2023 NBA 3-Point Contest Odds, Picks and Predictions: Bet on This 10-to-1 Longshot

On Friday, we started NBA All-Star Weekend with a bang, posting a perfect bracket in the Rising Stars Tournament. Today, we have information for each of the Saturday events, including the Skills Challenge, 3-Point Contest, and Slam Dunk Contest. Below, we take a look at 2023 NBA 3-Point Contest odds, picks and predictions.

2023 NBA 3-Point Contest Odds

• Buddy Hield +400, BetMGM
• Damian Lillard +440, BetMGM
• Kevin Huerter +550, BetMGM
• Tyler Herro, +600, FanDuel
• Lauri Markkanen +700, FanDuel
• Jayson Tatum +800, FanDuel
• Tyrese Haliburton +1000, FanDuel
• Julius Randle +1200, FanDuel

 

Buddy Hield +400

In 2020, Buddy Hield won this event while he was a member of the Sacramento Kings. Unsurprisingly, he is viewed as a top-option to win this event again in 2023. In 60 games played this season, he is shooting 48.4% on wide open three-point field goal attempts. He has been a marksman from the wings this season, shooting 43.3% from deep on the left wing and 43.0% from the right wing when left uncontested this year. Combining his familiarity with this event and his elite shooting ability, Hield is a strong bet to return to the finals in this contest for the second time in his career.

Damian Lillard +440

Though Damian Lillard is undeniably an elite player and an elite in-game shooter, he has made only 40.2% of shots from beyond-the-arc this season when wide open. In 2019, Lillard had a slow pace and never managed to get into a rhythm when he participated in the three-point contest. In 2014, Lillard performed well, but ended the first round with only 18 points. He has never made it out of the opening round in this competition. At such short odds, it is difficult to come up with reasons to trust Lillard in this spot.

Kevin Huerter +550

Kevin Huerter is being talked about as a dark horse option to win on Saturday, but the metrics do not necessarily support that claim. He has made 42.2% of his shots from beyond-the-arc this year when wide open, but that ranks sixth out of eight players in this competition. He is a strong shooter from above the break, but he is less effective when shooting on an angle at the basket. The metrics suggest bettors look elsewhere for a sneaky play in the three-point contest in 2023.

Tyler Herro +600

Tyler Herro is a skilled shooter, but the advanced stats are a mixed bag when evaluating him ahead of his participation in this event on Saturday. Overall, he owns a 36.9% shooting percentage from the perimeter this season, but he has made 44.8% of his attempts from deep when wide open. Herro is a major wild card, with the potential to get on a run and look like a steal at +600, but he is also at risk of putting up the worst score in the first round. Tread carefully here.

Lauri Markkanen +700

Lauri Markkanen has made 45.3% of his attempts from long range this season when wide open. He has been elite from the left corner, making 32 of 50 uncontested three-point attempts during the regular season. It would not be surprising to see him put his moneyball rank in that corner, allowing him to capitalize on this strength. Markkanen has also been strong from above the break and from the right wing, which gives him the opportunity to go streaking on that side of the floor. The hometown representative was far from a pity invite to the party.

Jayson Tatum +800

Jayson Tatum delivered 25 points in the opening round of this contest when he participated in 2021, but posted only 17 points in the final round, getting bested by Stephen Curry, who won the event. Tatum is an elite shooter, evident by the fact that he has made 44.7% of his wide open three-point attempts this year. However, he has a longer shooting motion than other participants in this contest, and it is very easy for him to fall out of a rhythm if things do not go perfectly. For these reasons, we recommend investing elsewhere on Saturday.

Tyrese Haliburton +1000

Per NBA advanced stats, Tyrese Haliburton is shooting 43.1% this season on wide open three-point field goal attempts. He has a relatively quick shot release and an easily repeatable motion, which is likely being overlooked on the market ahead of this weekend’s action. Haliburton leads all participants in this contest in three-point% on uncontested attempts from the left wing, is second in such attempts from above the break, and third in shots from the right corner. Simply, these long odds do not make much sense.

Julius Randle +1200

Earlier this week, it was announced that Anfernee Simons would not be able to participate in the three-point contest. As a result, Julius Randle, who is shooting 33.8% from beyond-the-arc this season, was selected as a last-minute addition to the event. Per CBS, Randle has shot only 33.6% on catch-and-shoot threes, and only 35.3% on wide-open three-point attempts. Factor in that Randle has had very little time to prepare for the unique challenge of this event, and it becomes easy to see why he is viewed as the least likely winner on Saturday by sportsbooks.

2023 Three-Point Contest Picks & Predictions

The three participants with the highest score from Round 1 will advance to the final round. At FanDuel, Buddy Hield has undeniable value at -125 to be one of the final three players standing in this contest. Our other two recommendations here are Lauri Markkanen at +150 and Tyrese Haliburton at +170.

Of those three contestants, we like the value on Haliburton at +1000 on FanDuel to deliver a big splash for bettors. Haliburton is a much better shooter than people realize, and is consequently being undervalued in this spot. Don’t bet the house, but he’s worth a small stab here.

• To Advance to the Final Round: Buddy Hield (-125, FanDuel)
• To Advance to the Final Round: Lauri Markkanen (+150, FanDuel)
• To Advance to the Final Round: Tyrese Haliburton (+170, FanDuel)
• 3-Point Contest WINNER: Tyrese Haliburton +1000