2023 Super Bowl Odds & Best Bets: Don’t Count Out the Dallas Cowboys, Los Angeles Chargers

After providing an in-depth NFL playoff preview of all 14 teams earlier this week, Nick Galaida is back to look at 2023 Super Bowl odds and give you his four best bets to raise the Lombardi Trophy in Glendale, Arizona on Feb. 12. Find out why he thinks the Dallas Cowboys and Los Angeles Chargers are worthy of bettors’ attention before Super Wild Card Weekend kicks off.

2023 NFL Playoffs – Super Bowl Odds

• Kansas City Chiefs +350
• Buffalo Bills +420
• San Francisco 49ers +500
• Philadelphia Eagles +550
• Cincinnati Bengals +850
• Dallas Cowboys +1400
• Los Angeles Chargers +2500
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2800
• Minnesota Vikings +3500
• Baltimore Ravens +4400
• Jacksonville Jaguars +5000
• New York Giants +6600
• Miami Dolphins +6500
• Seattle Seahawks +8500

Odds are courtesy of Scores And Odds’ NFL Futures odds comparison. 

Kansas City Chiefs +350 to Win Super Bowl

Following a loss at home to the Buffalo Bills in Week 6, the Kansas City Chiefs went 10-1, with their lone defeat in that span coming by three points to the Cincinnati Bengals on the road. Against the Bengals, starting left guard Joe Thuney did not play. His backup, Nick Allegretti, allowed four quarterback pressures, two quarterback hits, and a sack in the loss – something that did not get talked about in the national media. Per ESPN, Thuney had the highest pass block win rate of all qualified guards in 2022.

Heading into the postseason, Thuney and the rest of the offensive line are healthy and ready to protect Patrick Mahomes, who finished the regular season as the league-leader in passing yards, passing touchdowns, and QBR. Across the final 11 games of the regular season, Kansas City led the NFL in offensive EPA and never scored fewer than 24 points. Outside of right tackle, there is no discernable weakness for this unit.

The return of rookie cornerback Trent McDuffie in Week 9 changed the entire trajectory of this defense. From Week 2 to Week 8, with McDuffie on the sidelines, the Chiefs’ defense ranked 22nd in EPA overall and 24th in dropback EPA. From Week 9 to Week 18, Kansas City ranked 10th in EPA overall, and 9th in dropback EPA.

Having the benefit of an extra week of rest with a bye before playing either the Los Angeles Chargers or Jacksonville Jaguars, the Chiefs are well-positioned to earn a trip to the AFC Championship Game, where they will likely be favored against whoever they play. Betting on the favorite in the AFC is not the sexiest of predictions, but the short odds are warranted given the talent, health, and balance on both sides of the ball – Kansas City is a good bet to be playing football on February 12 at State Farm Stadium.

San Francisco 49ers +500 to Win Super Bowl

After losing to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 7 at home, the San Francisco 49ers won each of their final 10 regular season games en route to clinching the NFC West division title and the 2-seed in the NFC playoff bracket.

The only significant question mark on San Francisco’s roster is the quarterback position. Per CBS, rookie quarterbacks are 9-18 in the playoffs since 1983, an uninspiring statistic for a team led by Brock Purdy, who has only 170 career pass attempts under his belt. Still, Purdy proved in the regular season that he is more than capable of doing what is needed of him for this team to win games. Following the loss of Jimmy Garoppolo, Purdy posted a 13-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio, with three wins over eventual playoff teams. Purdy struggled under pressure during the latter portion of the regular season, but he was excellent when kept clean and had a 4-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio on throws 20-plus yards down-the-field, proving that he can do more than check the ball down on short routes. Playing behind an offensive line that finished the regular season fourth in pass-blocking grade, per Pro Football Focus, Purdy is likely to outperform the doom-and-gloom historical stats of young quarterbacks in the postseason from the last 40 years.

The impact of Christian McCaffrey can also not be overstated. Prior to acquiring him from the Carolina Panthers, the 49ers run game ranked 26th in DVOA, per David Lombardi. In 11 games after his arrival, San Francisco’s run game ranked 3rd in DVOA. Having a skilled running back who is adept on the ground and as a pass-catcher is one more lethal weapon for this offense, which features an additional three dynamic pass-catchers – Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and Deebo Samuel.

Defensively, San Francisco allowed the fewest points per game, fewest yards per game, fewest rush yards per carry, and led the NFL in both EPA and DVOA. On Tuesday, linebackers Dre Greenlaw and Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles returned to practice. Assuming that both players suit-up on Saturday, cornerback Emmanuel Moseley will be the only notable injury for the 49ers on this side of the ball. Since Moseley last played in Week 5, this unit ranks 3rd among all teams in EPA overall and 8th in dropback EPA.

San Francisco is the most talented team in the NFC, and their good health relative to their peers in the conference makes them a legitimate Super Bowl threat. There is no such thing as an easy win this time of the year, but the 49ers are heavy favorites over the Seattle Seahawks in the opening round, and will have a rest advantage over their opponent in the divisional round, assuming they make it that far. There are no excuses for this team to fall short of the NFC championship game – San Francisco is the team that bettors should be investing in on this side of the bracket.

Dallas Cowboys +1400 to Win Super Bowl

The Dallas Cowboys are 0-7 all-time against Tom Brady, but that should not dissuade bettors from taking a longshot stab on America’s Team in the futures market ahead of their Monday Night Football showdown at Raymond James Stadium. From Week 7 to Week 17, with Dak Prescott on the field in games that mattered for the Cowboys, the offense ranked 6th in EPA and the defense ranked 4th in EPA. Dallas and San Francisco were the only two teams in the NFL ranked in the top-six on both sides of the ball in EPA during that stretch of time.

Heading into the divisional round, Head Coach Mike McCarthy said that he expects to have linebacker Leighton Vander Esch, defensive tackle Johnathan Hankins, center Tyler Biadasz, and cornerback DaRon Bland available, commenting that “everything is looking up” regarding the aforementioned players dealing with injuries.

If Prescott and company are able to take care of business against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday, they will likely travel to play a familiar foe in the divisional round – the Philadelphia Eagles. Though the Eagles have the benefit of a bye week in preparation for that contest, injuries to Jalen Hurts, Lane Johnson, and Avonte Maddox cast doubt as to how healthy the regular season NFC champions will be for that potential matchup. Dallas is the best dark-horse investment in the NFC this January.

Los Angeles Chargers +2500 to Win Super Bowl

If the Chiefs do not represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, there is a real possibility that it will be Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers. Other than left tackle Rashawn Slater being on injured reserve, this group has their full complement of talent available for the first time since the opening month of the regular season. If the Chargers are able to defeat the Jacksonville Jaguars in the wild-card round, Slater, who was designated to return from injured reserve on Monday, could return for a divisional round matchup against Kansas City.

From Week 12 to Week 18, the Chargers ranked 12th in offensive EPA and 5th in defensive EPA. In two matchups against the Chiefs during the regular season, the Chargers lost 27-24 and 30-27, despite holding a 10-point second-half lead in the first contest and a seven-point lead in the rematch. Facing a familiar intra-division rival for the third time in the same season, Los Angeles is a legitimate threat to make a Cinderella run to Glendale, Arizona in February if they can get past Jacksonville this weekend.