Mexico Open at Vidanta PGA DFS Stats Preview: Course Fits, GPP Picks, and Values

For the second consecutive year, the PGA TOUR heads to beautiful Puerto Vallarta to play the Mexico Open.

The Greg Norman-designed Vidanta Vallarta is a par 71, measuring 7,456 yards. Prior to last year’s inaugural event, the course was extended by over 250 yards to make it PGA TOUR-ready, and there were nine new tee boxes and 106 new bunkers added to stiffen the test for the best players in the world.

The course features three par 5s, and the par-4 seventh will be drivable for the longer hitters, but golfers will have to risk taking on some water if they want to go for it.

The field this week will consist of 153 players. The only players in the field who are currently ranked in the top 50 of the Official World Golf Rankings are Jon Rahm, Tony Finau, and Alex Noren.

For GPP contests on DraftKings, I will be breaking down the key stats (past 24 rounds) and selecting golfers from different price tiers to provide flexibility for a DFS lineup.

And if you missed it, we added two metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.

The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.

For large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

This analysis may reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.

Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

Driving Distance

At almost 7,500 yards, Vidanta Villarta is a long par 71. The rough shouldn’t be much of a factor this week, which gives the advantage to the long hitters in the field.

High-end target: Jon Rahm — $12,000 (20th in Driving Distance)
Mid-range target: Nicolai Hojgaard — $9,500 (1st in Driving Distance)
Value target: Brandon Matthews — $6,600 (2nd in Driving Distance)

Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking

With the course playing long and greens likely being receptive, elite ball-strikers should have an advantage more so than a good short game and strong putting.

High-end target: Jon Rahm — $12,000 (1st Strokes Gained: Ball Striking)
Mid-range target: Brandon Wu— $8,300 (10th Strokes Gained: Ball Striking)
Value target: Michael Kim — $7,300 (22nd Strokes Gained: Ball Striking)

Strokes Gained: Total Paspalum

We’ve seen similar players pop up time and time again on courses that feature paspalum. It’s a surface that players don’t see very often on TOUR, and a positive experience on the grass type should provide a major advantage in Mexico this week.

High-end target: Jon Rahm— $12,000 (24th Strokes Gained: Paspalum)
Mid-range target: Brandon Wu — $8,300 (3rd Strokes Gained: Paspalum)
Value target: Nate Lashley — $7,700 (1st Strokes Gained: Paspalum)

Total Strokes Gained in Windy Conditions

I spoke with Tournament Executive Director Rodrigo Suarez Gilly last year, who said the afternoons typically get extremely windy. This will provide golfers who excel in the wind a major advantage.

High-end target: Tony Finau— $10,700 (1st Strokes Gained: Total in Windy Conditions)
Mid-range target: Byeong Hun An— $9,100 (19th Strokes Gained: Total in Windy Conditions)
Value target: Kyle Westmoreland— $6,300 (16th Strokes Gained: Total in Windy Conditions)

Opportunities Gained

Last year, Suarez Gilly predicted the winning score to be in the range of 18-under, and the winner was -17. Golfers will have to make plenty of birdies to keep up, and paspalum greens typically help out golfers who aren’t the best putters. Therefore, it makes sense to target the players who give themselves the most opportunities from 15 feet and in.

High-end target: Jon Rahm — $12,000 (1st in Opportunities Gained)
Mid-range target: Ben Martin — $8,600 (5th in Opportunities Gained)
Value target: Michael Kim — $7,300 (10th in Opportunities Gained)

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