Valero Texas Open PGA DFS Stats Preview: Course Fits, GPP Picks, and Values

As players and fans gear up for the Masters, the PGA TOUR stays in Texas following the Match Play for the Valero Texas Open.

TPC San Antonio is a 7,494 yards par 72 and features Bermuda grass greens. The main defense of the course is the weather. The course can play pretty tough, like we saw last year when J.J. Spaun won at -13. If the wind stays dormant, expect the winner to be in the 20-under range.

There are 140 golfers in the field this week. The field is what you would expect this week, with many golfers sitting out prior to the Masters. The string of designated events in the early part of the season all but ensured that none of the world’s top players would be playing this week.

For GPP contests on DraftKings, I will be breaking down the key stats (past 24 rounds) and selecting golfers from different price tiers to provide flexibility for a DFS lineup.

For large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Also, our new Perfect% metric is a great data point to use with your roster construction.

If you missed it, we added two new metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.

The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.

This analysis may reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.

Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

Use Underdog Fantasy promo code LABS to get a $100 sign-up bonus on any Underdog pick’em contests for the Valero Texas Open.

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach is the best measure of current form. With plenty on the line this week golfers will be looking to either punch a ticket to Augusta or round into great form heading into the Masters, so this metric should tell us a pretty good story about where a player is heading to San Antonio.

High-end target: Rickie Fowler— $10,200 (1st SG: Approach)
Mid-range target: Ben Martin— $7,100 (7th SG: Approach)
Value target: David Lingmerth— $7,100 (14th SG: Approach)

Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee

Off-the-Tee is statistically more important at TPC San Antonio than TOUR average. Spaun ranked 11th in SG: OTT last year. Prior to Jordan Spieth’s victory in 2021, the previous four winners of the Valero Texas Open had ranked eighth, fourth, ninth and fourth in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee for the week. Hitting the ball long and straight will be a major factor this week.

High-end target: Corey Conners — $10,100 (6th SG: Off the Tee)
Mid-range target: Cameron Davis— $8,300 (9th SG: Off the Tee
Value target: MJ Daffue— $7,000 (8th SG: Off the Tee)

Opportunities Gained

Scores at TPC San Antonio can get pretty low depending on the wind. If conditions are calm, it may turn into a bit of a birdie-fest. In that case, golfers who give themselves the most chances at birdies will be in the driver’s seat.

High-end target: Rickie Fowler— $10,200 (5th Opportunities Gained)
Mid-range target: Cameron Davis— $8,300 (17th Opportunities Gained)
Value target: Charley Hoffman — $7,000 (11th Opportunities Gained)

Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking

Ball-striking combines off-the-tee and approach. Golfers coming into the week striking it well from tee-to-green will be in a great spot to compete this week.

The rough can be penal at times around TPC San Antonio, so driving accuracy is important. At over 7,400 yards, the course isn’t short, so the driving distance aspect of this stat will be a factor, as well.

High-end target: Rickie Fowler— $10,200 (3rd Strokes Gained: Ball Striking)
Mid-range target: Ben Martin— $7,100 (7th Strokes Gained: Ball Striking)
Value target: Ryan Palmer— $7,100 (15th Strokes Gained: Ball Striking)

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)

While a hot putter is always tough to predict, it is still important to factor Bermuda grass putting into the stat model this week.

The four most recent winners (Landry, Conners, Spieth, and Spaun) all prefer to putt on Bermudagrass statistically. A combination of iron play and putting were the recipe for these golfers en route to their respective victories.

High-end target: Taylor Montgomery — $9,900 (1st Strokes Gained: Putting Bermudagrass)
Mid-range target: Andrew Putnam— $7,800 (4th Strokes Gained: Putting Bermudagrass)
Value target: Nick Taylor— $7,600 (11th Strokes Gained: Putting Bermudagrass)

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