2023 NFL Playoff Betting Preview: AFC, NFC, and Super Bowl Odds

The 2023 NFL Playoffs are here, and NFL betting analyst Nick Galaida is ready to preview each each team, along with current NFC, AFC, and Super Bowl odds. Sign up at BetMGM Sportsbook with the bonus code LABSTOP to get your first bet insured up to $1,000.

2023 NFL Playoffs – Super Bowl Odds

• Kansas City Chiefs +350
• Buffalo Bills +420
• San Francisco +500
• Philadelphia Eagles +550
• Cincinnati Bengals +850
• Dallas Cowboys +1400
• Los Angeles Chargers +2500
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2800
• Minnesota Vikings +3500
• Baltimore Ravens +4400
• Jacksonville Jaguars +5000
• New York Giants +6600
• Miami Dolphins +6500
• Seattle Seahawks +8500

Odds are courtesy of Scores And Odds’ NFL Futures odds comparison. 

AFC Preview

Kansas City Chiefs (1-seed)

• +180 to Win AFC
• +350 to Win Super Bowl (Best price at DraftKings)

Patrick Mahomes and company finished the regular season with a 14-3 record, with two of their three losses coming by one score to the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals – both teams that earned a top-three seed in the AFC playoff picture.

Following a Week 8 bye, the Kansas City Chiefs went 9-1, leading the NFL in offensive EPA in the process. Across their final nine games, the Chiefs never scored fewer than 24 points in a game, and they scored 30 points or more on four separate occasions. Defensively, rookie cornerback Trent McDuffie made a major impact during the latter half of the campaign. From Week 2 to Week 8, with McDuffie on the sidelines, the Chiefs defense ranked 22nd in EPA overall and 24th in dropback EPA. From Week 9 to Week 18, with McDuffie back on the field, Kansas City’s defense improved to 10th in overall EPA and 9th in dropback EPA.

The Chiefs are the healthiest team in the AFC entering the playoffs and have the benefit of resting during the Wild Card round while the rest of their intra-conference competition is forced to go to battle. There is a reason that this group has such short odds to reach the Super Bowl – they are certainly worth the price of admission on the market.

Buffalo Bills (2-seed)

• +200 to Win AFC
• +420 to Win Super Bowl

The Buffalo Bills have not lost a game since Week 10 – a game in which they led the Minnesota Vikings by 17 points with less than 17 minutes remaining in regulation. The Bills responded by winning each of their last seven regular season contests, though it is worth noting that they played only one playoff team in that span.

Still, the offense ranked 4th in EPA overall, 7th in dropback EPA, and 3rd in rush EPA, using a balanced approach on the ground and through the air that made Josh Allen even more difficult to defend. The larger question for this team is how they will navigate the absence of edge defender Von Miller against better offenses during the month of January. Facing a collection of weak teams in November and December, the Bills defense ranked 6th in EPA overall, 7th in dropback EPA, and 8th in rush EPA. Yet, the secondary unit remains weak outside of safety Jordan Poyer, which could make it difficult to come away with a win against either Mahomes or Joe Burrow.

Oddsmakers are anticipating a matchup between Mahomes and Allen in the AFC Championship game, which is the reason for the short odds on the Bills here. Bettors would be wise to avoid taking such short odds on the Bills in this spot, and instead, take Buffalo on the moneyline against both the Bengals and Chiefs if those matchups end up manifesting themselves.

Cincinnati Bengals (3-seed)

• +450 to Win AFC
• +850 to Win Super Bowl

The Cincinnati Bengals will not win the Super Bowl this February, but they are likely to be an entertaining team to watch across the next few weeks – and they certainly have enough offensive firepower to spoil a Mahomes versus Allen AFC Championship matchup.

From Week 9 until the end of the regular season, Cincinnati ranked 4th in offensive EPA overall, 5th in dropback EPA, and 8th in rush EPA. Featuring, arguably, the most talented collection of skill players in the entire NFL, there is little doubt that this group can go toe-to-toe with any offense in football. More concerning for the Bengals is their inability to stop opposing offenses.

Since cornerback Chidobe Awuzie last played in Week 8, Cincinnati’s defense ranks 12th in dropback EPA. Each of their remaining starting cornerbacks, Eli Apple and Cam Taylor-Britt, graded 95th or worse out of 122 eligible players at their position this fall in defense grade, per Pro Football Focus. This secondary unit will have a difficult time getting Mahomes and Allen off of the field.

Nevertheless, in their playoff opener, the Bengals should have little trouble handling an injury-depleted Baltimore Ravens team that appears unlikely to have Lamar Jackson under center on Sunday. Assuming Joe Burrow leads his group to a win in the opening round, bettors will see the value of this play increase, and they can decide whether to let it ride or hedge in a likely matchup against the Bills. Make a small investment in the Bengals here, which will mature into a hedge-able ticket as long as they can take care of business at home against the Ravens.

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-seed)

• +1200 to Win AFC
• +5000 to Win Super Bowl

The Jacksonville Jaguars finished the regular season 6-1 following their Week 11 bye, but the fact remains that this is an extremely flawed football team. From Week 12 to Week 18, Jacksonville ranked 10th in offensive EPA overall, but a 30th ranked rush EPA in that span makes it difficult to envision this offense having much success against the better defenses in the conference. In that same time period, their defense ranked 6th in EPA overall, but struggled against opposing passing attacks. Having to get through Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes on their way to the AFC Championship Game, it is doubtful that this unit has enough talent or experience to make a Cinderella run to the Super Bowl in February. Further hurting their chances is the fact that Dawuane Smoot, the team’s second-best pass rusher, was placed on injured reserve following Week 16. There are better longshot options than betting on a young team with multiple roster vulnerabilities.

Los Angeles Chargers (5-seed)

• +1200 to Win AFC
• +2500 to Win Super Bowl

If there was one team that could throw a major wrench into NFL marketing plans over the course of the next month, it is the Los Angeles Chargers. In two matchups against the Chiefs this season, the Chargers lost 27-24 and 30-27, despite holding a 10-point second-half lead in the first contest and a seven-point lead in the rematch. If they get the opportunity to play Kansas City a third time this season, they will be the healthiest that they have been since the opening weeks of the regular season, with the one lone exception being the absence of left tackle Rashawn Slater. From Week 12 to Week 18, the Chargers ranked 12th in offensive EPA and 5th in defensive EPA. Division familiarity with the Chiefs, coupled with the fact that this group is getting healthy at the right time of the year make this team a legitimate threat if they are able to take care of business against the Jaguars on Saturday.

Baltimore Ravens (6-seed)

• +2500 to Win AFC
• +4400 to Win Super Bowl

Simply, there is little to discuss when it comes to the Ravens if Lamar Jackson is not on the football field this weekend. In their final six games of the regular season, all with Jackson on the sidelines, Baltimore scored 10, 16, 3, 17, 13, and 16 points, respectively. Facing one of the league’s premier offensive attacks, this is a team lacking enough weapons to keep pace. Factor in a defense that ranked 19th in dropback EPA from Week 13 to Week 18, and hope for a low-scoring win in a surprising defensive battle goes out the window.

Miami Dolphins (7-seed)

• +3500 to Win AFC
• +6500 to Win Super Bowl

Similar to the Ravens, the Miami Dolphins have no hope of advancing in these playoffs if Tua Tagovailoa is unable to play against the Bills in the opening round. In games without Tagovailoa this season, Miami scored three points in the second half against the Bengals in Week 4, followed by 17 points in Week 5 and 16 points in Week 6. During the final two weeks of the regular season, once again without Tagovailoa, the Dolphins scored only 32 points in two games. Further complicating a path to victory is an injury report that features wide receivers Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill, in addition to left tackle Terron Armstead and right tackle Kendall Lamm.

AFC Odds Final Thoughts

In essence, the Kansas City Chiefs (+180) rightfully have the shortest odds of any team in the conference to advance to the Super Bowl, and should be wagered on accordingly. If looking for a longer shot wager to add a little bit of risk to the next month of life, the Cincinnati Bengals (+450) and Los Angeles Chargers (+1200) are two teams that could pay dividends for bettors across the next three weeks.

NFC Preview

Philadelphia Eagles (1-seed)

• +175 to Win NFC
• +550 to Win Super Bowl

In Week 18, the Philadelphia Eagles did their job, securing the 1-seed in the NFC playoffs after defeating the New York Giants. However, they did not look overly impressive in the win. Jalen Hurts, returning to action after suffering a shoulder injury, was only 2-for-7 on pass attempts 10-plus yards down-the-field, including an interception – all against a New York defense that was missing key contributors. Against better teams in January, Philadelphia will need their quarterback to perform better, and they will certainly need right tackle Lane Johnson to return from the injured list. Across the final three weeks of the regular season, with Johnson on the sidelines, backup right tackle Jack Driscoll allowed two sacks and seven quarterback pressures on only 92 pass-blocking snaps.

When healthy, the Eagles are a well-balanced team on both sides of the ball, with their primary deficiency being their vulnerability on the ground – ranking 23rd in rush EPA this fall. Though the Eagles have a realistic opportunity to make a run to the Super Bowl, there is little betting value on them to win the conference at such short odds, especially if they are forced to face the Cowboys and 49ers in back-to-back weeks – and even more so if they are forced to face those two teams without being fully healthy.

San Francisco 49ers (2-seed)

• +200 to Win NFC
• +500 to Win Super Bowl

Since the conclusion of the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers game this past Sunday, the market has aggressively cut the price on the San Francisco 49ers to win the Super Bowl, and for good reason. Not only are the 49ers the healthiest team in the NFL entering the playoffs, they also have the easiest path of any team in football to get to the conference championship round.

On Saturday, San Francisco will host a Seattle Seahawks team that limped into the playoffs with wins over the injury-depleted New York Jets and Los Angeles Rams, following a stretch of five losses in six games. Assuming the 49ers beat the Seahawks, they will have a rest advantage over the winner of the matchup between the New York Giants and Minnesota Vikings.

On top of the scheduling advantages and good health, there are also strong arguments to be made that San Francisco is simply the most talented team in the NFL. During their 10-game winning streak, they ranked 2nd in offensive EPA 1st in defensive EPA, despite having to use their second- and third-string quarterback in those contests. Unquestionably, San Francisco is the best value on the futures market as of this writing.

Minnesota Vikings (3-seed)

• +1200 to Win NFC
• +3500 to Win Super Bowl

The Minnesota Vikings are not as bad as the public believes they are, but the fact remains that this team is not well-equipped for a deep playoff run. The theme of Minnesota’s season has been late-game heroics and a seemingly unsustainable run of good fortune in one-score games – something that is only partially true.

In the first three quarters of games this year, Minnesota ranked 24th in offensive EPA and 28th in defensive EPA. However, in the fourth quarter and overtime, the Vikings ranked 2nd in offensive EPA and 5th in defense EPA. If this group was truly devoid of talent, they would not have been able to consistently “turn it on” late in games the way they did for much of 2022. Yet, this also clearly illuminates an inability to focus and execute for a full 60 minutes, which is something that will be exposed in high-stakes games against the best teams in the NFL.

The Vikings are talented, but they are not as talented as the Eagles, 49ers, and Cowboys. Minnesota’s lack of execution early in games is likely to make it difficult to come-from-behind against top-tier defense talent in January. There is no reason for bettors to invest their money in Kirk Cousins and company on the futures market.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-seed)

• +1100 to Win NFC
• +2800 to Win Super Bowl

Per Jimmy Kempski, Tom Brady has more than double the playoff wins (35) of all other starting quarterbacks in the 2022-2023 playoffs, combined (17). However, it is unlikely that the seven-time Super Bowl Champion adds to his playoff resume this January, playing behind an offensive line featuring massive liabilities with Donovan Smith at left tackle and a potential third-string option at center if neither Robert Hainsey nor Ryan Jensen are able to take the field on Monday against the Dallas Cowboys.

During the regular season, Dallas had the second-most sacks per pass attempt of any defense in the NFL. In 17 games, Brady posted only a 2-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio when under pressure and ranked 38th among qualified signal callers in such situations, per Pro Football Focus.

Even if Brady performs well in the Wild Card round, it is unlikely that a defense with numerous injuries and not a lot of depth will be able to get enough stops to emerge victorious against one of the more potent offensive attacks in the NFL. There is no magical storyline in the making for Brady here.

Dallas Cowboys (5-seed)

• +550 to Win NFC
• +1400 to Win Super Bowl

The Dallas Cowboys have a manageable path to the NFC Championship, getting to face a sub-.500 Tampa Bay team in the Wild Card round before heading to the City of Brotherly Love for an intra-division matchup against a familiar foe.

Following Dak Prescott’s return from injury in Week 7, Dallas was 8-3, with two losses on the road in overtime. In that span, they ranked 6th in offensive EPA and 4th in defensive EPA, ranking top-10 against both the run and the pass on the defensive side of the ball.

The primary difficulty for Dallas comes down to them having a significant rest disadvantage in the Divisional Round against Philadelphia, assuming they take care of business against Brady and the Buccaneers. There is value here at +550 to win the NFC, but bettors should be careful not to over-invest.

New York Giants (6-seed)

• +2800 to Win NFC
• +6600 to Win Super Bowl

The New York Giants overperformed preseason expectations in 2022 en route to a playoff berth, but that is likely to be the end of the road for this group. During the regular season, New York had only two wins against playoff teams – beating the Baltimore Ravens and Jacksonville Jaguars in back-to-back games in Week 6 and Week 7. Following that point, New York ranked 14th in offensive EPA and 28th in defensive EPA, winning only three of their remaining 10 contests. Even if this group finds a way to beat Minnesota this weekend, they stand little chance against the 49ers in the next round.

Seattle Seahawks (7-seed)

• +3100 to Win NFC
• +8500 to Win Super Bowl

The Seattle Seahawks are the most flawed team in the NFL postseason this year. From Week 12 to Week 18, Seattle ranked 19th in offensive EPA and 21st in defensive EPA. If not for hosting two weak opponents to end the season, in addition to getting help from the Detroit Lions on Sunday Night Football against the Green Bay Packers – Seattle would not have made the playoffs. Geno Smith finished the year with high marks among all qualified quarterbacks, but his performance regressed notably during the second half of the campaign. There are too many holes on this roster and too many injuries to key players for this team to be competitive in January. Leave the Seahawks on the futures market and turn attention to other teams.

NFC Odds Final Thoughts

The most talented team in the NFC entering the postseason is, unequivocally, the San Francisco 49ers. At +200 to win the conference, this is a worthwhile wager for bettors on a team that has no excuse to fall short of the conference champion game, at which point this ticket could be hedged into profit. If looking for a longer-shot ticket on this side of the bracket, the Dallas Cowboys (+550) have a realistic path to the conference championship, with a matchup against the injury-depleted Tampa Bay Buccaneers, followed by a familiar foe in the subsequent round.