Wells Fargo Championship PGA DFS Stats Preview: Course Fits, GPP Picks, and Values

The PGA TOUR season ramps back up this week for another “designated event.” After two weaker-field events in the Zurich Classic and the Mexico Open, most of the best players in the world will head to historic Quail Hollow, which was the site of last year’s Presidents Cup.

Quail Hollow is a par 71, measuring 7,521 yards, that features Bermuda-grass greens. The tree-lined, parkland-style course can play quite difficult and features one of the most difficult three-hole stretches in golf known as “The Green Mile,” which makes up holes 16-18 and features two mammoth par 4s and a 221-yard par 3. All three holes have an average score over par, and water is in play in each of the last five holes on the course.

The field is excellent this week, with 156 golfers teeing it up. Being a designated event, very few players will skip the Wells Fargo Championship this week. However, both Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler will be taking the week off to rest prior to the PGA Championship.

For GPP contests on DraftKings, I will be breaking down the key stats (past 24 rounds) and selecting golfers from different price tiers to provide flexibility for a DFS lineup.

And if you missed it, we added two new metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.

The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.

For large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

This analysis may reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.

Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes gained: Approach will be extremely important this week as second shots at Quail Hollow can be very difficult. In 2021, winner Rory McIlroy gained 5.3 strokes on approach.

High-end target: Xander Schauffele — $10,700 (1st in Strokes Gained: Approach)
Mid-range target: Rickie Fowler — $8,800 (5th in Strokes Gained: Approach)
Value target: Aaron Rai — $6,900 (16th in Strokes Gained: Approach)

Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee

Quail Hollow is a long course on which it is important to play from the fairway. Both distance and accuracy are important, as shorter tee shots will result in approach shots from 200+ yards. With most of the holes heavily tree-lined, errant drives will create some real trouble for the players.

High-end target: Viktor Hovland — $9,200 (2nd Strokes Gained: Off the Tee)
Mid-range target: Cameron Young — $8,700 (8th Strokes Gained: Off the Tee)
Value target: Tyler Duncan — $6,500 (14th Strokes Gained: Off the Tee)

Proximity: 200+

The length of Quail Hollow is a major factor this week and will result in some very long approach shots. Additionally, three of the four par 3s are over 200 yards.

High-end target: Patrick Cantlay — $10,500 (1st Proximity: 200+)
Mid-range target: Cameron Young — $8,700 (5th Proximity: 200+)
Value target: Pierceson Coody — $6,500 (10th Proximity: 200+)

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)

Strokes Gained: Putting has historically graded out as the most important statistic at Quail Hollow. While it isn’t always predictable, I do want to have it in the model to bump up golfers who prefer to putt on Bermudagrass.

High-end target: Jordan Spieth — $9,600 (13th Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)
Mid-range target: Sam Burns — $8,600 (3rd Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)
Value target: Justin Suh — $7,100 (16th Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)

Par 4: 450-500

Quail Hollow features five par 4s measuring between 450-500 yards. The holes are among the most difficult on the course and will go a long way in separating contenders from the pack this week.

High-end target: Jordan Spieth — $9,600 (1st in Par 4: 450-500)
Mid-range target: Jason Day — $9,000 (2nd in Par 4: 450-500)
Value target: Justin Suh — $7,100 (9th in Par 4: 450-500)

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For GPP contests on DraftKings, I will be breaking down the key stats (past 24 rounds) and selecting golfers from different price tiers to provide flexibility for a DFS lineup.

And if you missed it, we added two new metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.

The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.

For large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.