The unique format of this week’s WGC Match Play event makes for an intriguing event from a DFS perspective, as creating the optimal lineup structure will be a vital aspect in giving yourself the most upside. I covered the details of how to build those lineups in my Tournament Preview article, and will also provide my picks in a way that would allow for the optimal build.
As always, you can also catch Matt Vincenzi’s stats that matter on Action Network, which he has done well to tailor to this event. We also have our staff best bets available to break down who we like and why they might also be a good fit on the DFS side.
In my picks this week, I will highlight two players from each side of the four quadrants. This will provide some of my favorite plays, and also be a guide to the way lineups should be constructed. Neither of the past two years has any lineup been able to hit the final four of the Match Play, but that should still be your goal.
Also keep in mind that every year there are upsets and players that surprise the masses on their way out of a group. In 2019, the final four were seeded 43/28/50/7, meaning that just seventh-ranked Francesco Molinari made it to the last quartet as the top seed in his opening group. There can, and will, be upsets which bring even more options into play.
Quadrant 1 (Groups 1, 16, 8, 9)
(Group 1 will play 16 in the next round, 8 vs. 9)
Dustin Johnson ($11,500)
In order to quickly lay out the scenario for building, in this particular set up, you would want to take a maximum of one player from Group 1, led by Johnson, and Group 16, led by Sungjae Im. It looks like Johnson will get the chalk — and rightfully so — in what looks like a fairly weak first two rounds on paper. This is, of course, a setup where anything can happen, and a guy like Kevin Na could surprise people as he has done well in this event in the past.
I picked the World No. 1 with my best bet this week, and I will likely stand behind that in a good bit of DFS lineups unless his ownership really starts to balloon to more than 25% or so. I am not one to be worried about him based on a couple of less than stellar outings especially with his history at TPC Sawgrass, and we have already seen him win this event in the past. He’s a strong starting point for lineups this week, in what appears to be the clear weakest group.
Paul Casey ($8,900)
I was surprised to see Casey projected for lower ownership than Tyrrell Hatton in this section. They aren’t in the same group but again we want just one player at most from Groups 8 and 9. It seems like a fairly clear edge, and Vegas sees it too, as Casey has the lowest odds to come out of Group 9. His group is led by Webb Simpson, who has struggled in this format, whereas the Englishman has seen a good bit of success. I’ll look to go to this spot where I can and might often target Casey in lineups that I don’t start with Johnson as I think he has merit as a single bullet in the quadrant.
One last note in this section: I see Group 8 with Hatton, Sergio Garcia, Lee Westwood and Matt Wallace as one of the most difficult of the bunch. I will tread lightly in taking anyone from this group, as I can see it going any direction.
Quadrant 2 (Groups 4, 13, 5, 12)
(Group 4 vs. 13, 5 vs. 12 in the Sweet 16 Round)
Viktor Hovland ($9,400)
One of my favorite plays of the week is with Hovland. Yes, this is his first time in this event, but he’s a recent U.S. Amateur Champion where he navigated difficult match play to take home that title. He has also highlighted this event as one that he looks forward to playing as he really loves a match play set up. This could spell trouble for years to come for the U.S. Ryder Cup Team, but I will be happy to have his back in this spot this week.
Hovland is not garnering much attention ownership wise to start the week as his high price tag, and a grouping with the popular and cheap Abraham Ancer ($7,400) have people going another direction. I will be heavy on Hovland out of these two groups, but if I am looking for a cheap flyer it’ll be on what I see as an underrated Max Homa ($7,400) from the Group 13 contenders.
Dylan Frittelli ($6,500)
Groups 5 and 12 are where I am likely to throw my first longshot dart. These groups are led by Bryson DeChambeau and Tony Finau, respectively, neither of whom is a scary proposition in Match Play. I will look at Frittelli, who spoke with the media Monday about his familiarity with Austin Country Club and experience in the 2019 event.
One of the things he mentioned was that he played the final hole in all three of his 2019 matches, two of which were with Xander Schauffele and Sergio Garcia. He fell short in that round, but took some of the best players to the brink in each match and I like his opportunity in a much softer group this year. It’s a long shot for sure, but there is some good reason to take some shares of Frittelli.
Quadrant 3 (Groups 2, 15, 7, 10)
(Group 2 vs 15, 7 vs 10 in Sweet 16 Round)
Louis Oosthuizen ($8,100)
This quadrant is loaded with storylines and filled with top-level players, as well as several guys that have had great success in this format in the past. I deliberated over this quite a bit, so it’s far from a sure thing, but my first play is with Oosthuizen. He has been great in this event in the past, as has a couple of other in this group, but he has the added bonus of better form than Kevin Kisner or Matt Kuchar.
I prefer to go mid-level here as I don’t love Justin Thomas in match play as it is, and the lower group is going to be another with heavy competition. I’ve got Louis with solid upside at the price in a difficult couple of groups to figure out.
Bubba Watson ($7,400)
Any time I see Watson has a win at a course, it immediately becomes a Bubba Track in my mind. The 2018 champion of this event has had a good amount of success in his career in Match Play, and clearly Austin Country Club suits his eye. He will have an extremely tough first matchup with Patrick Reed and then a couple more that will be difficult as well, but if he can find his way out of the group, I really like his chances to advance further.
I think this side of the quadrant is where I will look to save some money as all of the lower seeds are $8,200 or less, and for me are in play to make a run in this event. If I were to pay up, it would actually be for Cantlay over Reed as I just trust his consistency more at a high price.
Quadrant 4 (Groups 3, 14, 6, 11)
(Group 3 vs 14, 6 vs 11 in Sweet 16 Round)
Jon Rahm ($10,700)
When I am not going to Johnson as my top-priced player, I will most often be dropping down to Rahm. He too has a good history in this format with a runner up finish to Johnson in 2017 and some good history at the Ryder Cup. If he can get out of his group, the matchup with Group 14 is one of the easiest in the bracket in my opinion. Daniel Berger and Harris English are two recent withdrawals from events due to rib and back injuries respectively. They, along with Brendon Todd, have struggled in match-play format, making Group 3 one of my favorites to load into a bunch of lineups.
Ian Poulter ($6,700)
I am simply taking the discount with an experience match-play veteran, who commented recently that he feels his game is close. This is the type of event where I think he can put it together in an opening match with a struggling Rory McIlroy, and build some momentum for the rest of the week.
This side of Quadrant 4 is really tough on paper and one where I likely won’t do much with the top seeds, but Scottie Scheffler ($7,900) does catch my eye from Group 14. He has the course knowledge and talent level to make a run out of his group at a price that allows me to fit some of my other top plays.
