RBC Heritage PGA DFS Stats Preview: Course Fits, GPP Picks, and Values

Just a short two-hour drive from Augusta National, the PGA TOUR heads to Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island, S.C. to play the 2022 RBC Heritage. Hilton Head Island is a golfer’s paradise, and Harbour Town is one of the most beautiful and scenic courses on the PGA TOUR.

Harbour Town Golf Links is a par 71 measuring 7,121 yards and features Bermuda-grass greens. A Pete Dye design, the course is heavily tree-lined and features small greens and many dog legs, protecting it from “bomb and gauge” type golfers.

The field is loaded this week with 132 golfers. While last year was quite possibly the best field in RBC Heritage history, the event will take another big leap forward in 2023. This week’s tournament is yet another designated event, meaning there is a $20 million prize pool.

With golfers only able to skip one designated event per season, all the big names are in attendance, other than Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama, Jason Day, and Will Zalatoris.

For GPP contests on DraftKings, I will be breaking down the key stats (past 24 rounds) and selecting golfers from different price tiers to provide flexibility for a DFS lineup.

And if you missed it, we added two new metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.

The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.

For large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

This analysis may reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.

Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach is exceedingly important this week. The greens at Harbour Town are about half the size of the PGA TOUR average and feature the second-smallest greens on PGA TOUR. Typical of a Pete Dye design, golfers will pay the price for missed greens.

High-end target: Scottie Scheffler — $11,000 (4th SG: Approach)
Mid-range target: Rickie Fowler — $7,600 (6th SG: Approach)
Value target: Ben Martin — $7,100 (13th SG: Approach)

Fairways Gained

The fairways at Harbour Town are tree-lined and feature many doglegs. Bombers tend to struggle at the course because it will force layups and not allow long drivers to overpower it. Accuracy is far more important than power this week.

High-end target: Collin Morikawa — $10,000 (3rd Fairways Gained)
Mid-range target: Russell Henley— $7,800 (1st Fairways Gained)
Value target: Tyler Duncan — $6,800 (5th Fairways Gained)

Total Strokes Gained at Pete Dye Designs

Pete Dye specialists tend to play very well at Harbour Town. Si Woo Kim, Matt Kuchar, Jim Furyk, and Webb Simpson are all Pete Dye specialists who have had great success at Harbour Town. It is likely we see some more Pete Dye specialists near the top of the leaderboard this week.

High-end target: Scottie Scheffler — $11,000 (3rd Strokes Gained: Pete Dye)
Mid-range target: Shane Lowry — $8,300 (1st Strokes Gained: Pete Dye)
Value target: Erik Van Rooyen — $6,700 (9th Strokes Gained: Pete Dye)

Greens in Regulation Gained

The recipe for success at Harbour Town Golf Links is hitting fairways and greens. Missing either will prove to be consequential, and golfers must be in total control of the golf ball to win here.

High-end target: Collin Morikawa — $10,000 (8th Greens in Regulation Gained)
Mid-range target: Corey Conners — $7,800 (4th Greens in Regulation Gained)
Value target: Tyler Duncan — $6,800 (9th Greens in Regulation Gained)

Strokes Gained: Short Game (Bermuda)

Strokes gained: Short Game factors in both around the green and putting. With many green-side bunkers and tricky green complexes, both statistics will be important this week. Past winners such as Jim Furyk, Wes Bryan, and Webb Simpson highlight how crucial the short game skillset is around Harbour Town.

High-end target: Jon Rahm— $11,200 (2nd Strokes Gained: Short Game Bermuda)
Mid-range target: Tommy Fleetwood— $8,100 (4th Strokes Gained: Short Game Bermuda)
Value target: Andrew Putnam— $6,700 (10th Strokes Gained: Short Game Bermuda)

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