The BMW Championship put up another great finish after Jon Rahm and Dustin Johnson dueled it out in 2019, it was Patrick Cantlay and Bryson DeChambeau’s turn in 2020. They slugged it out across six holes before Cantlay did what he was doing all week, draining a long birdie putt to capture the win.
Now, the 30 best players on TOUR from the season gather at East Lake Golf Club for the TOUR Championship. As was the case for the first time last year, there is an adjusted handicap system going into the tournament this week. Cantlay will start the week at 10 under par as the No. 1 player in the standings, and will tee it up with the winner of the first playoff event in Tony Finau. He will start at 8 under and you can see how the rest of the field breaks down here.
DraftKings has done a good job of recognizing the uniqueness of this week and being more dynamic with their pricing. In most standard weeks, the floor price is $6,000 and top is typically around $12,000. This week, Erik Van Rooyen is $5,000, with Cantlay leading the pack at $13,400. It will be fun to build out lineups and determine the optimal way to do so, as I imagine many will get caught up in these starting positions. However, this is a tournament preview article, so let’s get right into the course in Atlanta.
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Course Preview
East Lake Golf Club Preview
We’re heading into the 16th consecutive year the PGA has played its TOUR Championship at East Lake Golf Club, home of the legendary Bobby Jones. Overlooking the Atlanta skyline, East Lake has hosted this event 19 times since 1998, and was appointed the permanent home in 2005. It has been the stage for a number of signature moments on tour, most recently with Tiger Woods’ first victory in his journey back from back surgery in 2018.
The scorecard reflects the same 7,346-yard, par-70 setup that was played in 2020 at the Tom Bendelow-designed track. As in year’s past, it will feature bermudagrass tees, rough and greens with zoysia grass fairways. The rough will be just 2.5 inches in length, but the way the ball tends to sink down in bermuda will make it difficult to predict throughout the event. There’s also water in play on four holes around the course and 74 sand bunkers in total. The greens will continue to roll fast at 12 on the Stimpmeter. Over the past four years, winning scores have ranged from 11 to 13 under par, with Rory’s score boosted five shots to 18 under par in last year’s inaugural stroke-adjusted setup.
The teeth of East Lake Golf Club come out in the five par 4s that play more than 450 yards each, as well as three par 3s of 211 yards or more. There is no gentle introduction at this course, as the 469-yard par 4 first hole plays as one of the two most difficult holes out there. It plays over par with a 27.5% bogey rate and yields birdies just a little more than nine percent of the time. Escaping the first with a par is a good start to any player’s round.
The par 4 14th hole is a beast of a hole and plays as the hardest hole at East Lake year after year in the TOUR Championship. The 526-yard hole is right there in front of the players but poses a difficult tee shot to a narrow landing zone with the added difficulty of the long approach into a bunker-protected green. Similar to the first, it’s likely to over par on the event, and any par will be a good one on this par 4.
All of the par 3s at the TOUR Championship play at solid length with the shortest being the 197-yard second hole. The three others — ninth, 11th and 15th — typically play as three of the most difficult seven holes on the course. The 235-yard ninth is a brutal way to close out the outward nine. However, the 211-yard 15th plays the toughest of the bunch, as it’s a long approach into a peninsula green surrounded by water.
There are two par 5s, which serve as the best scoring opportunities on the course. The sixth and 18th each play as the two easiest holes at East Lake. The 531-yard sixth is reachable in two by everyone in the field. It has allowed a birdie rate of nearly 55%, with an added 3.4% eagle rate and less than 5% bogey percentage. This is a hole where players will fall behind if they don’t take advantage with a birdie. The 18th has seen similar results. The 563-yard par 5 plays to a scoring average of 4.57 and yields an eagle rate of just over 2%. As a reachable closing hole, it can create some drama down the stretch of the final round and may ultimately decide who comes out on top.
Course Horses
Xander Schauffele (T2-2-T7-1)
The first of three players that stand well above the rest around East Lake is Schauffele. He posted the low 72-hole score last year at this event, as he tried to run down Dustin Johnson for the win and $15 million prize. He was unable to do so, leaving him technically T2 on the week. Schauffele did win here in the old version of this event in 2017 and has never finished outside of the Top 7.
Rory McIlroy (T8-1-T7-DNP-1)
Two wins and every finish inside of the Top 8 is a pretty good history for McIlroy. He has found this course to his liking over the years, has been showing flashes of the form from years past that could make him an interesting pick going into the TOUR Championship.
Justin Thomas (T2-T3-T7-2-T6)
Another player that is unable to do anything but finish in the Top 7 at East Lake is Thomas. He matched Schauffele in his finish last year, though from a better starting position, as they both fell short of Johnson. Thomas has yet to have that breakthrough win here, but he’s an intriguing play in a lot of different markets this week as he falls in the sweet spot just outside of the top group.
