AT&T Byron Nelson PGA DFS Stats Preview: Course Fits, GPP Picks, and Values

As anticipation mounts for the 2023 PGA Championship at Oak Hill, the Tour will make one final pit stop at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas, to play the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson.

Last year was the second time the tournament was held at TPC Craig Ranch. Previously, the event was held at Trinity Forest Golf Club in Dallas.

TPC Craig Ranch is a 7,414-yard par-71 that features Bentgrass greens. The event historically plays relatively easy, and that remained the case in the two editions at TPC Craig Ranch.

The course structure may provide some additional intrigue with the par-3 17th setup like the stadium hole at TPC Scottsdale. The course also has both long and difficult par 4s mixed with drivable par 4s, which should create some exciting moments.

There are 156 golfers in the field this week, and many stars will be taking the week off to prepare for 2023’s second major championship. Some notable names in the field are Scottie Scheffler, Tyrrell Hatton, Hideki Matsuyama and Jason Day.

For GPP contests on DraftKings, I will be breaking down the key stats (past 24 rounds) and selecting golfers from different price tiers to provide flexibility for a DFS lineup.

And if you missed it, we added two new metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.

The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.

For large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

This analysis may reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.

Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach remains the best measure of current form.

Hot iron play will be at a premium this week. Last year, K.H. Lee was 9th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.2 strokes. In his 2021 victory, he was second in the field and gained 8.3 strokes on the field in the category.

High-end target: Scottie Scheffler — $11,900 (1st in Strokes Gained: Approach)
Mid-range target: Davis Riley— $7,900 (13th in Strokes Gained: Approach)
Value target: Ryan Gerard— $6,900 (8th in Strokes Gained: Approach)

Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee

Fairways are wide at TPC Craig Ranch.

Distance will certainly be helpful, and there doesn’t appear to be too many difficult holes on the course. Golfers who put themselves in position off of the tee this week should have a sizable advantage.

High-end target: Scottie Scheffler — $11,900 (1st Strokes Gained: Off the Tee)
Mid-range target: Adam Scott — $9,200 (10th Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Value target: Sam Stevens — $7,600 (6th Strokes Gained: Off the Tee)

Birdie or Better

There aren’t many hazards on the course, and all of the par 5s should be reachable in two for the majority of the players in the field. I am anticipating a birdie fest, and this statistic should be helpful in finding the birdie makers.

High-end target: Scottie Scheffler — 11,900 (1st Birdie or Better)
Mid-range target: Justin Suh — $7,600 (8th Birdie or Better)
Value target: Michael Kim — $7,500 (13th Birdie or Better)

Par 3s: 200+

Three of the four par 3s at TPC Craig Ranch measure over 200 yards (Hole 4: 219, Hole 7: 232, and Hole 15: 216).

This week, I will be looking for golfers who can play these difficult par 3s effectively and who have good proximity statistics on similar length holes.

High-end target: Scottie Scheffler — $11,900 (4th Par 3: 200+)
Mid-range target: Christiaan Bezuidenhout — $8,000 (6th Par 3: 200+)
Value target: Garrick Higgo — $7,300 (13th Par 3: 200+)

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)

Many golfers on tour have some major putting surface variance in their statistics and prefer Bentgrass to other surfaces.

Bentgrass is common in Texas, and we often see golfers who play well in Texas continue to do so, finding a great feel around the greens.

High-end target: Jason Day — $9,400 (14th in Strokes Gained: Putting Bentgrass)
Mid-range target: Christiaan Bezuidenhout — $8,000 (1st in Strokes Gained: Putting Bentgrass)
Value target: Seonghyeon Kim — $7,600 (16th in Strokes Gained: Putting Bentgrass)