The PGA TOUR returns this week with the Sentry Tournament of Champions at the Kapalua Plantation Course in Maui. Kapalua is a unique par 73 measuring 7,515 yards, featuring four par 5s but only three par 3s.
The Tournament of Champions is a no-cut and usually very low-scoring affair, with the only exception being the 2020 edition which played more difficult due to wind. Wide fairways and soft greens typically make the event quite scorable, with coastal wind and elevation changes being the course’s only real defenses.
Per usual, every winner from the previous season is invited to participate in the Sentry Tournament of Champions. As a result, we will give us a larger than usual field this year with so many events taking place in 2021. As a result, the tournament boasts a relatively large field with 39 golfers scheduled to tee it up.
Predictably, the field is absolutely loaded with most of the top golfers in the world. The only player who qualified but will not play is Rory McIlroy.
For GPP contests on DraftKings. I will be breaking down the key stats (past 24 rounds) and selecting golfers from different price tiers to provide flexibility for a DFS lineup.
For large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Don’t forget about the other tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, such as the Trends tool and PGA Correlation Dashboard.
This analysis may reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
Strokes Gained: Approach
With Greens in Regulation (GIR) percentages extremely high at Kapalua, just getting on the putting surface won’t be enough. In a low-scoring event, golfers will need to have their irons and wedges dialed in to provide scoring opportunities.
- High-end target: Justin Thomas – $10,600 (4th SG:APP)
- Mid-range target: Daniel Berger – $8,400 (1st SG: APP)
- Value target:Talor Gooch – $7,600 (6th SG: APP)
Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
With fairways being wide and easy to hit, bombers should be able to let it rip off the tee this week. Golfers with strong off-the-tee should end up with a wedge in their hand for their approach shot which will give them an advantage on the shorter hitters.
- High-end target: Bryson DeChambeau – $10,200 (1st SG: OTT)
- Mid-range target: Brooks Koepka – $8,500 (7th SG: OTT)
- Value target: K.H. Lee – $6,000 (8th SG: OTT)
Strokes Gained: Putting: Bermudagrass (Velcro)
This tournament could become a putting contest if the winds aren’t strong this week. Historically, the winners of the RSM Classic are great bermudagrass putters (Simpson, Kisner, Hughes).
- High-end target: Jordan Spieth – $8,900 (1st SG: Putting Bermuda Velcro)
- Mid-range target: Patrick Reed – $7,900 (5th SG: Putting Bermuda Velcro)
- Value target: Phil Mickelson – $6,500 (7th SG: Putting Bermuda Velcro)
Proximity 100-125 Yards
With a good deal of short par 4s on the course and easy-to-hit fairways, golfers will have wedges in their hands looking to attack pins. Historically, wedge play has been a major factor in determining a winner in Maui, and I expect that to continue in the 2022 edition.
- High-end target: Collin Morikawa – $10,800 (8th in Proximity 100-125)
- Mid-range target: Sam Burns – $9,100 (2nd in Proximity 100-125)
- Value target: Billy Horschel – $7,000 (10th in Proximity 100-125)
Strokes Gained: Par 5
The Plantation Course at Kapalua presents an uncommon five par 5s, and with the par 3s being relatively tough at this track, taking advantage of all of the par 5s will be crucial this week. The player who posts the lowest cumulative score on the par 5 holes will put themselves in a good position to win come Sunday.
- High-end target: Bryson DeChambeau – $10,200 (1st SG: Par 5)
- Mid-range target: Hideki Matsuyama – $8,700 (9th SG: Par 5)
- Value target: Lucas Herbert – $6,100 (7th SG: Par 5)
