2023 NFL Playoff Odds: Picks and Predictions for the Conference Championship Games

This weekend, the NFL will play its version of the final four, with the AFC and NFC championship games on Sunday – the winner of each matchup heading to Glendale, Arizona in two weeks for the Super Bowl. The action will begin with the San Francisco 49ers and the Philadelphia Eagles at 3:00 p.m. EST on FOX, with the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs playing at 6:00 p.m. EST on CBS.

Below, we take a look at each conference championship game matchup, along with current 49ers-Eagles and Bengals-Chiefs odds, and provide insight into what bettors can expect from remaining stars, such as Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow, and Patrick Mahomes.

2023 NFL Playoff Odds and Lines

• 49ers at Eagles (-2.5), O/U 46.5 | 3:00 p.m. EST | FOX
• Bengals (-1) at Chiefs, O/U 47.5 | 6:30 p.m. EST | CBS

Best Bets, Playoff Picks for AFC & NFC Championships

49ers at Eagles (-2.5), O/U 46.5 | 3:00 p.m. EST | FOX

On Sunday, the San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles will meet in the NFC championship game, with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.

San Francisco enters this weekend on a 12-game winning streak, including wins over the Seattle Seahawks and Dallas Cowboys to begin the postseason. Philadelphia finished the regular season 14-3 to earn the 1-seed in the conference and a first round bye in the playoffs. Last Saturday, they beat the New York Giants 38-7 in the divisional round.

Pressure on Purdy

Selected by the 49ers with the final pick in the 2022 draft, Purdy was not expected to be thrust into a starting role for this franchise as a rookie, with prized draft pick Trey Lance beginning the year as the team’s quarterback, and a proven veteran, Jimmy Garoppolo, as his backup. However, since taking over for the injured Garoppolo in Week 13, Brock Purdy is 8-0, with five of those wins coming by double-digits. In that span, he owns a 16-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio and collected his first 300-yard passing performance in the divisional round against the Seahawks.

Yet, there is reason for San Francisco to be concerned about their young signal caller heading into this weekend against a Philadelphia defense that ranked second in the NFL this season in pressure rate, trailing only the Dallas Cowboys. In the divisional round, Purdy was pressured on 48.5% of his dropbacks, per Pro Football Focus, completing only 4-of-12 pass attempts when under duress. He was far better from a clean pocket, completing 15 of 17 pass attempts for 159 yards. Protection will be a key area to watch on Sunday.

League’s best defense

Fortunately for Purdy and the 49ers, their path to victory does not rely solely on putting points on the board. During the regular season, San Francisco allowed the fewest points per game, fewest yards per game, fewest rush yards per carry, and led the league in both EPA and DVOA on the defensive side of the ball, per David Lombardi.

Is Hurts healthy?

Earlier this week, Jalen Hurts was asked about his health and responded, “I’ve felt better, but it doesn’t matter. Gotta get it done.” Against the New York Giants, Hurts was not forced to do much, thanks to a sizable early lead, but it is worth noting that he had only six pass attempts of 10-plus yards down-the-field, completing only two of those passes. The game plan appeared to be similar to Week 18, in which Hurts attempted 23 of his 30 passes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. If he is unable to effectively throw the ball deep, it will make life extremely difficult for this Philadelphia offense against an elite San Francisco defense.

Eagles need to stop the run

Earlier this year, the Eagles saw their hopes of a perfect season vanish when they lost 32-21 to the Washington Commanders in Week 10. In that contest, Washington ran the ball 49 times for 152 yards on the ground, and possessed the ball for 40 minutes and 24 seconds. That loss remains the only time that Philadelphia has lost a game this year with Hurts healthy and under center.

Early lean

On the futures market, our 49ers to win Super Bowl (+500) recommendation has already matured to as low as +320 at some sportsbooks. Bettors who hold that ticket have the opportunity to hedge into a guaranteed profit if they choose to do so ahead of kickoff on Sunday

If you are not holding a futures ticket on San Francisco, Brock Purdy to throw an interception is a worthwhile look. Purdy has struggled under duress during his first two months as a starting NFL quarterback and there is not a more intimidating environment than on the road in Philadelphia during the month of January. Expect him to make at least one costly mistake in the NFC championship game.

• PICK: Brock Purdy to throw an interception (-140)

Bengals (-1) at Chiefs, O/U 47.5 | 6:30 p.m. EST | CBS

Following the NFC championship at 3:00 p.m. EST, the Kansas City Chiefs will host the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC championship game at Arrowhead Stadium to determine who will be the other team making a trip to Glendale, Arizona in two weeks. This will be the second consecutive year that Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes meet each other with a ticket to the Super Bowl awaiting the winner. Last season, Burrow and the Bengals erased a 21-3 first half deficit to emerge victorious 27-24 in overtime.

Entering play on Sunday, Cincinnati has won 10 consecutive games, including wins over the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills to begin the postseason. Kansas City is 11-1 in their last 12 games, with their only loss in that span coming in Week 13 on the road against the Bengals.

2.5 seconds or less

In the divisional round against the Bills, Burrow had an average time to throw of 2.46 seconds, per Pro Football Focus. His ability to get the ball out quickly played enormous dividends for him on a day in which he completed 23 of 36 pass attempts for two touchdowns in a winning effort. However, the environment and the matchup played a key role in his ability to get rid of the ball in less than 2.50 seconds last weekend. Playing in snowy conditions, the opposition was unable to implement consistent press coverage, which granted Cincinnati receivers free releases off of the line of scrimmage. Additionally, the lack of stable footing for Buffalo’s defensive lineman meant that it was nearly impossible to get consistent pressure on Burrow. On 39 dropbacks, he was only pressured 12 times.

In the AFC championship game, Burrow is unlikely to be able to get rid of the ball as quickly against a Kansas City defense that has more talent than Buffalo in the secondary, and will likely have better weather conditions, which will allow more aggressive play from defensive backs. When Burrow played the Chiefs in Week 13, he had an average time to throw of 2.88 seconds.

Bengals’ secondary unit in trouble

Simply, any secondary unit that is forced to feature Eli Apple in a major role is vulnerable. Per Pro Football Focus, Apple ranked 103rd out of 120 qualified players at his position in coverage this year, marking his seventh consecutive season ranking worse than league average in this metric at his position.

The absence of Chidobe Awuzie will also force Cam Taylor-Britt into action, who finished the fall ranked 71st at his position in defense grade out of 122 eligible players. Since Awuzie last played in Week 8, the Bengals rank 12th in dropback EPA. Even against an ailing Mahomes, this is a group that is going to find it difficult to perform well on Sunday.

Update on Mahomes’ knee

On Wednesday’s practice report, Mahomes was listed as a full participant. Chiefs beat writer Matt Derrick commented during practice that Mahomes was seen “stretching, skipping, and jogging,” indicating that the star quarterback had relatively good movement and did not seem overly inhibited by the high ankle sprain that he suffered in the first half against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Still, there is little doubt that Mahomes will be playing at far less than 100% health in this matchup.

Early lean

On the futures market, our Chiefs to win AFC (+180) and Bengals to win AFC (+450) recommendations have matured into a position where bettors with both tickets have a can’t-lose situation for this Sunday’s action.

If bettors are less fortunate and do not have both of these futures tickets heading into the AFC championship game, the smart play is to bet on a game plan that features plenty of checkdowns from Mahomes and the passing attack. According to props.cash, Jerick McKinnon has eclipsed his market number in 7-of-12 games played since Week 7, and figures to be heavily involved in the action this weekend. Take the over on his receiving yards.

• PICK: Jerick McKinnon o29.5 receiving yards (-110)