PGA Championship DFS Stats Preview: Course Fits, GPP Picks, and Values

The second major of the 2023 season is upon us. The world’s best players will tee it up this week at Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, New York, to compete for the Wanamaker Trophy.

The last time we saw Oak Hill host a major championship was the PGA Championship in 2013. Since then, the course has undergone a complete renovation. Andrew Green took over the project with the goal of making the course play as similar as possible to the way Donald Ross intended when he designed the East Course in 1925.

Oak Hill has been stretched out quite a bit, and a lot of trees have been removed from the property. The greens have been renovated to include modern technology to keep the course dry. The around the green areas have also been shaved down to make missing the greens quite penal and allow for more short game creativity.

Oak Hill Country Club is a par 70, measuring 7,394 yards, and features Bentgrass greens. The course will play long for a par 70, and the greens measure in at 4,500 square feet. Water will be in play for 6 of the 18 holes, and there are 78 bunkers on the course.

The field this week will consist of 156 players, including 20 PGA professionals and fifteen past champions. All of the top players will be here gunning for the glory of a major championship, with the exception of Tiger Woods and Will Zalatoris as they recover from their respective injuries.

For GPP contests on DraftKings, I will be breaking down the key stats (past 24 rounds) and selecting golfers from different price tiers to provide flexibility for a DFS lineup.

And if you missed it, we added two new metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.

The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.

For large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

This analysis may reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.

Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

Strokes Gained: Approach

Oak Hill will play as a true all-around test of golf for the world’s best. The run-off areas by the green have been made more difficult, and the second shots into the greens will be a challenge. It takes a strong approach play to win a major championship.

High-end target: Jon Rahm — $10,700 (1st in Strokes Gained: Approach)
Mid-range target: Xander Schauffele — $9,900 (6th in Strokes Gained: Approach)
Value target: Rickie Fowler— $7,600 (9th in Strokes Gained: Approach)

Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee

Oak Hill will play extremely difficult, and players who are both long and straight off the tee will have a significant advantage. There will be fewer trees, but the thick rough will make playing from the fairway an advantage, provided the golfer can hit it long enough to avoid approaches from 220+ yards.

High-end target: Scottie Scheffler — $11,200 (2nd Strokes Gained: Off the Tee)
Mid-range target: Viktor Hovland — $9,100 (3rd Strokes Gained: Off the Tee)
Value target: Dean Burmester — $6,800 (9th Strokes Gained: Off the Tee)

Strokes Gained: Total on Difficult Par 70s Over 7,200 Yards

Oak Hill is long for a par 70. The around-the-green areas are going to be difficult, and the rough off of the fairways will be thick. It will be crucial to target players who thrive on tough par 70s.

High-end target: Brooks Koepka — $10,100 (2nd Strokes Gained: Total on Difficult Par 70s Over 7,200 Yards)
Mid-range target: Dustin Johnson — $8,800 (1st Strokes Gained: Total on Difficult Par 70s Over 7,200 Yards)
Value target: Paul Casey — $7,300 (6th Strokes Gained: Total on Difficult Par 70s Over 7,200 Yards)

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Driving Distance

With most of the trees being removed from Oak Hill, driving distance will play an even more important role than usual in this major championship. In 2020, we saw Bryson DeChambeau dismantle the field at a long and difficult New York golf course in Winged Foot. The PGA Championship has gravitated towards the “long and difficult” approach in their setups in recent years. Hitting the ball a long way may be a requirement this week.

High-end target: Rory McIlroy — $10,700 (1st Driving Distance)
Mid-range target: Cameron Young — $9,200 (2nd Driving Distance)
Value target: Nicolai Hojgaard — $7,200 (3rd Driving Distance)

Bogey Avoidance

When trying to win a major championship at a difficult golf course, it’s crucial to limit mistakes. Golfers who do the best job of avoiding bogeys will put themselves in a position to win the tournament.

High-end target: Scottie Scheffler — $11,200 (2nd in Bogey Avoidance)
Mid-range target: Hideki Matsuyama — $8,600 (4th in Bogey Avoidance)
Value target: Matt Kuchar — $6,900 (6th in Bogey Avoidance)