdy ahead of him.
Jordan Love’s ADP of QB10 might be a bit of a reach, but I’m high on him entering his second full season. Even better for our best ball purposes, he has a ton of great, cheap stacking options when you do draft him.
Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence are two of the better QBs who are about to enter the prime of their careers. They might be your last shot at landing a QB with a decent shot at a top-5 BBPA season.
Tier 4
- Jared Goff
- Tua Tagovailoa
- Daniel Jones
- Deshaun Watson
- Kirk Cousins
- Aaron Rodgers
Jared Goff and Tua Tagovailoa are capable of 300+ yard passing games in efficient, high-scoring offenses but both teams tend to lean on their RBs near the goal line and neither passer offers much rushing upside. Both factors tend to make them high-floor options that pair well with a more volatile QB. I’m willing to target either QB if I land one or two of their elite stacking options earlier in the draft.
Daniel Jones’ ADP is one of the more puzzling ones at QB29. Yes, he’s a bad real-life QB. Yes, the health (or lack thereof) may lower his rushing upside or even prevent him from suiting up in Week 1. Yes, Drew Lock could potentially replace him at some point. But I still don’t think he should be falling to use this low. He still has enough rushing upside to produce plenty of spiked weeks and the fact that he’s a very volatile QB one week to the next makes him even more valuable in Best Ball. Plus, he will have arguably the best pass-catching weapon of his career in Malik Nabers. To be clear, I would not draft Daniel Jones this early, as that kills all the value provided of potentially being able to land him outside the top 25, but I think he’s a no-brainer selection if he’s still available after Tier 5 is off the board.
Kirk Cousins is the most enticing of the remaining 3 QBs in this tier. I’m not too concerned about his Achilles injury considering he’s a pocket passer who doesn’t typically lean on his legs to extend plays. He has some great stacking options in Drake London and Kyle Pitts as he could help both players have career seasons. Cousins is a solid QB2 to add later in drafts if you’re looking for a reliable weekly floor/ceiling combo.
Tier 5
- Geno Smith
- Matthew Stafford
- Baker Mayfield
I’m typically avoiding this tier since Daniel Jones is often available after these guys are already off the board. However, all three QBs have great stacking options, so if I’m able to grab 1-2 of their WRs earlier in the draft, I’m more likely to take one of these QBs to pair with them.
Tier 6
- J.J. McCarthy
- Will Levis
- Bryce Young
- Russell Wilson
- Bo Nix
- Drake Maye
This is the first tier in which we might not be able to project most of these QBs for 14+ starts. The safest bet is Will Levis, who should start Week 1 for the Titans and will likely have a very long leash.
Russell Wilson is projected to be the Week 1 starter for the Steelers but will have Justin Fields waiting behind him. He carries some potential risk of being benched in-season and might not offer enough upside to warrant taking a chance on him.
There is a very real chance Bryce Young has a year-two breakout under new HC Dave Canales. He has too much pedigree and surrounding talent that we can’t write him off just yet. We’ve seen QBs like Josh Allen/Trevor Lawrence break out after a disappointing rookie season. He’s priced efficiently at QB25 right now.
Bo Nix might have the best chances of the three rookie QBs in this tier to be a Week 1 starter. Nix started 61 games in college, which was the most ever by a QB. It means he has plenty of experience and might not need as many reps to adjust at the next level. He also has the weakest competition against Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson. Based on his odds of starting 14+ games, he’s worth taking at QB31 when it makes sense given your draft.
J.J. McCarthy offers the most upside of the rookie class in this tier as he has Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson at his disposal. We can’t bank on him being the Week 1 starter and there is a very real chance Sam Darnold ends up starting 4+ games before potentially giving way to McCarthy. He has a fairly low floor as a result. However, with most of these rookies, we can expect them to become their team’s starter at some point in the season and start every game from there so long as they’re healthy. The first 4-5 weeks are the easiest to find replacement value (no teams on BYE, the league is the healthiest it will be, etc). So we don’t need to dock them too much just because they may not start for the first few games.
Drake Maye offers the lowest floor of the tier as the Patriots are still in the middle of a rebuild, and the front office may not want to throw Maye to the wolves right away given the offensive line issues and lack of pass-catching talent. Don’t be surprised if Jacoby Brissett ends up starting most of the games for the Patriots in 2024 while they allow Maye to develop behind the scenes. His ADP will rise/drop over the next couple of months based on how he’s looking in practice/training camp.
Tier 7
Derek Carr
Despite finishing the season as QB18 in overall fantasy points, Derek Carr only finished as the QB30 in BBPA. This means that while he may have been providing 10-15 fantasy points most weeks, he rarely produced 20+ point weeks (3 times) and failed to post 25+ points in a single game. Derek Carr is the last QB who we can safely project for 14+ starts (when healthy), but should only be drafted at QB27 if you need that type of safety net because you loaded up at other positions earlier in the draft and/or need to pair him with 1-2 highly volatile QBs.
Tier 8
- Gardner Minshew
- Justin Fields
We can’t project either of these QBs for 10+ starts this season, but both have unique paths to crushing their ADPs which currently sit outside the top 30. Gardner Minshew’s path is pretty straightforward: he wins the starting job in training camp/preseason and plays well enough to start 14+ games this year. This scenario is possible thanks to the Falcons selecting Michael Penix Jr. with the 8th overall pick. Penix was likely going to the Raiders if he fell further, but once he was off the board, the Raiders were forced to settle on Minshew or Aidan O’Connell for the upcoming season. AOC flashed at times last year and has a very real shot of becoming the Week 1 starter or replacing Minshew mid-season.
Justin Fields will likely open the season as Russell Wilson’s backup, but there is a chance replaces Wilson at some point. Fields has top-10 upside when he’s starting, so he makes for an interesting dice roll at QB30 and has one of the widest range of outcomes of any QB this season.
Tier 8
- Aidan O’Connell
- Sam Darnold
- Jacoby Brissett
- Sam Howell
- Drew Lock
Sam Darnold and Jacoby Brissett may only get a few starts to begin the season, which happen to be some of the least valuable starts for Best Ball. However, Aidan O’Connell, Sam Howell, and Drew Lock have the potential to become the new starting QB for their team in-season and offer more potential for starts in the latter half of the season, which are much more valuable when it comes to Best Ball.
Tier 9
- Marcus Mariota
- Joe Flacco
- Jake Browning
- Jameis Winston
- Jarrett Stidham
Mariota could start Week 1 if Daniels isn’t ready and the same goes with Jarrett Stidham if Bo Nix remains the backup, but most of these QBs will be strict backups who need the starter to miss time. Still, they offer enough upside to take a late-round flier on.
I think you can make some sneaky stacks with the Seahawks/Colts/Bengals if you happen to miss out on pairing their stud WRs with Geno Smith/Anthony Richardson/Joe Burrow. In those situations, you can pair them with Sam Howell/Joe Flacco/Jake Browning. If any of those QBs end up starting 5+ games it will give your team a very high ceiling considering how cheap that stack was. I think the best stack like that would be Flacco/Pittman/Downs and/or Mitchell/Pierce. Anthony Richardson has quite a bit of injury risk and Joe Flacco would not only replace him but elevate the ceiling of all Colts pass catchers, too.
