The PGA TOUR makes it return this week with the Sentry Tournament of Champions at the Kapalua Plantation Course in Maui. Kapalua is a unique par 73 measuring 7,515 yards.
The Tournament of Champions is a no-cut event and usually plays pretty easy. Five of the past six winners have finished with a score of -22 or better, and last year’s champion Cameron Smith set the tournament record by finishing at -34. Wide fairways and soft greens typically make the event so scoreable, but coastal wind and elevation changes can occasionally make some shots difficult.
The field will feature 40 of the world’s top golfers. All of the winners on the PGA TOUR from last season in addition to the 30 golfers that made it to East Lake (top 30 in the FedEx Cup standings), have received an invite. The only player who qualified but will not play is Rory McIlroy.
For GPP contests on DraftKings. I will be breaking down the key stats (past 24 rounds) and selecting golfers from different price tiers to provide flexibility for a DFS lineup.
For large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Don’t forget about the other tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, such as the Trends tool and PGA Correlation Dashboard.
If you missed it, we added two new metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.
The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.
This analysis may reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
Strokes Gained: Approach
With Greens in Regulation (GIR) percentages extremely high at Kapalua (78.9%), just getting on the putting surface won’t cut it. In a very low-scoring event, golfers will need to have their irons and wedges dialed in to provide scoring opportunities.
- High-end target: Xander Schauffele – $9,500 (6th SG: APP)
- Mid-range target: Tom Kim – $8,700 (1st SG: APP)
- Value target: Tom Hoge – $6,500 (2nd SG: APP)
Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
With fairways being wide and easy to hit, bombers should be able to let it rip off the tee this week. Golfers with a strong off-the-tee game should end up with a wedge in their hand for their approach shot which will give them an advantage on the shorter hitters. Although Cameron Smith isn’t known for SG: OTT, he led the field last season on his way to victory (+4.0).
- High-end target: Scottie Scheffler – $10,300 (2nd Strokes Gained: Off the Tee)
- Mid-range target: Sungjae Im – $8,300 (1st Strokes Gained: Off the Tee)
- Value target: Luke List – $6,500 (12th Strokes Gained: Off the Tee)
Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass (Velcro)
The Bermudagrass greens at Kapalua are notoriously slow. In a low-scoring event, golfers will need to make a lot of putts to win, and those who prefer putting on slow Bermuda should have the advantage. There has been a good deal of elite putters (Smith, Reed, Spieth) that have had great success at Kapalua in the past.
- High-end target: Patrick Cantlay – $9,700 (18th SG: Putting Bermuda and Velcro)
- Mid-range target: Jordan Spieth – $8,200 (1st SG: Putting Bermuda and Velcro)
- Value target: J.T. Poston – $6,800 (5th SG: Putting Bermuda and Velcro)
Proximity 100-125
With a good deal of short par 4s on the course and easy-to-hit fairways, golfers will have wedges in their hands looking to attack pins. Historically, wedge play has been a major factor in determining a winner in Maui, and I expect that to continue in the 2023 edition.
- High-end target: Justin Thomas – $9,900 (6th in Proximity 100-125)
- Mid-range target: Russell Henley – $7,700 (2nd in Proximity 100-125)
- Value target: Tom Hoge – $6,500 (1st in Proximity 100-125)
Strokes Gained: Par 5
The Plantation Course at Kapalua presents an uncommon five par 5s, and with the par 3s being relatively tough at this track, taking advantage of all of the par 5s will be crucial this week. Historically, par-5 scoring has been more indicative of the winner at this tournament than par-3 or par-4 scoring. The player who posts the lowest cumulative score on the par 5s holes will put themselves in a good position to win come Sunday.
- High-end target: Patrick Cantlay – $9,700 (2nd Strokes Gained: Par 5)
- Mid-range target: Sungjae Im – $8,300 (1st Strokes Gained: Par 5)
- Value target: Aaron Wise – $7,400 (9th Strokes Gained: Par 5)
