The TOUR is back stateside this week, but it is another no-cut WGC event at the WGC St. Jude. These are always challenging contests from a DFS Golf perspective as there is no separator between teams at the halfway point of the tournament where, barring a withdrawal, everyone will play four rounds.
Before we get too far into strategy, let’s make sure you have all of the information you need for the event.
Matt Vincenzi has us covered with the stats that matter this week at TPC Southwind. I also put together my standard tournament preview of the course and the players that have done well at this track. Lastly, Landon Silinsky has his cash game article for those contests to give us a start on the safe plays of the week.
In a no-cut event, even more than most, game theory and ownership will play a big factor. As mentioned, we will see all players tee it up for four rounds, making scoring, birdie streaks and bonuses a separator on the DFS leaderboard in addition to final finishing position. It will also be important to do the little things in your lineups to make separation from others as with just 66 golfers, ownership will naturally be condensed. Let’s get right into the picks for the week.
Top Tier
Brooks Koepka ($10,700 DK/$12,200 FD)
If you compare the pricing on the main two DFS sites, Koepka immediately stands out. He comes in as the third-priced player on DraftKings, but the highest over on FanDuel. In either case, I am interested in starting lineups with him as his impeccable record, while a short sample, is difficult to overlook.
Koepka won this WGC in 2019, then battled with Justin Thomas down the stretch last year before finishing second. Add to it the great form he has shown over the past several months in all of the big events, and he is what I see as good chalk at the top.
I won’t start every lineup here as there is certainly viability to dodging the top-owned player of the week, but he makes too much sense to fade entirely.
Viktor Hovland ($9,700 DK/$10,800 FD)
One spot I will get a bit different from the masses is with Hovland.
It appears anyone that played in Japan last week will come at an ownership discount, including gold medalist Xander Schauffele. I am not going to try to create some narrative that may or may not have any viability this week and will instead happily take the currently projected 12% owned Hovland as my second player in lineups.
Hovland is a scoring machine, which will come in handy this week across four rounds, but he also has true winning upside. I really like the Norwegian’s fit at TPC Southwind and expect he will be a factor this weekend with his game rounding into form.
Mid-Tier
Tony Finau ($8,900 DK/$10,200 FD)
My top-ranked contrarian play at this point in the week, and based on projected ownership, is Finau. He hasn’t had the success over the past few months that we have come to expect, but Finau seems to have things heading in the right direction.
Finau finished 15th at The Open and will benefit from four rounds this week. When he had his elite game in prior years, we could always rely on Finau to score and outpace his position points, and I expect to see that again this week. He has a top-10 finish on this course from 2018, and at single digit-ownership he is a player we can get overweight on without too much effort in the hopes he outplays the chalk around him this week.
Brian Harman ($7,500 DK/$8,700 FD)
There are a lot of chalky players in this range and while I see double-digit ownership projections on Harman right now, I find it hard to believe he gets there. Harris English, Tyrrell Hatton and even Sergio Garcia will be more popular selections all at nearly the same price point on DraftKings.
Harman has mixed results in his career on this course with a few missed cuts, but also a T6 from 2014. This will be his first trip to this event for the WGC, and his first tournament in Memphis since 2018. I am hopeful that those factors will have others going in another direction this week, as Harman rates the best for me from a price perspective and should be a great fit for this course. He comes in with four top-20 finishes in his last five events, including two top-10s, and he certainly has the upside to contend in this field.
Value Plays
Tyrrell Hatton ($7,400 DK/$9,800 FD)
I mentioned Hatton above, and he is simply too talented to ignore at this price, especially on DraftKings. He is an elite level player when his game is on and has much more win equity than you will find in this range. His missed cuts at the last two majors aside, Hatton would be $1,000+ more expensive and this week we don’t have to worry about him trunk slamming after two rounds.
This is a no-brainer, don’t-overthink-it kind of play.
Sam Burns ($6,900 DK/$8,200 FD)
Another player who is mispriced based on his ability is Burns. We have seen him compete in a number of top level fields this season, and he continues to put himself in that position.
Burns has been a bit up and down since his first TOUR win at the Valspar but his form is close to contending and at this price tag, we can afford to take the risk for the upside. He will be double-digit owned, likely into the teens, but I will look to pair him with some of the lower owned guys below and avoid putting him in lineups with Hatton in order to keep that overall ownership down.
Sleepers
Phil Mickelson ($6,600 DK/$8,000 FD)
There is no questioning how much Phil likes the course at TPC Southwind. He has six top-12 finishes in his last eight trips to this course, including a T2 just last year at this WGC. He won’t get much ownership because he’s volatile and 51 years old in an elite field, but that volatility is welcomed for me in a no-cut event.
K.H. Lee ($6,400 DK/$7,100 FD)
A new rule has been established this season: K.H. Lee at TPC courses, always.
Lee’s first win was at TPC Craig Ranch a couple of months ago, and he just posted a T6 at TPC Twin Cities. There are more examples, but at this price and sub-5% ownership, that’s really all you need.
Pictured: Viktor Hovland
Credit: Paul Ellis/AFP via Getty Images
